The evidence presented in the paper rejects the twin deficit hypothesis for the Austrian current account balance during the
last two decades. The results are based on an estimate of a vector error correction model including quarterly data for the
current account balance and potentially relevant variables driving its dynamics. We compute the variance decomposition of
the current account's forecast error and its generalized impulse responses to shocks in the innovations of the system. The
results in favor of intertemporal expenditure reallocation cannot be reproduced within a second analysis including the current
account and a measure of net output, however. The estimated implicit current account balance, interpreted as the discounted
expected change in future net output, does not follow the actual behaviour of the current account.
First version received: June 1999/Final version received: March 2001 相似文献
The increase in demand for nature-based tourism brings economic and educational benefits but risks the introduction of invasive species. Increasing the length of tourist trips can better balance these benefits and risks by maintaining revenues while reducing the number of unique contacts with tourists. Changing the relative prices of trips can induce tourists to take longer trips. We hypothesized that providing information about the negative externalities of tourism could improve the effectiveness of such pricing strategies.
We administered one of two discrete choice surveys to tourists considering a trip to the Galapagos. One of the surveys described the Galapagos as a fragile ecosystem susceptible to invasive species; the second described it as a standard nature-based destination. For each sample, we estimated the probability of the tourist choosing a short versus long trip, given the tourist's personal information and trip options presented to him. We then simulated the demand for trips using three pricing strategies. We found that providing information on invasive species significantly increased the efficacy of strategic pricing. We propose using a two-prong approach to tourism management: educate potential tourists about the islands’ vulnerabilities, and simultaneously increase the per-day cost of short trips relative to that of longer trips. 相似文献
This paper demonstrates howadditional rents are generated in a fisherycharacterized by intraseasonal variation infish characteristics, including size,condition, and composition. Based on anexpanded conceptual model of the optimalharvest rule, fish characteristics affect preand post harvest production yields and outputprices. A dynamic empirical model, which uses asystem of quality characteristics and anhedonic equation, illustrates the complexrelationships and management choices associatedwith internalizing seafood qualitycharacteristics in a hake fishery. The modelretains the regulated open access managementsystem, but controls intertemporal andintersectoral quotas, production portfolios,and total allowable catch. Results demonstratethat including revenue-side effects frominternalizing fish quality can generatesignificantly greater rents and reduce therelative benefits of increased productionyields. If excluded, bioeconomic models canunderestimate the level of regulatory rentdissipation and overemphasize managementobjectives such as full utilization, whichcould misdirect processing decisions and resultin a suboptimal resource management plan.Implications for data collection,multidisciplinary analysis, and improvements inmarine resource management are discussed. 相似文献
Model specification for state space models is a difficult task as one has to decide which components to include in the model and to specify whether these components are fixed or time-varying. To this aim a new model space MCMC method is developed in this paper. It is based on extending the Bayesian variable selection approach which is usually applied to variable selection in regression models to state space models. For non-Gaussian state space models stochastic model search MCMC makes use of auxiliary mixture sampling. We focus on structural time series models including seasonal components, trend or intervention. The method is applied to various well-known time series. 相似文献
The first objective of this article is to clarify which model best captures the structure and trend of the influence of social origin on children's education. The second objective is to analyse how general conclusions on historical trends in educational reproduction change if we add mother's status background to the model. Six contrasting hypotheses are derived fromthe body of literature dealing with models on families' socioeconomic status. All hypotheses are translated into empirical models and their explained variance is compared. A pooled data set is used that contains data from the Netherlands, West Germany, and the USA. The Modified Dominance Model, that distinguishes the influence of the highest from thelowest status parent, has the best model fit. Regarding the second objective we see that adding the mother's influence to that of the father's does not change general conclusions on trends in educational reproduction. Over time the influence of both parents decreases continuously. However, the influence of the mother's education and occupational status on children's educational attainment is substantive. 相似文献
A depository institution's interest rate risk (IRR) exposure is the sensitivity of its earnings or market value of equity to changes in interest rates. Since the mid-1980's, bank regulators have developed broadly applied, centralized IRR models which are used to help assess individual institutions' capital adequacy. This paper tests the effectiveness of the earliest of these regulatory IRR models: the incomegap estimates calculated by the Federal Home Loan Bank Board (FHLBB) during the latter 1980's. Despite the many problems caused by the broad application of generic assumptions and the presence of embedded options, we find that the FHLBB gap estimates provided a significant measure of IRR exposure. We believe that these results bode well for the success of ongoing, more sophisticated regulatory modeling efforts. 相似文献
Selbstst?ndigkeit f?rdern - Mobilit?t ist die F?higkeit, sich in seiner Umgebung frei zu bewegen und die Aktivit?ten des t?glichen
Lebens unabh?ngig auszuführen. Im Alter ist sie eine wichtige Voraussetzung für ein selbstst?ndiges Leben. Oft entscheidet
gerade die Mobilit?t darüber, wie sich für den betagten Menschen die weitere Lebenssituation gestaltet. 相似文献
This paper is concerned with the growth and development of two fields of study which are customarily separated in both theory and practice. Those who specialize in one area, whether as students, teachers or research workers, are not necessarily familiar with, or required to learn, the state of knowledge in the other, although, as we shall show, there is a considerable commonality of interest. To some extent, this situation is an accident of history and the first part of this paper deals with the events and influences leading to the emergence of each field of study. In the second part, common strands and factors leading to the convergence of the two fields are considered. The third section examines the “state of the art” and evaluates current strengths and weaknesses. Finally, an appraisal is made of the direction of likely future trends. 相似文献
Brand managers exhibit considerable effort to define intended brand associations to anchor in consumers' minds. They follow a credo deeply rooted in branding literature: intended brand associations drive consumer response and brand equity. This article investigates the benefits of a strong overlap of actual consumer brand associations and management-intended brand associations (brand association match). The article presents results from two large-scale studies (3353 and 1201 respondents) involving one consumer goods and one service brand with multiple operationalizations of consumer response (attitudinal and behavioral). The results show that consumers with high brand association match show more positive brand response. However, after accounting for the valence of associations match does not add explanatory power. This outcome challenges a key foundation of brand management. The discussion identifies reasons why match may not be necessary to achieve response and provides arguments why the results do not imply free play for brand managers. 相似文献