Book Review

Tourism and Postcolonialism: Contested Discourses, Identities and Representations. C. Michael Hall and Hazel Tucker (eds). Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group, 2004. 0-415-33102-1     

Perspective: New Product Failure Rates: Influence of Argumentum ad Populum and Self‐Interest

A persistent myth in product innovation and management is that the failure rate of new products is 80% or higher. How does this false idea continue to displace the conclusions of empirical studies since 1977 that the new product failure rate is 40% or less? We examine the influence of a fallacy that encourages people's unthinking acceptance of ideas on new product failure rates and whose appeal rests primarily on an emotional, rather than a reasoned, argument. Self‐interest also plays a major role in keeping this myth alive.     

Frailty models with applications to the study of infant deaths on birth timing in Ghana and Kenya

In hazard models, it is assumed that all heterogeneity is captured by a set of theoretically relevant covariates. In many applications however, there are ample reasons for unobserved heterogeneity due to omitted or unmeasured factors. If there is unmeasured frailty, the hazard will not only be a function of the covariates but also of the unmeasured frailty. This paper discusses the implications of unobserved heterogeneity on parameter estimates with application to the analysis of infant death on subsequent birth timing in Ghana and Kenya using DHS data. Using Lognormal Accelerated Failure Time models with and without frailty, we found that standard models that do not control for unobserved heterogeneity produced biased estimates by overstating the degree of positive dependence and underestimating the degree of negative dependence. The implications of the findings are discussed.     

TRANSATLANTIC CAPITAL MARKET PRICE DISCOVERY DURING A FINANCIAL CRISIS

Previous results show relatively small amounts of time variation in the Hasbrouck (1995) information share across international markets. Using data from a security that was cross‐listed on the New York and London Stock Exchanges in the 1860s, we find that the information share changes dramatically during a financial crisis that began in the foreign market.     

Experienced and Novice Investors: Does Environmental Information Influence Investment Allocation Decisions?

Economic Value Added (EVA) is a performance measure that is being used by an increasing number of companies, but academic research on EVA is limited. In addition, all prior empirical academic studies on EVA have used the firm as the unit of analysis. In this study, we examine the effect of EVA on the performance of individual managers. Specifically, we examine whether managers on EVA-based bonus plans outperform managers on traditional accounting-based bonus plans. We are able to test this because we have access to an EVA-focused company that has managers on both EVA and traditional bonus plans. Our results suggest that managers on EVA bonus plans who understand the EVA concept perform better than managers on traditional bonus plans. However, we find some evidence that the increase in performance results from increased consistency or congruence in the manager's evaluation–reward process rather than from superiority of EVA as a performance measure. Also, we find that the effect of EVA bonuses and EVA understanding differs depending on the area of the firm in which the manager is employed. This suggests that EVA may not be a universally appropriate base for reward systems. *Mohan Lal passed away 24 July 2002. This paper is dedicated to him.