Technology Foresight Activities in Korea and in Countries Closing the Technology Gap

This article discusses technology foresight in selected countries which were politically dependent (colonial) before World War II and considered as “under-developed” in the post-war period. Most of them show considerable economic dynamism in the 1990s, which is not always based on their own scientific and technological capability. For this group of countries, national exercises in technology foresight are likely to be an important tool in planning the strategic direction for science and technology development in order to catch up economically as well as socially. In Korea, which has recently become an OECD member, comparative advantage based on factors such as low wages and protected industries are no longer effective as the economy is now wide open to the world. Foresight is being used to look at comparative advantages based on Korea’s own knowledge-creating activities. In southeast Asian countries, foresight is still in an infant stage, but most of these have medium-term planning cycles and have undertaken longer-term vision studies. In South Africa, a national foresight project is running, as is an adapting foresight process to make the large national research organization fit. In Latin America, an agenda has been set up which indicates the desire of several countries to engage in foresight activities using different approaches.     

The Benefits of Diverse Preferences in Library Consortia

We study the case in which a library consortium increases the aggregate payoff of the member libraries. We find that libraries with similar preferences are likely to lose from building a consortium and that those with diverse preferences are likely to gain by doing so. Combining libraries with diverse preferences implies that their valuation for different publishers' journals is more symmetric, which intensifies competition among publishers for scarce combined budgets. A tension between short term and long term considerations might generate a ‘library consortium trap.’ Our insight can be applied to other buyer groups as long as competition is generated by buyers' budget constraints.     

Evidence of latecomers’ catch-up in CoPS industries: a systematic review

ABSTRACT

There has been a controversial issue in existing literature regarding whether latecomers can catch up in Complex Products and Systems (CoPS) industries. In an attempt to address this issue, we employ systematic review method and analysed 39 previous studies. We found substantial evidences of catch-up or leapfrogging in CoPS industries. The catch-up patterns in the CoPS industries were similar to those in the mass-produced goods sectors. There were 15 success or failure factors for catch-up across CoPS industries, and the top five most frequently appeared factors were government support, technology transfer, in-house R&D, industry ecosystem or cluster, and external alliances.     

A retail benchmarking approach to efficient two‐way access pricing: no termination‐based price discrimination†

We study access pricing rules that determine the access prices between two networks as a linear function of marginal costs and (average) retail prices set by both networks. When firms compete in linear prices, there is a unique linear rule that implements the Ramsey outcome as the unique equilibrium, independently of underlying demand conditions. When firms compete in two‐part tariffs, there exists a class of rules under which firms choose the variable price equal to the marginal cost. Therefore, the regulator can choose among these rules to pursue additional objectives such as increasing consumer surplus or promoting socially optimal investment.     

Using Bayesian methods in strategy research: an extension of Hansenet al.

Hansen, Perry, and Reese ( 2004 ) recently argued for and demonstrated the utility of Bayesian methods for research associated with the resource‐based view (RBV) of the firm. In this paper, we propose that Bayesian approaches are highly relevant not only for strategy problems based on the RBV, but also to its extensions in the areas of dynamic capabilities and co‐evolution of industries and firms. Further, we argue that Bayesian methods are equally applicable for a wide range of strategy research questions at both the micro‐ and macro‐level. Bayesian techniques are especially useful in addressing specific methodological challenges related to firm‐ and individual‐level effects, firm‐level predictive results, precision with small samples, asymmetric distributions, and the treatment of missing data. Moreover, Bayesian methods readily permit the engineering and updating of more realistic, complex models. We provide a specific illustration of the utility of Bayesian approaches in strategy research on entry order and pioneering advantage to show how they can help to inform research that integrates micro‐ and macro‐phenomena within a dynamic and interactive environment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

反向的民主化：第三波民主的问题

第三波民主化浪潮中的国家,多在建立法治、公民社会、领导人问责制等现代国家的基本制度之前建立了自由选举制度。相反,第一波民主化的国家则在普选引入之前已经先建立了现代的国家制度。第三波民主化中这种反方向的民主化造成了在大多数国家中形成的是不完全的民主制度。不完全的民主有三种发展前景:(1)继续向前,完成民主化;(2)民主选举制度失败,转向一种不民主的制度;(3)在统治精英低效但公众对民主政治要求也低的情况下,更会堕入一种低水平平衡的陷阱。本文通过分析三个新民主国家的大众观念调查数据,展示这样一种不完全民主的各种问题。这三个国家的前身各不相同:过去属于专制体制的俄罗斯、过去曾有民主和专制的捷克、过去是专制军事政权的韩国。     

Nongovernmental organizations as institutional actors in international business: theory and implications

Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have emerged as major actors in international business. NGOs have assumed a particularly prominent role in influencing the interaction between business and governments over the terms of international business rules, norms, and practices, especially the conditions applied to international investment projects. In this paper, we argue that the rise of NGOs as important institutional actors requires new perspectives on state–firm interactions in an era of increasing globalization. Host governments and multinational corporations (MNCs) must now critically assess the potential impact of nongovernmental actors on investment plans and projects. Drawing from institutional, agency, and stakeholder theory, we develop a model to help organizations evaluate and assess the relative importance of NGOs to the stability and longevity of international investment projects and the emergent impact of NGOs on investment projects at different stages of the investment cycle. We use the specific circumstance of infrastructure privatization and state-owned enterprise restructuring to demonstrate the potential value of this perspective to MNCs and host governments. We suggest this approach is also useful in evaluating classes of other stakeholders, and in examining other situations in which governments, companies, and NGOs negotiate over the terms of international business exchanges.     

Using Delphi for a Long-Range Technology Forecasting, and Assessing Directions of Future R&D Activities The Korean Exercise

This article summarizes and discusses major findings of the Korean Delphi. The Korean Delphi was first carried out on a large scale. The results of the Korean Delphi include the forecast time of realization and an evaluation of importance for about 1200 technological topics. The forecast time of realization was estimated and compared in both Korea and the world's leading countries. We also provide a comparison of the Delphi results among Korea, Japan, and Germany, with some topics in common in the areas of information, electronics, and communications technology. This study interprets the results of the Delphi and explores the future directions of R&D activities with relevance to the Korean Society.     

LONG‐RUN RISKS IN THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES: ESTIMATION

This paper estimates a model in which persistent fluctuations in expected consumption growth, expected inflation, and their time‐varying volatility determine asset price variation. The model features Epstein–Zin recursive preferences, which determine the market price of macro risk factors. Analysis of the US nominal term structure data from 1953 to 2006 shows that agents dislike high uncertainty and demand compensation for volatility risks. Also, the time variation of the term premium is driven by the compensation for inflation volatility risk, which is distinct from consumption volatility risk. The central role of inflation volatility risk in explaining the time‐varying term premium is consistent with other empirical evidence including survey data. In contrast, the existing long‐run risks literature emphasizes consumption volatility risk and ignores inflation‐specific time‐varying volatility. The estimation results of this paper suggest that inflation‐specific volatility risk is essential for fitting the time series of the US nominal term structure data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multinational investment and host country development: Location efficiencies for services offshoring

Services offshoring has become an important source of investment and development in many emerging economies. While much attention has been paid to companies’ use of services offshoring to lower costs, not all of these offshoring activities have yielded the anticipated results. Thus, the choice of where to locate offshore facilities is an important yet complex one that has substantial implications for both the investing firm and host country. In this paper, we adopt the perspectives of service firms located in the U.S. and empirically examine the attractiveness of host countries for offshoring of services. Using data envelopment analysis (DEA), we examine which countries use their resources or inputs most efficiently in order to produce outputs that make them attractive for services offshoring. We find that China, India, Ireland, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Slovakia, Spain, and the U.K. are particularly attractive locations for services offshoring. All of these countries have at least one core efficiency-creating competency among the key inputs of wages, education, and infrastructure. We discuss implications for firms and government policy makers and offer recommendations for future research.