Telling tales

A carefully chosen story can help the leader of an organization translate an abstract concept into a meaningful mandate for employees. The key is to know which narrative strategies are right for what circumstances. Knowledge management expert Stephen Denning explains that, for optimal effect, form should follow function. Challenging one professional storyteller's view that more is better, Denning points out that it's not always desirable (or practical) to launch into an epic that's jam-packed with complex characters, cleverly placed plot points, an intricate rising action, and a neatly resolved denouement. True, if listeners have time and interest, a narrative-savvy leader can use a vividly rendered tale to promote communication between management and staff, for instance, or even to foster collaboration--especially when the story is emotionally moving. However, if the aim is to motivate people to act when they might not be inclined to do so, it's best to take an approach that's light on detail. Otherwise, the particulars can bog listeners down and prevent them from focusing on the message. Drawing on his experiences at the World Bank and observations made elsewhere, the author provides several dos and don'ts for organizational storytellers, along with examples of narratives that get results. The sidebar "A Storytelling Catalog" presents seven distinct types of stories, the situations in which they should be told, and tips on how to tell them. Many of these aren't even stories in the "well-told" sense--they run the rhetorical gamut from one-liners to full-blown speeches--but they succeed because they're tailored to fit the situation. So even though it's common in business to favor the analytical over the anecdotal, leaders with the strength to push past some initial skepticism about the enterprise of storytelling will find that the creative effort pays off.     

Making pro formas perform

Regulators are trying to clear up the muddle created by earnings-report adjustments called "pro formas" that companies issue. Constraining such reporting, as the regulators seem bent on doing, isn't the solution. Firms should increase alternative reporting--and fully account for their accounting.     

The impact of corporate attribites on the extent of mandatory disclosure and reporting by listed companies in Zimbabwe

This article reports the results of an empirical investigation of the degree of influence of eight corporate attributes on the extent of mandatory disclosure and reporting of 49 listed companies in Zimbabwe. Using a disclosure index which consisted of 214 mandated information items, the extent of mandatory disclosure be each sample company was quantified, and was used with other data specific to each sample company to test the relational hypotheses. Although several alternative specifications of multivariate regression models were developed and estimated, only the results of a robust regression analysis which indicated that company size, ownership structure, company age, multinational corporation affiliation, and profitability have statiscally significant positive effect on mandatory disclosure and reporting practices of the sample companies were reported. The quality of external audit, industry-type and liquidity were statistically insignificant.     

Developing Confidence Intervals for Office Market Forecasts

This study focuses on the precision of models that forecast office construction and absorption. The article is novel because for the first time it applies Feldsteins (1971) technique for developing forecast standard errors in the presence of stochastic exogenous variables. The purpose of the article is not to find behavioral relationships but rather to evaluate forecasts. We find that in the case of many office markets, standard errors of long-term forecasts for absorption and completions are quite large, and therefore the forecasts themselves should not be used as a reliable basis for underwriting.     

A Synthesis of Equity Valuation Techniques and the Terminal Value Calculation for the Dividend Discount Model

This paper lays out alternative equity valuation models that involve forecasting for finite periods and shows how they are related to each other. It contrasts dividend discounting models, discounted cash flow models, and residual income models based on accrual accounting. It shows that some models that are apparently different yield the same valuation. It gives the general form of the terminal value calculation in these models and shows how this calculation serves to correct errors in the model. It also shows that all models can be interpreted as providing a particular specification of the terminal value for the dividend discount model. In so doing it shows how one calculates the terminal value for the dividend discount formula. The calculation involves weighting forecasted stocks and flows of value with weights determined by a parameter that can be discovered from pro forma analysis.     

The Limitations of Bankruptcy Prediction Models: Some Cautions for the Researcher

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate potential problems associated with the use of bankruptcy prediction models in current research. The tests in this study demonstrate the problems that may arise when bankruptcy prediction models are inappropriately applied. This analysis evaluated the Zmijewski (1984) and Ohlson (1980) models using time periods, industries, and financial distress situations other than those used to originally develop the models. The findings indicated that both models were sensitive to time periods. That is, the accuracy of the models declined when applied to time periods different from those used to develop the models. The findings also suggest that the accuracy of each model continues to decline moving from the 1988–1991 to the 1992–1999 sample period. Additionally, Ohlson's (Zmijewski's) model was (was not) sensitive to industry classifications. The findings of this study also suggest that the Ohlson and Zmijewski models are not sensitive to financial distress situations other than those used to develop the models. Thus, the models appear to be more generally useful for predicting financial distress, not just bankruptcy.In sum, the results of this study suggest that researchers should use bankruptcy prediction models cautiously. Applying the models to time periods and industries other than those used to develop the models may result in a significant decline in the models' accuracies. Additionally, some bankruptcy prediction models may be more appropriate for evaluating various forms of financial distress as opposed to just bankruptcy. To avoid erroneous applications of bankruptcy prediction models in the future, it is necessary for researchers not only to understand the uses of prediction models, but also to understand the limitations of the models.     

Efficiency in the UK life insurance industry: Mutual firms versus proprietary firms

The paper discusses the main tenets of stakeholder theory and agency theory and goes on to analyse the relative performance of a sample of 100 mutual and proprietary life insurance companies in the UK during the period 1992–1996. The paper concludes that there is weak evidence to support the contention that mutual life insurers are relatively more cost efficient than proprietary insurers. Mutual companies in the sample perform well relative to proprietary companies in terms of annual surpluses and expenses ratios. There is also evidence that fund managers in mutual companies perform at least as well on average as those in proprietary companies.     

Opting Out of Pay Devolution? The Prospects for Local Pay Bargaining in UK Public Services

Abstract : Throughout the 1980s, government ministers strongly advocated the decentralization of pay determination in the public services. Despite this exhortation, by the end of the decade rates of pay and salary structures were rarely determined at workplace level. This paper explores the resilience of national pay determination and considers whether it will survive the radical restructuring of public services initiated in the last few years. The analysis focuses mainly on the health and education services, arguing that distinctive organizational, occupational and political characteristics of the services still constrain the devolution of pay bargaining. In the face of tight budgets and the recent introduction of pay restraint, service managers have sought to make paybill savings through unilateral changes in work organization rather than through devolved collective bargaining.