Adoption of weather‐index insurance: learning from willingness to pay among a panel of households in rural Ethiopia

In this article we examine which farmers would be early entrants into weather‐index insurance markets in Ethiopia, were such markets to develop on a large scale. We do this by examining the determinants of willingness to pay for weather insurance among 1,400 Ethiopian households that have been tracked for 15 years as part of the Ethiopian Rural household Survey. This provides both historical and current information with which to assess the determinants of demand. We find that educated, wealthier individuals are more likely to purchase insurance. Risk aversion is associated with low insurance take‐up suggesting that models of technology adoption can inform the purchase and spread of weather index insurance. We also assess how willingness to pay varied as two key characteristics of the contract were varied and found that basis risk reduces demand for insurance particularly when the price of the contract is high, and that provision of insurance through groups is preferred by female headed households and individuals with lower levels of education.     

Is Asian per capita GDP panel stationary?

The goal of this paper is to examine whether per capita GDP for 15 Asian countries is panel stationary. We apply a panel test for stationarity that allows for multiple structural breaks developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (Econ J 8: 159–179, 2005). Our main findings are: (1) when we apply conventional tests, such as the ADF and KPSS univariate tests without structural breaks, we find little evidence for stationarity; (2) when we apply the KPSS univariate test with multiple structural breaks, we find evidence of stationarity for 10 out of 15 countries; and (3) when we apply the KPSS panel test with multiple structural breaks, we find overwhelming evidence of panel stationarity of per capita real GDP for different panels of Asian countries.      

DO PERMANENT SHOCKS EXPLAIN INCOME LEVELS? A COMMON CYCLE–COMMON TREND ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL INCOME LEVELS FOR CHINA

Abstract. In this paper, we analyse per capita income levels of China's three main regions: the western region, the eastern region and the central region using common cycle and common trend tests. Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing shocks into permanent and transitory components. We find that: (i) there is evidence for two cointegrating relationships and one common cycle; and (ii) the variance decomposition analysis of shocks provides evidence that over short horizons, permanent shocks play a large role in explaining variations in regional per capita incomes.     

A Blessing and a Curse: Institutional Embeddedness of Longstanding MNE Subsidiaries in Emerging Markets

This article examines the institutional strategies of multinational enterprises (MNEs) operating in an emerging market, drawing attention to how longstanding foreign subsidiaries proactively negotiate their involvement with socio-political actors. We build on institutional logics to explain how MNE subsidiaries develop sustained political, cultural, and cognitive embeddedness. Using an inductive, interpretive study of four century-old Dutch MNE subsidiaries with a colonial legacy in Indonesia, we examine these three dimensions of the institutional environment, finding that local employees embedded in both the MNE and the host country sets of logics ‒ rather than expatriate managers ‒ most effectively facilitated sustained institutional embeddedness. Our findings also suggest that embedding practices in host institutional contexts and developing structures that align with host institutional expectations provided a platform for the unfolding of institutional strategies by local employees. However, MNE subsidiaries face contrasting logics between home and host country institutions, placing significant strains on MNEs’ ability to enact change.     

An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility for China, 1952–2000

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952–2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988 Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 231–254. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Johansen & Juselius (1990 Johansen, S and Juselius, K. 1990. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52: 169–210. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10–12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development – consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis – played a key role in China's fertility transition.     

Exploring the nexus between tourism,remittances and growth in Kenya

Recently there has been a surge in remittances inflow to Kenya while tourism receipts appears to be declining, albeit gradually. In light of these developments, the paper explores the plausible effects of tourism and remittances on per worker output. We use the annual data over 1978–2010 periods and the ARDL bounds approach within the augmented (Solow in Q J Econ 70:65–94, 1956) framework. The regression results show that tourism has a marginal net negative effect in the short-run however positive effect in the long-run. Remittances, on the other hand, have a net positive effect in short-run and negative effect in the long-run. The key results from the Toda–Yamamoto Granger non-causality (Toda and Yamamoto in J Econom 66:225–250, 1995) results show a unidirectional causation from remittances to output per worker; and from output per worker to tourism. A unidirectional ‘combined effect’ of all variables causing output and remittances, respectively are evident as well. Conclusively, tourism is one of the leading drivers of Kenyan economy. To boost gains from tourism, the sector needs to align policies to the Kenya 2030 strategic framework with significant focus on expanding markets, boosting investment, and growth. Remittances market need to be further developed strategically with the view to improving Kenyan migrant led growth initiatives with plausible links to tourism development.     

Investigating business cycle asymmetry for the G7 countries: Evidence from over a century of data

In this paper we test for asymmetric behaviour of business cycles for the G7 countries, using the entropy-based test for asymmetry suggested by Racine and Maasoumi [Racine, J.S., & Maasoumi, E. (in press-a). A versatile and robust metric entropy test of time-reversibility, and other hypotheses, Journal of Econometrics; Racine, J.S., & Maasoumi, E. (in press-b). A robust entropy based test for asymmetry. Econometric Reviews.]. We find overwhelming evidence of symmetry. In only 14% of the cases, we find some evidence of asymmetric behaviour of GDP and per capita GDP. More importantly, the period marked by the flexible exchange rate regime, over which much of the empirical work for the G7 countries has been conducted, evidence suggests that the two GDP series are symmetric.     

Purchasing Power Parity and aggregation bias for a developing country: The case of Mexico

This paper investigates long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) between the US and Mexico. We use a panel of disaggregated price data between the US and Mexico with a long time series to look at two types of aggregation bias. The first is examined in Imbs et al. — which we refer to as estimator aggregation bias — and the second is put forth by Broda and Weinstein — hereafter, data aggregation bias. The findings indicate substantial estimator aggregation bias and data aggregation bias. Although estimates using aggregate data and imposing homogeneous coefficients provide little evidence of PPP, findings with disaggregated data and heterogeneous coefficient estimators offer strong support. The results also suggest the presence of small-sample bias as examined in Chen and Engel, but with little effect on the qualitative results. Tradable goods and non-tradable goods show little distinction in convergence rates. Estimated half-lives are lower under flexible than fixed exchange rates and indicate rapid convergence during the Mexican peso crisis.     

A panel data approach to the demand for money and the effects of financial reforms in the Asian countries

Alternative panel data estimation methods are used to estimate the cointegrating equations for the demand for money (M1) for a panel of 14 Asian countries from 1970 to 2005. The effects of financial reforms are analyzed with estimates for two sets of sub-samples and two break dates. Our results show that money demand function has been stable and financial reforms are yet to have any significant effects. Since there is no evidence for instability in the demand for money, the central banks of these countries should use money supply, instead of the rate of interest, as the monetary policy instrument.