Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of the space‐time diffusion patterns of cholera epidemic in Kumasi,Ghana

This study analyses the joint effects of the two transmission routes of cholera on the space‐time diffusion dynamics. Statistical models are developed and presented to investigate the transmission network routes of cholera diffusion. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is employed for a joint analysis of nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatially structured variation, and unstructured heterogeneity. Proximity to primary case locations and population density serve as continuous covariates. Reference to communities is modelled as a spatial effect. The study applied to the Kumasi area in Ghana shows that communities proximal to primary case locations are infected relatively early during the epidemics, with more remote communities infected at later dates. Similarly, more populous communities are infected relatively early and less populous communities at later dates. The rate of infection increases almost linearly with population density. A non systematic relation occurs between the rate of infection and proximity to primary case locations. It is discussed how these findings could serve as significant information to help health planners and policy makers in making effective decisions to limit cholera epidemics.     

Information flows and adaptation in Tanzanian cottage industries

The aim of this research is to identify channels of information flows and their impact on business adaptation and survival. The analysis is set within a theoretical framework of information market failure and information flows. The paper draws on empirical data from a survey comprising approximately 400 small-scale entrepreneurs in dressmaking and woodworking industries at different levels of centrality in four regions in Tanzania. The data reveal that half of the businesses are growing and one-third have increased profitability by significant adaptations last year. Most changes occur in products and design. Customers and the media represent the most important sources of business information, followed by family members and business partners. Independent variables that significantly influence adaptability include customer relations, education, media exposure, social networks, and mobility. Associations are strongly modified by the entrepreneurs’ age and gender and by businesses’ size and location. The paper concludes that cottage industries in Tanzania have a remarkable ability to survive. Garment and woodwork markets are still predominantly local and competition from external businesses is limited. Access to business information and new ideas should be improved, however, to counteract growing competition from the modern sector.     

An analysis of exotic wagers in a parimutuel setting

In US horse racing, there is increasing emphasis placed on the creation of exotic wagers - those bets beyond the standard win, place and show. Bets on multiple races that typically do not result in a winner for several days are of particular interest to the industry. The growing carryover pool helps attract people to the racetrack in a way similar to a growing carryover in the lottery attracts more people to participate. This article examines several multiple race bets and provides a framework for their comparative analysis. The results of the analysis will help racetrack management decide if a proposed bet is appropriate for their particular track. This analysis shows a tradeoff between the difficulty of winning the bet versus the amount of the ultimate payoff. If a bet is too easy to win, then the carryover pool will never reach an attractive level. If the bet is too difficult to win, then the bettors will lose interest before the carryover pool is able to grow sufficiently large. The amount of money wagered daily is an important consideration in determining the appropriate type of exotic wager to implement.     

Managed Care Incentives and Inpatient Complications

Managed care organizations control costs through restrictions on patient access to specialized services, oversight of treatment protocols, and financial incentives for providers. We investigate possible effects of such practices on the care patients receive by studying frequencies of in-hospital complications. We find significant differences in complication rates between managed care and fee-for-service patients. We investigate the sources of this variation by comparing probabilities of complications among patients with different types of managed care coverage and patients treated in different hospitals. For several patient categories, the differences in outcomes we find appear to arise not from differential treatment of patients within hospitals or from heterogeneity in patients, but from variations in care across hospitals that tend to treat patients with different insurance types.     

The Dark Side of Internal Capital Markets: Divisional Rent-Seeking and Inefficient Investment

We develop a two-tiered agency model that shows how rent-seeking behavior on the part of division managers can subvert the workings of an internal capital market. By rent-seeking, division managers can raise their bargaining power and extract greater overall compensation from the CEO. And because the CEO is herself an agent of outside investors, this extra compensation may take the form not of cash wages, but rather of preferential capital budgeting allocations. One interesting feature of our model is that it implies a kind of "socialism" in internal capital allocation, whereby weaker divisions get subsidized by stronger ones.     

“Keep silent and make money”: Institutional patterns of earnings management in China

Assessing the overall quality of Chinese financial data is important to both academic researchers and regulators. Using data from the industrial census of China, we examine the institutional pattern of the manipulation of reported profit statistics by manufacturing firms. This manipulation of profits is called “earnings management.” We find that earnings management is more pervasive in China than in mature market economies such as the U.S., and that Chinese firms appear to follow a “keep silent, make money” strategy by managing their reported earnings to zero. Specifically, we find that increased earnings management is associated with state-owned firms, firms reporting to higher levels of government, and firms in more marketized regions.     

Place attachment as a mediator of the relationship between nature-based recreation benefits and future visit intentions

This study examined the theoretical relationships between consumers’ perceived benefits, place attachment and future visit intentions (FVI) at nature-based recreation and tourism areas, utilizing importance and performance concepts. The desired benefits and perceived attained benefits of consumers were treated as an antecedent to place attachment and FVI in structural models. Results of two separate structural models tests using responses from 934 visitors at the Ocala National Forest in Florida, USA, confirmed that place attachment fully mediates the relationship between benefits desired and FVI, while place attachment partially mediates the relationship between benefits attained and FVI. The former verifies the significant role of place attachment, and the latter validates the importance of place attachment as well as recreation benefit attainment in predicting visitors’ FVI. These findings suggest that both benefits desired and benefits attained are important predictors of place attachment and behavioral intentions. Accordingly, tourism and recreation planners and managers need to provide visitors with recreation opportunities, which maximize visitors’ ability to attain recreation benefits, such as nature exploration, physical fitness and escape. These managerial initiatives would result in increasing visitors’ emotional attachments and intentions to revisit.     

Using Visitors' Motivations to Provide Learning Opportunities at Water-based Recreation Areas

With the increase of nature-based tourism and recreation on public lands in the United States, recreation and tourism planners have an opportunity to provide environmental education to a wide diversity of people. However, recreationists visit natural areas to attain a variety of experiences and benefits, which might or might not include learning. Through an examination of visitors to fresh-water springs in north central Florida, this study identified (1) the recreation benefits visitors to fresh-water springs most desire, (2) the role learning plays in recreationists' motivations to visit water-based recreation areas, and (3) the recreation opportunities (i.e. facilities and services) that will best provide learning opportunities for all visitors. Respondents were divided into four groups according to where they were surveyed and whether or not they had a strong interest in learning. Three of the four groups indicated an interest in developed services and facilities (e.g. visitor centres and museums) to provide for learning opportunities. Results also showed that some visitors' desires for learning benefits were not related to developed facilities and were more closely associated with passive recreation activities and settings. Specific planning implications for the four types of naturebased tourists are described.     

Information Production and Capital Allocation: Decentralized versus Hierarchical Firms

This paper asks how well different organizational structures perform in terms of generating information about investment projects and allocating capital to these projects. A decentralized approach—with small, single–manager firms—is most likely to be attractive when information about projects is "soft" and cannot be credibly transmitted. In contrast, large hierarchies perform better when information can be costlessly "hardened" and passed along inside the firm. The model can be used to think about the consequences of consolidation in the banking industry, particularly the documented tendency for mergers to lead to declines in small–business lending.