Momentum profits in the Australian equity market: A matched firm approach

This paper examines momentum trading strategies within the Australian equity market over the period 1990 to 2007, inclusive. We analyse excess returns employing both Jegadeesh and Titman's (Jegadeesh, N., Titman, S., 1993. “Returns to buying winners and selling losers: implications for stock market efficiency”. The Journal of Finance, 48:65–91) zero cost investment portfolio approach and a matched control firm approach. We also allow for short sale restrictions, liquidity constraints and transaction costs in the form of bid-ask spreads. Testing reveals that both the Jegadeesh and Titman (Jegadeesh, N., and Titman, S. (1993). “Returns to buying winners and selling losers: implications for stock market efficiency”. The Journal of Finance, 48:65–91.) zero cost investment portfolio approach and the matched control firm approach yield excess profits. While the implementation of short sale restraints increases momentum profitability, the subsequent inclusion of bid-ask spreads results in a reduction in these gains. Further, we find that executing a momentum strategy in Australia results in statistically significant dollar profits.     

A Bootstrap Method for Identifying and Evaluating a Structural Vector Autoregression*

Graph‐theoretic methods of causal search based on the ideas of Pearl (2000), Spirtes et al. (2000), and others have been applied by a number of researchers to economic data, particularly by Swanson and Granger (1997) to the problem of finding a data‐based contemporaneous causal order for the structural vector autoregression, rather than, as is typically done, assuming a weakly justified Choleski order. Demiralp and Hoover (2003) provided Monte Carlo evidence that such methods were effective, provided that signal strengths were sufficiently high. Unfortunately, in applications to actual data, such Monte Carlo simulations are of limited value, as the causal structure of the true data‐generating process is necessarily unknown. In this paper, we present a bootstrap procedure that can be applied to actual data (i.e. without knowledge of the true causal structure). We show with an applied example and a simulation study that the procedure is an effective tool for assessing our confidence in causal orders identified by graph‐theoretic search algorithms.     

The rise and rise of IFRS: An examination of IFRS diffusion

We seek to understand the ever-increasing push towards the international harmonization of accounting standards and particularly the inexorable rise of standards produced by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB). While the primary justifications for the increasing recognition given to these standards (IFRS) are economic, we question whether the empirical evidence to date has yielded convincing support for these arguments. We therefore offer an alternative explanation for the origin and diffusion of IFRS that incorporates social and political factors. Outsourcing the manufacture of accounting standards to a single private agency appears to be a rational, lower cost option – lowering both economic and political costs for individual states as long as they continue to retain residual decision rights with respect to the adoption of IFRS. However, such outsourcing must also be perceived to be legitimate. IFRS confer institutionalized legitimacy because they possess three characteristics required of a technology for global governance. These are sponsorship by powerful interest groups/regulators, internationality and plasticity. We therefore conclude that the widespread diffusion today of IFRS can at best be only partially explained as an economically rational phenomenon. Rather, the demand for legitimate action in the face of tightly coupled and complex global markets is at least equally important in generating support for IFRS.     

Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate

This paper shows that a change in the terms of trade of a commodity-exporting country could cause the relative price of nontraded goods to rise or fall, depending on the strength of income and substitution effects.     

The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility

This study examines the effect of the Great Moderation on the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural changes in the volatility process. We employ generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) specifications, which describe output growth rate and its volatility with and without a one-time structural break in volatility. Second, our data analyses and empirical results suggest no significant relationship between the output growth rate and its volatility; this favors the traditional wisdom of dichotomy in macroeconomics. Moreover, the evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply or even disappears once we incorporate a one-time structural break in the unconditional variance of output starting in 1982 or 1984. That is, the integrated GARCH effect proves spurious. Finally, a joint test of a trend change and a one-time shift in the volatility process finds that the one-time shift dominates.     

Politics, Structure of Protection, and Welfare

Three issues in the political economy of protection are examined. The first, the endogenization of interest group formation, is addressed from the perspective of profitability instead of the difficulty caused by the free-rider problem. The second issue is the determinants of an interest group's political influence. Two sets of determinants—the characteristics of the interest group and the political economic environment faced by that group—are identified. The third is the circumstances under which the presence of more interest groups is socially preferable to fewer. Such circumstances are related to the parameters of the model.     

Domestic and foreign disturbances in an optimizing model of exchange-rate determination

This paper analyzes the effects of various disturbances of domestic and foreign origin in a small open economy under imperfect capital mobility in which the behavioral relationships are divided from optimization by the private sector. In this model the domestic economy jumps instantaneously to its new equilibrium following a change in either the domestic monetary growth rate or domestic fiscal policy. In response to a disturbance in either the foreign interest rate or inflation rate, the economy undergoes an initial partial jump towards its new equilibrium, which it thereafter approaches gradually. The implications of these results for exchange-rate adjustments and the insulation properties of flexible exchange rates are discussed.     

Board diversity in the United Kingdom and Norway: an exploratory analysis

This paper examines the evolving pattern of gender diversity of the boards of directors of leading Norwegian and British companies on a longitudinal basis. The period covered by the study covers the run up to proposed affirmative action legislation in Norway and, as such, affords an insight into corporate actions in this emerging institutional context. The findings demonstrate that, while board diversity has grown substantially in both countries in recent years, it has done so considerably more rapidly in Norway than in the United Kingdom. The analysis highlights the sectoral variation between the countries in the pattern and growth of board diversity and suggests that the vast majority of the overall growth in board diversity is the result of changing firm behaviour rather than sectoral shift in the United Kingdom or Norwegian economies. It is also shown that as diversity has increased there has been no fall in how experienced female directors are; neither is there evidence of a rise in the number of boards that female directors sit on. This suggests that the rapid growth in board diversity has been achieved without any fall in the quality of female directors.