A technique for evaluating alternative population forecasts

The authors utilize third, fourth, and fifth order polynomials to illustrate a procedure for evaluating alternative population forecasts. Population for 1930–1970 and projections for 1970 and 1980 for the State of Maryland and its five major regions are fitted to polynomials and utilized for extrapolation of existing trends. The authors suggest that the use of a zero net migration assumption as a baseline permits policymakers to identify the range of growth subject to control, and that the use of derivatives can assist in the interpretation of maxima and minima of these growth paths. Additional research is suggested in areas of population density analysis and in other policy applications of this methodology.     

Joining a Queue or Staying Out: Effects of Information Structure and Service Time on Arrival and Staying Out Decisions

We study a class of single-server queueing systems with a finite population size, FIFO queue discipline, and no balking or reneging. In contrast to the predominant assumptions of queueing theory of exogenously determined arrivals and steady state behavior, we investigate queueing systems with endogenously determined arrival times and focus on transient rather than steady state behavior. When arrival times are endogenous, the resulting interactive decision process is modeled as a non-cooperative n-person game with complete information. Assuming discrete strategy spaces, the mixed-strategy equilibrium solution for groups of n = 20 agents is computed using a Markov chain method. Using a 2 × 2 between-subject design (private vs. public information by short vs. long service time), arrival and staying out decisions are presented and compared to the equilibrium predictions. The results indicate that players generate replicable patterns of behavior that are accounted for remarkably well on the aggregate, but not individual, level by the mixed-strategy equilibrium solution unless congestion is unavoidable and information about group behavior is not provided.JEL Classification: C71, C92, D81     

Deregulation fever spreads to HEW's rules on using human guinea pigs

The federal deregulation effort has reached all the way to the use of human guinea pigs in medical and social science experiments. But in the views of many critics, the Health, Education and Welfare Department hasn't gone far enough with its current proposal to add flexibility to the operations of the boards that review experiments involving human subjects at institutions that receive HEW research money.     

Managing international supply: The balance between total costs and customer service

Many trading companies have taken a global approach to their supply markets, sourcing from low-cost foreign countries in order to achieve cost reductions. There remains, however, a lack of evidence that sourcing internationally actually leads to improved economic performance. This can be explained by two key challenges in terms of how to achieve a balance between: (1) purchasing and logistics costs, and (2) customer service. The purpose of this paper is to examine the organisation and management of international supply from a total cost perspective, taking into account both purchasing and logistics costs, as well as customer service and agility. Previous research into a number of Norwegian companies that have sourced from China has identified four configurations for managing international supply. This paper utilises the supply management literature and an example of a Norwegian retail and wholesale company to analyse and discuss these configurations and their effects on total costs and customer service. The paper's theoretical contribution is the conceptualisation of a total cost perspective on international supply management and the discussion of such costs in relation to customer service. This contribution may, in turn, aid companies that source from foreign, low-cost countries.