Inflation Targeting versus Nominal Income Targeting

In this paper we analyze two different target regimes, flexible inflation targeting and nominal income targeting, under discretion in a simple dynamic macro model. The key results of our paper are: First, for both targeting regimes optimal monetary policy response leads to a shock-dependent feedback rule. Second, a demand shock is completely offset by both monetary strategies. Third, in case of a supply shock there is a significant difference between the two different targeting regimes. Under inflation targeting the policy makers face a trade-off between inflation and output stabilization. This trade-off depends on the weight Φ the policy makers attach to output stabilization relative to inflation stabilization in the loss function. In contrast, under nominal income targeting policy makers face a constant trade-off between inflation and real output growth: an increase in inflation leads to a fall in real output growth by an equal amount. Furthermore, in Appendix A we analyze a (linear) commitment solution for inflation targeting and compare it with the discretionary case. Under commitment, inflation is smaller and the output gap is larger than under discretion. In Appendix B, we investigate inflation targeting in a two-period time-lag version of the model. The qualitative results on the trade-off between inflation and output growth remain the same as in the basic model without time lag. Received May 3, 2000; revised version received December 3, 2001 Published online: February 17, 2003     

Heterogeneity of plural forms: A revised transaction cost approach

Strategies pushing firms to adopt plural forms and the heterogeneity of solutions they endorse have attracted increasing attention. This paper proposes a theoretical framework that combines asset specificity and uncertainty to explain why there are plural forms and focuses on the key role of uncertainty, within a given range of asset specificity, to predict what and when specific types of plural forms should be observed. Propositions derived from this model are tested on an extensive set of cases from the agribusiness sector. The empirical richness of these cases allows going beyond the existing literature, which has essentially focused on franchising.     

Transfer empirischer Evidenz

For decades, the guiding principle and the programs of journalism studies at German universities have been gyrating around the integration of theory and practice. However, “integration” has been and still is interpreted in different manners: While education programs have, by and large, become non-contentious, research programs have diverged to journalistic practice depending on distance and proximity. Thereby, research is pushing against its limits, while at the same time impeding progress towards the aim of common-identity journalism studies as an integrative teaching and research field at universities. This paper appraises and formulates an amended concept and program. The drive to amend fuels on change in journalism, a context in which—due to the fast pace of innovation—journalistic education and research are faced with novel requisites. The aims and tasks of journalism studies are not any longer perceived as merely reconciling theory and practice into integrative education programs; rather, while acknowledging systemic disparities between science and social practice, the new paradigm includes integrative research that formulates, tests and evaluates transfer methods with a view to implementing evidence-based strategic decision-making in newsrooms. It is an explicitly normative concept: The quality of journalism represents the nexus of theoretical positions, choice and development of methodology, as well as outcome interpretation.     

PRIVATIZATION OF WATER: EVALUATING ITS PERFORMANCE IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD

Private‐sector provision of water has been promoted in developing countries since 1990 in order to expand water service coverage to low‐income households. Decades later, the consequences of privatizing water utilities are still disputed. Some scholars have found that areas with privatized water services see positive development effects, while others contend that the private‐sector supply of a social good will always lead to its under‐provision. However, does more privatization of water provision in developing countries actually bring about more access to water? This paper hypothesizes that more private participation in water provision will not ensure more access to water at the national level. The relationship is tested using data on weighted percentages of private ownership of water utilities, and access to improved water sources from 1990 to 2015 across 62 countries. Multivariate OLS results indicate a positive relationship but with no statistical significance. 2SLS results, on the other hand, indicate a positive, small and statistically significant effect of water privatization on water access. Nonetheless, the causal mechanism behind these results must be further explored, given that the measured effect could be capturing the result of an increase in investment that is associated with private ownership of water utilities.     

How do changes in monetary policy affect bank lending? An analysis of Austrian bank data

Using a panel of Austrian bank data we show that the lending decisions of the smallest banks are more sensitive to interest rate changes, and that for all banks, sensitivity changes over time. We propose to estimate the groups of banks that display similar lending reactions by means of a group indicator which, after estimation, indicates each bank's classification. Additionally, we estimate a state indicator that indicates the periods during which the lending reaction differs from what we normally observe. Bayesian methods are used for estimation; a sensitivity analysis and a forecast evaluation confirm our model choice. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Economic Transition and Growth: A Replication

Phillips and Sul (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2009, 24 , 1153–1185) provide an algorithm to identify convergence clubs in a dynamic factor model of economic transition and growth. We provide a narrow replication of their key results, using the open source R software instead of the original GAUSS routines. We are able to exactly replicate their results on convergence clubs, corresponding point estimates and standard errors. We comment on minor differences between their reported results and their clustering algorithm. We propose simple adjustments of the original algorithm to make manual intervention unnecessary. The adjustments allow automated application of the algorithm to other data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A flexible regime switching model with pairs trading application to the S&P 500 high-frequency stock returns

This paper develops the regime classification algorithm and applies it within a fully-fledged pairs trading framework on minute-by-minute data of the S&P 500 constituents from 1998 to 2015. Specifically, the highly flexible algorithm automatically determines the number of regimes for any stochastic process and provides a complete set of parameter estimates. We demonstrate its performance in a simulation study—the algorithm achieves promising results for the general class of Lévy-driven Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes with regime switches. In our empirical back-testing study, we apply our regime classification algorithm to propose a high-frequency pair selection and trading strategy. The results show statistically and economically significant returns with an annualized Sharpe ratio of 3.92 after transaction costs—results remain stable even in recent years. We compare our strategy with existing quantitative trading frameworks and find its results to be superior in terms of risk and return characteristics. The algorithm takes full advantage of its flexibility and identifies various regime patterns over time that are well-documented in the literature.     

Does sustainable investing reduce portfolio risk? A multilevel analysis

This study complements and extends prior research on the risk mitigation role of sustainable investing. We use a continuous measure of funds' sustainability traits, rather than a categorical approach, and assess impact on risk directly rather than by looking at fund performance in up versus down markets. We find that sustainable investing plays a significant role in mitigating total, systematic, and idiosyncratic risk of equity funds, even after controlling for other fund characteristics. Further evidence indicates that the explanation for the risk reduction role of sustainable funds largely runs through traits of the firms held in the funds.