Comparing Firm Failure Predictions Between Logit,KMV, and ZPP Models: Evidence from Taiwan’s Electronics Industry

This paper applies the Taiwan electronics industry data to detect the discriminatory powers of Logit, KMV, and zero-price probability (ZPP) models that represent respectively the regressive fitting model, the option-based pricing model, and the GARCH time series simulation model. In our circumstances, according to cumulative accuracy profile, receiver operating characteristic, and even Brier score, the KMV performs the worst. The disadvantages for KMV are that the equity market exists some nonlinear characteristics, the unknown market value of asset affected by the change of capital structure is not exogenous, and the failure point is difficult to be estimated correctly. Besides, KMV is however too simple to model the fluctuation of the equity value as the GARCH does. On the other hand, the Logit performs above average. To preclude over-fitting and keep model parsimonious, two significant factors are extracted from as many as forty financial variables for the logistic regression on binary failure data. The result of Logit training has perfect discrimination. However, for the post-sample data, the fitting to categorical but not ordinal data makes Logit have the divergent failure predicted probabilities and highest Briser Score. In practical, ZPP GARCHNorm uses just equity value to predict firm failure but it performs remarkably well supposing that downward price trend or volatility persistence in stock price changes is appropriately caught. It implies that the distorted signals such as overreaction of traders and insider trading would definitely impair the ZPP GARCHNorm. Nevertheless, the larger type I error than type II error in all models indicates that the prediction of non-failed firms should be more examined further than that of failed firms.     

团队氛围、董事会内部沟通与战略绩效

本文在理论分析的基础上提出研究假设,通过问卷调查的方式搜集数据,以47家企业董事会454份有效问卷为样本进行实证研究,结果表明,团队氛围中的团队信任对董事会内部沟通具有显著的正向影响;团队氛围中的情感冲突对董事会内部沟通具有显著的负向影响;董事会内部沟通对企业战略绩效中的团队学习力、决策有效性和战略一致性均具有显著的正向影响。研究不仅丰富了董事会团队过程理论,而且能够有效地指导公司治理实践。     

目标管理运用的障碍

1954年彼得·德鲁克(PeterF.Drucker)在其名著《管理实践》中提出了目标管理,德鲁克认为:并不是有了工作才有目标,恰恰相反,应该是有了目标才能确定每个人的工作。所以“企业的使命和任务,必须转化为目标”。自此以后,目标管理的思想被美国企业所广泛应用,并很快为日本、西欧国家的企业所仿效。今天,目标管理已经成为企业管理中最基本的方法之一,该方法也被公认为是德鲁克对管理实践的主要贡献之一。美国总统布什在将2002年度的“总统自由勋章”授予彼得·德鲁克时,提到他的三大贡献之一就是目标管理。但是在今天企业界对目标管理的运用过…     

Entrepreneurship research in China: internationalization or contextualization?

Entrepreneurship is an emerging research field that has received much scholarly attention in recent decades. Given the global scope of this attention, this article compares entrepreneurship research in China with that in the USA and Europe. Based on publications in Social Science Citation Index and Chinese Social Science Citation Index databases over the past 10 years, we use bibliometric method to analyse entrepreneurship research in different regions. Our analysis shows that, on the one hand, entrepreneurship research in China has much in common with such research in the USA and Europe. In addition to borrowing ideas from Western researchers, Chinese entrepreneurship researchers study similar themes and use similar theoretical foundations. On the other hand, Chinese contextual environment helps preserve the uniqueness of its entrepreneurship research. Researchers deal with several context-specific topics such as guanxi, i.e. networks of interpersonal relationships, and its influence on entrepreneurship. We further discuss ways for Chinese researchers to explore the distinct context and contribute to the global literature.     

浅议地勘单位实施企业化改革过程中的职工队伍建设

地勘单位实施企业化改革,必须加强职工队伍建设。要针对存在的问题,深化三项制度改革;加强人才培养和引进,提高职工综合素质;加强市场观念意识的培育;实施企业文化建设工程。     

Nonparametric dynamic panel data models: Kernel estimation and specification testing

Motivated by the first-differencing method for linear panel data models, we propose a class of iterative local polynomial estimators for nonparametric dynamic panel data models with or without exogenous regressors. The estimators utilize the additive structure of the first-differenced model—the fact that the two additive components have the same functional form, and the unknown function of interest is implicitly defined as a solution of a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind. We establish the uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators. We also propose a consistent test for the correct specification of linearity in typical dynamic panel data models based on the _L2$L_2$ distance of our nonparametric estimates and the parametric estimates under the linear restriction. We derive the asymptotic distributions of the test statistic under the null hypothesis and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives, and prove its consistency against global alternatives. Simulations suggest that the proposed estimators and tests perform well for finite samples. We apply our new method to study the relationships among economic growth, the initial economic condition and capital accumulation, and find a significant nonlinear relation between economic growth and the initial economic condition.     

通货膨胀实时预测及菲利普斯曲线的适用性

本文从实时分析的视角,基于多种退势方法的产出缺口最终估计、准最终估计和实时估计序列,分别构建了四类预测模型对我国通货膨胀率进行预测,分析了产出缺口修正效应和滞后阶数变化效应对通胀预测的影响,并进一步考察了产出缺口在通胀预测中的作用及菲利普斯曲线在通胀预测中的适用性。研究结论表明,通胀率的实时预测效果要明显比基于最终数据的差,其中滞后阶数变化效应对实时预测精度的影响大于产出缺口修正效应;尤为重要的是,尽管在最终数据的预测分析中,产出缺口的引入能够提高通胀率的预测精度,但是在实时预测中,产出缺口没有提供有价值的信息,因此"产出—通胀"型菲利普斯曲线在我国通胀实时预测中并不适用。     

上海民族茶商变迁与近代中国茶业组织的发展

上海是近代中国茶叶出口的主要口岸,其民族茶商演变在一定程度上反映了近代中国茶业组织的特点及其变迁历史。"分包"式结构是中国茶业组织的主要特征,它是对茶叶小生产种植方式路径依赖的结果。近代中国茶业竞争力提升有赖于产业组织从"分包"到整合的转变,但洋行对出口经营的垄断制约着这种变迁。     

中国知识服务业国际竞争力研究

中国知识服务业的发展还处于初步阶段,国际竞争力水平存在较大差异,中国要建立创新型社会,就要注重知识服务业的发展,要从战略高度制定知识服务业相应的发展规划,建立相应的支撑体系,发挥政府职能作用,培养和引进专业人才,发展壮大知识服务企业等。     

生物样品中毒品检测的研究进展

毒品滥用已经成为当今日益严峻的全球问题,它给人们和社会带来了各种各样的严重危害,因此对生物样品中毒品物质的检测就变成当务之急。本文主要介绍了几种较为新颖的毒品检测技术,以及它们的研究进展。