Is your vision consistent?: A method for checking, based on scenario concepts

Common sense tells us that the future is an essential element in any strategy. In addition, there is a good deal of literature on scenario planning, which is an important tool in considering the future in terms of strategy. However, in many organizations there is serious resistance to the development of scenarios, and they are not broadly implemented by companies. But even organizations that do not rely heavily on the development of scenarios do, in fact, construct visions to guide their strategies. But it might be asked, what happens when this vision is not consistent with the future? To address this problem, the present article proposes a method for checking the content and consistency of an organization's vision of the future, no matter how it was conceived. The proposed method is grounded on theoretical concepts from the field of future studies, which are described in this article. This study was motivated by the search for developing new ways of improving and using scenario techniques as a method for making strategic decisions. The method was then tested on a company in the field of information technology in order to check its operational feasibility. The test showed that the proposed method is, in fact, operationally feasible and was capable of analyzing the vision of the company being studied, indicating both its shortcomings and points of inconsistency.     

Nonlinear dynamics and competing behavioral interpretations: Evidence from intra‐day FTSE‐100 index and futures data

Extant empirical research has reported nonlinear behavior within arbitrage relationships. In this article, the authors consider potential nonlinear dynamics within FTSE‐100 index and index‐futures. Such nonlinearity can be rationalized by the existence of transactions costs or through the interaction between informed and noise traders. They consider several empirical models designed to capture these alternative dynamics. Their empirical results provide evidence of a stationary basis term, and thus cointegration between index and index‐futures, and the presence of nonlinear dynamics within that relationship. The results further suggest that noise traders typically engage in momentum trading and are more prone to this behavior type when the underlying market is rising. Fundamental, or arbitrage, traders are characterized by heterogeneity, such that there is slow movement between regimes of behavior. In particular, fundamental traders act more quickly in response to small deviations from equilibrium, but are reluctant to act quickly in response to larger mispricings that are exposed to greater noise trader price risk. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:343–368, 2006     

Volatility clustering and the bid–ask spread: Exchange rate behavior in early Renaissance Florence

This paper investigates the nature and behavior of the domestic (local) currency market that existed in Florence (Italy) during the late 14th and early 15th centuries (a.k.a. the Early Renaissance). We find that the extant volatility and microstructure models developed for modern asset markets are able to describe the statistical volatility properties observed for the denaro-florin exchange rate. Volatility is clustered and is related to the bid–ask spread. This supports the notion that, although there are huge social, industrial and technological differences between capitalism then and now, individuals trading financial assets in an organized venue behave in a similar manner.     

Manifestations of compulsiveness in the consumer-marketplace domain

The marketing literature exhibits a consistent lack of concern to recognize the distinct differences among the various possible manifestations of compulsiveness in the consumer-marketplace domain. The practice of using terms pertaining to different manifestations of compulsiveness synonymously, especially when the meaning of the term “compulsive behavior” is itself under debate, creates further semantic uncertainties that hinder typological endeavors in the budding area of abnormal or deviant consumer behavior. This article attempts to remove such uncertainties by elucidating and establishing the differences among the above manifestations.     

Options on bond futures: Isolating the risk premium

The introduction of unspanned sources of risk (and frictions) implies that option prices include a risk premium. Prima facie evidence of the existence of risk premia in option prices is contained in the implied volatility smile patterns reported in the literature. This article isolates the risk premium (defined as the simple difference between estimated and observed option prices) on options on U.K. Gilts, German Bunds, and U.S. Treasury bond futures using models that include price jumps and stochastic volatility. This study finds that single and multi‐factor stochastic volatility models with jumps may explain the empirical regularities observed in bond futures. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:169–215, 2003     

Responsibility, Taint, and Ethical Distance in Business Ethics

Much light can be shed on events which characterize or underlie scandals at firms such as Enron, Arthur Andersen, Worldcom, ImClone, and Tyco by appealing to the notion of ethical distance. Various inquiries have highlighted the difficulties in finding or identifying particular individuals to blame for particular events, and in the context of situations as complex as these it can sometimes be helpful to investigate the comparative ethical distance of various participants in these events. In this essay I offer a characterization of ethical distance in terms of moral responsibility, and in doing so I describe and illustrate the rough inverse correlation between moral distance and degrees of moral responsibility. I urge that the concept of ethical distance is capable of shedding light upon situations in which several people are involved in bringing about a state of affairs. I then argue that moral responsibility cannot do justice to all situations involving ethical distance. When the distance between a person and a state of affairs grows sufficiently large, a different type of treatment is called for, and I introduce the notion of moral taint to describe the moral status of agents in these situations.     

The Robustness of the APT to Alternative Estimators

We test the robustness of the APT to two alternative estimation procedures: the Fama and MacBeth (1973) two-step methodology; and the one-step procedure due to Burmeister and McElroy (1988). We find that the APT is indeed sensitive to the chosen estimator and assumptions about the factor structure of stock returns. We believe that our findings have implications for the estimation of asset pricing models in general.     

Initial public offerings in the gaming industry: an empirical study

The fastest growing segment of the hospitality industry is gaming-related business. This industry has experienced record numbers of companies going public, and their stocks are considered favorable long-term investments. Research in the initial public offering (IPO) area suggests that investors acquiring stock at the initial offering price earn large returns. The purpose of this study was to determine if large returns are being experienced for IPOs in the gaming segment of the hospitality industry, and if these large returns were limited to investors who purchased the stock at the initial offer price. There were 14 gaming-related companies selected for the study. The conclusions supported research reporting that the highest returns from IPO investments are made when the stock is purchased at the initial offer price. This study concludes that returns based on the initial offer price were greater than the casino index and the IPO index. When the investor purchased the stock at the first day's closing price, however, returns compared to the two indices were surpassed only after holding the stock for 8 weeks.