Environmental Tax Policy and Long-Run Economic Growth

This paper focuses on two competing effects of environmental taxation on long-run economic growth. One is a negative force, which hampers production; the other is a positive force, which increases the level of environmental quality bequeathed to future generations. The analysis shows that there exists a critical level of the tax that balances one force with the other. If the tax is initially set below (or above) the critical level, then raising the tax rate is beneficial (or harmful) to economic growth.
JEL Classification Numbers: D62, D91, H26, O11, O30, Q20     

Asymmetric oligopoly, international trade, and welfare: a synthesis

This paper analyzes the relationship between market shares and welfare under the assumption of Cournot-oligopolistic interdependence in production. The model is general enough to deal with multiple countries, oligopolists with different levels of marginal costs within each country, and any distribution of world demand across countries. It is found that the elimination of a minor firm harms the country if the country's total production is very little. However, such a policy always benefits the country if it exports the commodity. The welfare effect of production subsidies and the case of foreign ownership of firms are also discussed.     

Assessing the validity of the Delphi technique

Forecasting is an essential factor in policy formulation and planning. It helps determine the direction of future actions. While a number of forecasting techniques are utilized to forecast the future, it is important to know just how valid those forecasting techniques can be. The Delphi technique has been called the ‘cornerstone of futures research’. This study reports the results of the assessment of the accuracy of the forecasts derived from the Delphi technique. Twenty-five experts in the communication field assessed 24 trends and 17 events in the state of Hawaii as of 1991. The expert assessments were then compared with the forecasts made by utilizing the Delphi technique 16 years earlier. The results showed that the trend forecasts were significantly correlated with the trend assessment. They also showed that the Delphi technique had accurately forecast approximately half the events that could be evaluated as of 1991. Results from this study lend support to the use of the Delphi technique in long-range forecasting and reveal some interesting findings in forecasting the developments in communication in Hawaii.     

What determines firms’ intention to postpone product differentiation?

Abstract

In present-day Japan, more firms are beginning to apply postponed product differentiation in favor of providing mass-customized products. Mass customization can lead to competitive advantages in satisfying consumers’ individual needs. We propose a causal model to describe why and how Japanese distributors decide to postpone product differentiation and supply mass-customized products. The model was empirically tested by structural equation modeling with a dataset from Japanese automobile dealers, who have employed highly advanced mass customization systems and are world leaders in this practice. The results show that two environmental factors, uncertainty and innovation, affect firms’ expectations of their customers’ intentions to purchase mass-customized products and, in turn, firms’ decisions regarding postponing product differentiation in favor of mass customization. Mass customization has a high potential for growth in the future due to increasing levels of uncertainty and evolving forms of innovation.     

Difference or Ratio: Implications of Status Preference on Stagnation

We consider a dynamic macroeconomic model where households derive utility from wealth comparisons. Measure of relative affluence can be the ratio to, or the difference from, the social average. These two specifications lead to quite different equilibrium consequences: under the ratio specification full employment is always realised, whereas under the difference specification persistent shortage of aggregate demand can result. Using data of an experiment on status concern, we empirically find that the difference specification of relative affluence fits the data better than the ratio specification. Our work may help in understanding mechanisms behind recent stagnation in developed economies.     

The role of mobile handsets in advanced network service evolution: Evidence from Japan

This paper aims at a better understanding of the mechanisms of mobile network service evolution through a closer examination of the context of mobile handsets. It aims first to establish quantitatively that mobile handsets are a determinant of mobile network service evolution patterns, and second, to develop a consistent perspective capable of explaining the evolution of various mobile network services. Despite the fact that mobile handsets are indispensable to users of mobile network services, surprisingly little is known about the role of these handsets in mobile network service evolution. This paper provides quantitative evidence of a positive relationship between intra-network-carrier penetration rates for mobile network service subscribers and mobile handsets designed for these services. The relationship is such that if one network service is diffused more than another, the mobile handsets related to the more diffused service are similarly more widely diffused in the market, and vice versa. The evidence is derived from an analysis of two mobile network services in Japan, mobile Internet and third generation mobile, initiated by NTT DoCoMo and KDDI. There are no existing studies that consistently explain the mechanisms of different mobile network service evolution patterns. Since the positive relationship that emerges from the analysis is consistent for both cases, by examining the mechanisms underlying this relationship, the paper develops an adequate and consistent perspective based on a constituent model reflecting the technological and competition structure of mobile network services. From this perspective, this positive relationship can be explained as the similarity or dissimilarity in essential technology ownership distribution across constituents. This perspective describes mobile network evolution in terms of changes in the distribution of essential technology ownership and, therefore, could be generalised more widely.     

A second chance at success: A political economy perspective

This paper characterizes a stationary Markov-perfect political equilibrium where agents vote over income taxation that distorts educational investment. Agents become rich or poor through educational investment, and the poor have a second chance at success. The results show the following concerning the cost of a second chance. First, when the cost is low, the economy is characterized by high levels of upward mobility and inequality, and a low tax burden supported by the poor with prospects for upward mobility. Second, when the cost is high, there are multiple equilibria with various patterns of upward mobility, inequality and redistribution. Numerical examples show that the shift from a high-cost economy to a low-cost economy may reduce social welfare.     

Japanese Economy: Two Lost Decades and How Many More?

Intereconomics - By introducing wealth preference to a dynamic macroeconomic model, instead of those market distortions, we can deal with the secular deficiency of aggregate demand and a...     

A simulation analysis of systemic counterparty risk in over-the-counter derivatives markets

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - In this paper, we propose a simulation framework to assess systemic risk in over-the-counter derivatives markets. We incorporate credit valuation...     

Does the Macroeconomy Predict UK Asset Returns in a Nonlinear Fashion? Comprehensive Out‐of‐Sample Evidence

We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of linear and nonlinear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR) and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models and a range of linear specifications including models with GARCH type specifications. Results demonstrate UK asset returns require nonlinear dynamics to be modelled with strong evidence in favour of Markov switching frameworks. Our results appear robust to the choice of sample period, changes in loss functions and to the methodology employed to test for equal predictive accuracy. The key findings extend to a similar sample of US data.