The digital future of internal staffing: A vision for transformational electronic human resource management

Through an international Delphi study, this article explores the new electronic human resource management regimes that are expected to transform internal staffing. Our focus is on three types of information systems: human resource management systems, job portals, and talent marketplaces. We explore the future potential of these new systems and identify the key challenges for their implementation in governments, such as inadequate regulations and funding priorities, a lack of leadership and strategic vision, together with rigid work policies and practices and a change-resistant culture. Tied to this vision, we identify several areas of future inquiry that bridge the divide between theory and practice.     

Program duplication in higher education is not necessarily bad

Public systems of higher education have recently attempted to cut costs by providing financial incentives to cut duplicated programs, i.e. programs that are offered at different institutions. We study the profit and welfare effects of reducing program duplication, against the background of a funding system reform in Flanders (Belgium). We find that dropping duplicated programs at individual institutions tends to be socially undesirable, due to the students’ low willingness to travel to other institutions and to the limited fixed cost and variable cost savings. Furthermore, we find that the financial incentives offered to drop programs may be very ineffective, leading to both undesirable reform and undesirable status quo. These findings emphasize the complexities in regulating product diversity in higher education, and serve as a word of caution towards the various decentralized financial incentive schemes that have recently been introduced.     

The effects of workplace learning in higher education on employment and match quality: is there an early-career trade-off?

We investigate whether the choice for a higher education program with a substantial workplace learning component entails an early-career trade-off between on the one hand higher employment chances and better initial matches (when opting for a program with workplace learning) and on the other hand a lower risk of bad match persistence (when opting for a program without workplace learning). To this end, we rely on longitudinal data of Belgian graduates that track their careers up until the age of 29. We model the program choice, the transition to a good match and the preceding transition to a bad match simultaneously. To account for non-random selection into programs and into bad matches, the Timing of Events method is combined with an exclusion restriction. After accounting for observed and unobserved heterogeneity, we do not find evidence for a trade-off. This result contributes to the debate about the efficiency of vocationalizing tertiary education programs through the implementation of workplace learning.     

The real impact of a one-off fiscal restriction: empirical evidence of a flypaper effect in Flemish municipalities

This paper analyses the effects of a one-off fiscal restriction on Flemish local government spending. The authors provide evidence of a ‘flypaper effect’: fiscal restriction stimulated the sensitivity of local spending to grants. This means that higher-level governments (regional/national/supranational) need to take a flypaper effect into account when considering one-off fiscal restrictions on lower-level governments.     

Mortgage timing

We study how the term structure of interest rates relates to mortgage choice at both household and aggregate levels. A simple utility framework of mortgage choice points to the long-term bond risk premium as distinct from the yield spread and the long yield as a theoretical determinant of mortgage choice: when the bond risk premium is high, fixed-rate mortgage payments are high, making adjustable-rate mortgages more attractive. We confirm empirically that the bulk of the time variation in both aggregate and loan-level mortgage choice can be explained by time variation in the bond risk premium, whether bond risk premia are measured using forecasters’ data, a vector autoregressive (VAR) term structure model, or a simple household decision rule based on adaptive expectations. The household decision rule moves in lock-step with mortgage choice, lending credibility to a theory of strategic mortgage timing by households.     

What happens during recessions, crunches and busts?

We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles, for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyse the implications of 122 recessions, 113 (28) credit contraction (crunch) episodes, 114 (28) episodes of house price declines (busts), 245 (61) episodes of equity price declines (busts), and their various overlaps in these countries, over the sample period. Our results indicate that the interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play a major role in determining the severity and duration of a recession. Specifically, we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions.
— Stijn Claessens, M. Ayhan Kose and Marco E. Terrones     

Balance-of-payments crises in a perfect foresight optimizing model

The paper extends the literature on balance-of-payments crises by treating the issue in a generalized equilibrium framework. Investors maximize a non-separble utility function, defined over consumption and real money balances, under the threat of a future collapse of the fixed exchange rate regime. The paper obtains real effects in the form of current account adjustments when agents realize that the fixed regime is not indefinitely viable. New information regarding official foreign lending can cause attacks at the central bank in the form of sudden shifts by investors out of domestic money into foreign bonds.     

New development: Determinants of financial performance in public organizations

In the slipstream of NPM, public organizations worldwide have had to increase their financial performance by adopting management practices. Nonetheless, financial performance (FP) might be mostly predicted by contingencies that are not within direct managerial control. Drawing on evidence from 308 Flemish municipalities, this article shows that organizational and environmental contingencies affect FP, but a significant amount of variation in FP is unexplained—indicating that management could well matter.     

Modeling the effects of grade retention in high school

A dynamic discrete‐choice model is set up to estimate the effects of grade retention in high school, both in the short run (end‐of‐year evaluation) and in the long run (drop‐out and delay). In contrast to other evaluation approaches, this model captures essential treatment heterogeneity and controls for grade‐varying unobservable determinants. In addition, forced track downgrading is considered as an alternative remedial measure. Our results indicate that grade retention has a neutral effect on academic achievement in the short run. In the long run, grade retention, just like forced downgrading, has adverse effects on schooling outcomes and, more so, for less able pupils.     

The Signal of Applying for a Job Under a Vacancy Referral Scheme

We investigate the signalling effect related to participation in active labor‐market programs. To this end, we conduct an experiment in which human resources professionals make hiring decisions concerning fictitious job candidates who apply either under a job‐vacancy referral system or directly. We provide first causal evidence for a substantial adverse effect of referral on the probability of being hired. In addition, we find that employers perceive referred candidates as being less motivated than other candidates.