A comparative study of finite sample properties of band spectrum regression estimators

Monte Carlo methods are used to compared the small sample properties of several approaches to seasonal adjustment when the objective is to estimate regression coefficients. The methods compared are band spectrum regression, the dummy variable method and the moving average method. The results seem to indicate that band spectrum regression will have superior small sample properties compared with the dummy variable method, which again seemto be preferable to ordinary least squares and to the moving average method.     

The allocation of ideological structures

This article tries to make allocation in the sociology of knowledge more teachable. What may appear as a sectarian magic is transformed into a rational procedure to be used by teacher and student alike. Allocation requires a number of steps by which (1) the ideological structure is made part of an ideology; and (2) the ideology is related to a particular social situation of past or present either by reflecting it in symbolic expression or by reflecting the exact opposite.The old puzzle of how ideological relativism can be asserted from a theoretical position, which — by social background — cannot be anything but relative in itself, falls by the wayside. Temporarily positivism is claimed for any viewpoint which allows empirical verification. It asserts its relativisim but never reaches absolute and final truth. Relative advantages only can be claimed for the many comprehensive social theories at any given time.The term imputation is replaced by the term allocation in this article. Imputation is a direct translation of the German word Zurechnumg. Borrowed from economic theory, this term is unnecessarily complicated. We cannot do more than allocated ideologies in a manner not amenable to precise numerical imputation.     

Sources of persistence in employment adjustment - Denmark 1974-93

This paper aims at identifying and quantifying different sourcesof persistency in employment adjustment. Based on a dynamiclabour market model an explicit distinction is made betweenreal and nominal (prices and wage) propagation mechanisms. Thetheoretical analysis provides the basis for an empirical analysisof nominal wages, nominal prices, and employment for the manufacturingsector in Denmark from 1974.1 to 1993.4. We find that nominalrigidities prevail in the short run and that nominal propagationmechanisms play a larger role than real propagation mechanisms.The persistency mechanism identified here are substantial froma business cycle perspective, but not in relation to the spanof time over which unemployment has persisted at a high level.     

On the Role of Labour Market Reform for the Enlargement of a Monetary Union

This paper studies the incentives to join a monetary union,and the incentives to reform within a monetary union and withinthe candidate countries, respectively. We present some "ordersof magnitude" evidence on the size and balance of the incentiveeffects for joining and being joined, and on the desirabilityof reform in and out of the existing EMU in Europe. It is foundthat countries will only want to join a monetary union wherethere has been sufficient labour market reform, and where labourmarkets are more flexible than their own. But existing memberswill want the same properties of their new partners as well.(JEL F02, F15, F33, F 42)     

Upstream Pricingand Advertising Signal Downstream Demand

This paper considers price and advertising decisions by a monopolist manufacturer who is privately informed about the strength of consumer demand. Consumers respond to advertising and to the retail price chosen by an uninformed retailer on the basis of his beliefs about demand. This signaling game has a unique intuitive equilibrium outcome in which a high-demand manufacturer chooses his full-information pair of wholesale price and advertising. When demand is low, the wholesale price is distorted downward from its full information level, whereas demand-enhancing advertising may be distorted in either direction. Dissipative advertising is not distorted because it is never used.     

Dynamic Spanning in the Consumption-Based Capital Asset Pricing Model

Under the assumptions of the Consumption-based Capital AssetPricing Model (CCAPM), Pareto optimal consumption allocationsare characterized by each agent's consumption process beingadapted to the filtration generated by the aggregate consumptionprocess of the economy. The wealth processes of the agents,however, are adapted to the finer filtration generated by aggregateconsumption and the conditional distribution of future aggregateconsumption. Therefore, in order to achieve pareto optimal consumptionallocations, a sufficiently varied set of assets must existsuch that any wealth process adapted to this finer filtrationcan be implemented by dynamically trading in that set of assets.We provide sufficient conditions for the existence of such aset of assets based on dynamically trading contingent claimson aggregate consumption. In addition, we give sufficient conditionsfor the existence of equilibria in a dynamically effectivelycomplete market in which agents are only able to trade in contingentclaims on aggregate consumption, the market portfolio of firms,and a (numeraire) zero-coupon bond. We demonstrate the roleof short- and long-term contingent claims on aggregate consumptionfor the implementation of Pareto optimal allocations inthe presenceof short- and long-term risks. In addition, in the presenceof personal risks, we demonstrate the role of insurance contracts.JEL Classification: G13.     

ASEAN’s science,technology and innovation policy: tension and integration between intergovernmentalism and sub-regional cooperation

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we research the role of the ASEAN level for science, technology and innovation (STI) in Southeast Asia. The key question is how the intergovernmental STI system relates to the diversity and traditional linkages in the region. Empirically, we address this question with data on STI inputs and outputs as well as qualitative evidence from interviews and participatory observation. We highlight a mismatch between national and intergovernmental dynamics in STI. Intra-ASEAN STI cooperation remains weak. We discuss multilateral research funding and increased cooperation in patent regimes as examples of new types of regional cooperation.     

Criteria for optimal production under uncertainty. The state-contingent approach

The state-contingent approach to production economics presented by Chambers and Quiggin provides a new basis for deriving optimality criteria for production under uncertainty. In the present paper criteria are formally derived for risk-averse producers. It is not possible to derive useful criteria for strictly risk-averse producers, but useful criteria for risk-neutral producers are presented for three different types of input. Based on a formal definition of 'good' and 'bad' states of nature, the use of inputs and levels of production of strictly risk-averse producers are compared to those of risk-neutral producers. Depending on the type of input, risk-averse producers may use more or less input than risk-neutral producers.