The Influence of Household Formation on Homeownership Rates Across Time and Race

Homeownership rates equal the number of households that own homes divided by the number of households in the population. Differences in the propensity to form a household, therefore, may contribute to changes in homeownership rates over time in addition to long-standing racial gaps in homeownership. We examine these issues on an age-specific basis using data from the 1970 to 2000 public use microsamples of the decennial census. Results indicate that lower headship rates tend to reduce homeownership rates. This pattern is most notable for individuals in their early and mid 20s. For these individuals, declining headship rates between 1970 and 2000 reduced homeownership rates by three to five percentage points. Moreover, 2000 African American headship rates narrow white–black gaps in homeownership by roughly three percentage points, whereas 2000 Hispanic headship rates widen white–Hispanic gaps in homeownership by two to three percentage points. Thus, controlling for differences in headship behavior, white–black homeownership gaps are somewhat more severe than previously recognized, but the reverse is true for white–Hispanic gaps.     

Business economics in a post-truth era

Business economists face increasing challenges at this political and policymaking juncture. “Experts” and economists are out of favor with the public and with certain policymakers. In response, business economists should be frank about our failures and the limits of our models. We can then be ready to defend truth against falsehood. In our defense of fact-based decision making, we must first assert that data matter, and the unbiased integrity of that data matters. We must support and defend the work of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Census Bureau. Business economists must be story tellers, transmitting historical memory of past crises, of past attacks on our profession and data sources (such President Nixon’s targeting of the Bureau of Labor Statistics).     

Going overboard? On busy directors and firm value

The literature disagrees on the link between so-called busy boards (where many independent directors hold multiple board seats) and firm performance. Some argue that busyness certifies a director’s ability and that such directors are value enhancing. Others argue that “over-boarded” directors are ineffective and detract from firm value. We find evidence that (1) the disparate results in prior work stem from differences in both sample composition and empirical design, (2) on balance the results suggest a negative association between board busyness and firm performance, and (3) the inclusion of firm fixed effects dramatically affects the conclusions drawn from, and the explanatory power of, multivariate analyses. We also explore alternative empirical definitions of what constitutes a busy director and find that commonly used proxies for busyness perform well relative to more complex alternatives.     

Adaptive diffusion models for the growth of robotics in New York state industry

Forecasts are developed for the diffusion of robotics in the state of New York through the year 2015. The chief objective is to compare static approaches with dynamic models for forecasting diffusion processes of various time horizons. Results for a Bass-Mansfield model are compared to those for a dynamic time-varying parameter model. The results indicate the advantages and disadvantages of a robust heuristic approach which smooths data as opposed to providing an optimal fit.     

Online marketing: When to offer a refund for advanced sales

Advance selling is a marketing strategy commonly used by online retailers to increase sales by exploiting consumer valuation uncertainty. Recently, some online retailers have started to allow refunds on products sold in advance. On the one hand this reduces the net advance sales, but on the other hand it allows a higher advance sales price. This research is the first to explore the overall effect of allowing a refund on profits from advance sales, identifying conditions where advance selling with or without refunds (or no advance selling at all) is best. We analytically compare the profits of three advance selling strategies: none, without refund, and with refund. We show that selling in advance and allowing a refund is optimal for products with a relatively small profit margin and small strategic market size, and that the added profit can be considerable. Our results guide managers in selecting the right advance selling strategy. To facilitate this, we graphically display, based on the two dimensions of regular profit margin and strategic market size, under what conditions the different strategies are optimal.