人民币汇率波动背景下的“钟摆效应”探析

2012年以来,人民币对美元汇率继续呈现双向波动趋势,升值和贬值预期交替出现。企业等市场主体根据人民币汇率预期变动,灵活调整外币资产负债配置结构,使财务运作呈现较为明显的“钟摆效应”。“钟摆效应”的出现,反映了国内市场主体对汇率风险意识的增强,也影响到外汇资产在央行和市场主体间配置的变动,增加跨境资金流动的波动性。为更好地适应国内市场主体外币资产配置需求的变化,文章提出相关政策建议。     

Foreign bank penetration and the lending channel in emerging economies: Evidence from bank-level panel data

This paper examines the main implications of recently increasing foreign bank penetration on bank lending as a channel of monetary policy transmission in emerging economies. Using a dynamic panel model of loan growth, we investigate the loan granting behavior of 1273 banks in the emerging economies of Asia, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe during the period from 1996 to 2003. Applying the pooled OLS, system GMM, and panel VAR estimators, we find consistent evidence that foreign banks are less responsive to monetary shocks in host countries, as they adjust their outstanding loan portfolios and interest rates to a lesser extent than domestic private banks, independent of their liquidity, capitalization, size, efficiency, and credit risk, and although there exists a bank lending channel in the emerging economies, it is declining in strength due to the increased level of foreign bank penetration. We also explore possible driving factors for the different responses of foreign and domestic banks to monetary policy shocks by investigating foreign banks’ different behavior during banking crises and tranquil periods, the effects of mode of entry to host countries, the home-country effects, and the response of foreign banks from OECD countries vs. all foreign countries including non-OECD countries. We suggest the access of foreign banks to funding from parent banks through internal capital markets as the most convincing explanation.     

How Sensitive Is Investment to Cash Flow When Financing Is Frictionless?

I analyze the sensitivity of a firm's investment to its own cash flow in the benchmark case where financing is frictionless. This sensitivity has been proposed as a measure of financing constraints in earlier studies. I find that the investment–cash flow sensitivities that obtain in the frictionless benchmark are very similar, both in magnitude and in patterns they exhibit, to those observed in the data. In particular, the sensitivity is higher for firms with high growth rates and low dividend payout ratios. Tobin's q is shown to be a more noisy measure of near-term investment plans for these firms.     

Valuation Effects for Asset Sales

This study provides evidence that the outcome for shareholders resulting from asset sales is determined at the time of transaction by the value for the asset sold. Assets sold above market value are followed by positive and significant abnormal returns over the following three months; these returns are magnified in firms where the balance of power in corporate governance favors shareholders. Abnormal returns following undervalued asset sales are insignificant from zero, indicating value-preservation. Value-preservation when the assets are sold below market value becomes less likely as firms approach financial constraints. The reverse is true when assets are sold above market value. This evidence is documented for apartment REITs, which have a large number of comparable transactions available for estimating expected market values.     

论金融稳定政策工具和制度体系

金融稳定政策工具分为独立性工具、辅助性工具、协调性工具和补充性工具,金融稳定制度体系有狭义和广义之分.     

区域性金融服务产业集群的价值实现研究

区域性金融服务产业集群已经成为现代金融产业组织的基本形式之一,是区域经济发展的重要推动力量,实现其社会经济价值是其发展的应有之义。在界定金融服务产业集群概念的基础上,运用价值链理论,分析了金融服务产业集群的价值系统,构建了其价值链模型,并提出了区域性金融服务产业集群的价值实现途径。     

The Effects of Urbanization on Insurance Consumption—The experience of China

Cross‐country studies of insurance find little support for a hypothesized urbanization–insurance consumption link. Unlike the literature, we argue and find that the relationship is positive. Our study refines the literature relating economic development and financial service activities. The empirical evidence in the existing literature is based on cross‐country samples that are criticized as unrepresentative because they are disproportionately composed of highly developed economies and consequently have limited range in the variables considered; this limits confidence in the resulting evidence. The current study overcomes these empirical difficulties by focusing on one large country with a unique recent development pattern. Like the existing studies, we find a positive insurance–economic development link. In contrast to cross‐country studies, we find that insurance consumption is influenced by urbanization and that the country's World Trade Organization entry had a differential impact on its insurance markets.