A revised Tobit procedure for mitigating bias in the presence of non-zero censoring with an application to milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands

Fixed transactions costs that prohibit exchange engender bias in supply analysis due to censoring of the sample observations. The associated bias in conventional regression procedures applied to censored data and the construction of robust methods for mitigating bias have been preoccupations of applied economists since Tobin [Econometrica 26 (1958) 24]. This literature assumes that the true point of censoring in the data is zero and, when this is not the case, imparts a bias to parameter estimates of the censored regression model. We conjecture that this bias can be significant; affirm this from experiments; and suggest techniques for mitigating this bias using Bayesian procedures. The bias-mitigating procedures are based on modifications of the key step that facilitates Bayesian estimation of the censored regression model; are easy to implement; work well in both small and large samples; and lead to significantly improved inference in the censored regression model. These findings are important in light of the widespread use of the zero-censored Tobit regression and we investigate their consequences using data on milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands.     

OPTIMAL GROWTH STRATEGIES FOR PASTORAL FIRMS IN THE QUEENSLAND BRIGALOW SCHEME

The Brigalow Scheme has been one of Australia's largest dryland development projects since World War II. Large sums of private and public capital have been invested to create 247 new farm firms. Planning the development of these new properties is a complex task. A simulation model of the typical block in Area III of the Brigalow Scheme has been constructed and used to evaluate experimentally the financial performance of various growth strategies. Use of a conjugate directions search procedure with this model has allowed growth strategies to be identified which maximize net worth subject to a low risk of financial failure. These strategies are compared with development programmes which have already been implemented. Significant conclusions are reached both with respect to future management strategies and future land development policies. Methodological advances incorporated in the simulation model are also discussed.     

Acknowledging the importance of BAI accounts

For hospitals, balance after insurance (BAI) refers to revenue from uninsured patients and from patients with patient responsibility after insurance. BAI is a rapidly growing share of hospital revenue as a result of substitution from high-deductible commercial insurance plans-revenue that tends to convert to cash relatively easily and quickly-meaning that an increasing share of hospital cash flow is now due from the patient. Hospitals should make sure that their self-pay patients receive excellent customer service: It not only improves the likelihood of a greater yield, but also-perhaps more important-helps ensure customer loyalty and willingness to recommend the facility to others.     

CARE/CEASA Roundtable on Managing Uncertainty and Risk

Two distinguished Morgan Stanley “alumni” discuss how their management of risk and uncertainty has not only preserved but increased the profitability of their businesses. In both cases—one involving a commodities trading operation and the other a long‐short hedge fund—the key has been to find cost‐effective ways to “cut off the left tails” of the distribution by avoiding naked long or short positions and creating option‐like payoffs with limited downside. In the case of the hedge fund, the combination of longs and shorts with the use of other risk‐reducing strategies has enabled the fund's managers to produce twice the market's returns with only half the volatility (and only one losing year) during the 18‐year life of the fund. In the case of the commodities trading operation, the strategy is described as combining ownership of physical assets with the use of option pricing models to create what amount to “long gamma positions in the asset” that “produce payoffs regardless of whether the asset goes up or down in value.”     

The role of strategic enterprise risk management and organizational flexibility in easing new regulatory compliance

The impact of new regulatory requirements for internal control reporting on an organization's ability to maintain strategic flexibility has been debated in the popular press extensively. This paper tests theory from strategic management to examine the relationship between an organizations' pre-regulatory strength of strategic enterprise risk management (ERM) processes and their ability to react to new regulatory mandates. In the context of companies' adoption of SOX Section 404 internal control reporting requirements, we examine organizations' pre-SOX ERM processes, ERM supporting technologies, and organizational flexibility in order to better understand the antecedents to the difficulty encountered in meeting SOX 404 requirements. Using responses from 113 Chief Audit Executives (CAEs), we find that organizations with stronger strategic ERM processes and flexible organizational structures already in place incurred little difficulty in implementing SOX 404 mandates. On the other hand, organizations using weaker ERM processes, which focused on control compliance, experienced more difficulty. These findings provide key insights into the importance of strategic ERM in effectively complying with new regulatory controls in volatile environments.     

Market intermediaries,storage and policy reforms

Intermediaries play a crucial role in the functioning of agricultural and food markets in developing countries through linking production, imports and storage with consumption. We analyse how competition in the intermediary sector and alternative forms of intermediaries determine the incentives for storage and market outcomes more generally. We apply this framework to the Egyptian wheat sector as an illustrative case study, a country where food security is a priority, where both forms of intermediaries co-exist and undertake storage but where issues of reforms to the role of intermediaries have been raised. Through stochastic simulation, we analyse two changes in government policy: first, the effects of changing the policy instruments with both types of intermediaries undertaking storage; second, relating to market reforms where the private sector replaces the storage function of the parastatal. These issues have wider significance for addressing the interaction between food security and a wide range of policy reforms including de-regulation of parastatals in developing countries.     

Demand responsive transport: towards the emergence of a new market segment

This paper focuses on recent British experience with telematics-based Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) services in rural areas. In recent years, the ability of DRT concepts to provide efficient, viable transport services has been greatly enhanced by the use of transport telematics as demonstrated in a variety of environments across Europe. The success of British local authorities in winning substantial funding under the Rural and Urban Bus Challenge programmes for the implementation of DRT has resulted in widespread interest in flexible forms of transport. It is thus timely to evaluate the impact of this substantial investment. Drawing on the experience of a number of UK schemes, the paper assesses the reasons for the new-found success of what is becoming a relatively well-accepted mode by concentrating on a variety of factors including: service characteristics (particularly route flexibility, flexibility of booking method and pre-booking regime), emerging markets and the overall contribution of DRT to increased social inclusion and intermodality. Impediments to the development of DRT services are highlighted. The paper also discusses current research into the next generation of DRT services and concludes by identifying some key issues for policy-makers concerned with the future implementation of DRT services.     

Do Wages Rise or Fall Following Merger?*

This paper provides a systematic empirical analysis of the effects of merger and acquisition activity on profitability and firm‐level employee remuneration in the UK, using a specially constructed database for the period 1979–91. It finds that both profitability and wages rise following acquisition, and firms that merge within the same industry division experience larger increases in profitability and pay their workers higher wages than those engaged in unrelated acquisitions; i.e. in part, the result of an increase in the efficiency with which labour is used following related acquisition.