中美贸易和汇率问题的分析与建议

近期美国国内关于人民币升值的辩论日益高涨,参议院于4月6日通过一项提议,如果中国不让人民币升值到市场水平,将对从中国进口的商品一律实行27.5%的进口税。越来越多的迹象表明,中美之间将要爆发一场“贸易战争”,其结果则是“两败俱伤”。过去20年美国贸易赤字大幅度增长,中国已经成为美国第一大贸易赤字国家,占美国贸易赤字总量的1/4;不仅中国的劳动密集、低附加值产品在美国市场的占有率不断上升,而且近年来高技术、高附加值产品在美国市场的占有率也迅速扩大,使美国成为先进技术产品净进口或贸易赤字国,的确对美国制造业包括先进技术产…     

浅谈外文藏书建设与图书利用率

文章从广西图书馆外文藏书情况入手，分析了外文图书利用率低下的原因，提出了提高外文图书利用率的对策。     

Do interventions in foreign exchange markets modify investors' expectations? The experience of Japan between 1992 and 2004

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the Bank of Japan's official interventions on the JPY/USD parity during the period 1992–2004. The novelty of our approach is to combine two recent advances of the empirical literature on foreign exchange interventions: (i) drawing on over-the-counter option prices to characterize more precisely the distribution of market expectations; (ii) redefining interventions in terms of events as they tend to come in clusters. Moreover, in order to deal with the features of the data (small sample size, non-standard distribution), we use bootstrap tests.We show that interventions have a significant impact on the mean expectation (the forward rate). The results are more ambiguous for variance. Additionally, we find that the effect of interventions on skewness is significant, robust to different definitions of skewness, and consistent with the direction of interventions. On the contrary, our results clearly show that kurtosis is not affected by interventions. We finally show that: (i) coordination increases effectiveness of interventions; (ii) results are not altered when controlling for other economic and political news.     

世贸组织决策机制的公平性分析

WTO与IMF和世界银行不同,"一成员一票"制度只是在名义上给予发展中国家以平等的表决权,WTO的决策机制仍然缺乏应有的公平性.因此发展中国家需要提出针对性措施,以完善WTO的决策程序.     

Bivariate and multivariate scaled association models. An application to homogamy of social origin and education in Hungary between 1930 and 1979

In this article we compare bivariate and multivariate models for homogamy of social origin and education to test whether bivariate models of homogamy lead to biased results. We use data on Hungarian couples married between 1930 and 1979 and loglinear models of scaled association. The results indicate some differences between bivariate and multivariate analyses. At each point of time bivariate models overestimate homogamy, both with respect to education and social origin. However, results on trends in time do not differ much between the two analyses. The exception is the period 1940–1959, in which bivariate analysis showed decreasing educational homogamy, and multivariate analysis showed an increasing trend. The latter finding can be explained by declining homogamy of social origin, as well as the weaker reproduction and cross-effects in this period.     

专门化、多样化和中国地区工业产业增长的关系

本文通过分析中国29个省（除西藏外）的30个工业产业在1988－1997期间的数据。揭示了工业结构和经济增长之间的关系。本文除研究了传统的生产要素的影响外，重点探讨了产业专门化、专业多样化、竞争度和一省发展的初始水平等因素的作用。结果表明，一个产业外部工业环境的多样性和产业内的竞争度有利于产业的增长，但产业专门影响为负。工业结构对于增长的影响在很大程度上依赖于产业的性质及其地理位置。     

人类后基因组研究进展

人类对自身基因组的研究不断发展，已从结构基因组学转向功能基因组学阶段。本文概述了人类后基因组的研究内容及进展状况。     

中小企业板的推出对我国创业投资的影响

2004年5月，中小企业板在深交所获准设立，一时间，围绕中小企业板对创业投资运作影响的讨论空前热烈。笔者认为，要研究中小企业板对创业投资的影响，就必须从创业板和创业投资的内在机理出发，来研究中小企业板的制度安排是否能保证二者形成良性互动，关键的就是要研究中小企业板在制度上离一个成熟的创业板有多远。目前，学者和业内人士普遍对中小企业板的作用不甚乐观，而近一年来的实践也似乎验证了这一观点，因此，加强中小企业板的制度建设，使之尽快过渡为创业板，已经成了管理者的当务之急。