Investigating stability and linearity of a German M1 money demand function

Starting from a linear error correction model (ECM) the stability and linearity of a German M1 money demand function are investigated, applying smooth transition regression techniques. Using seasonally unadjusted quarterly data from 1961(1) to 1990(2) it is found that the money demand equation considered is both linear and stable. After extending the sampling period until 1995(4) a clear structural instability due to the monetary unification on 1 July 1990 is found and subsequently modelled. A non-linear specification for the extended period is presented and discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monetary Policy in Austria–Hungary, 1876–1913: An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of the Central Bank’s Discount Rate and the Liquidity Ratio

This paper presents a model to explain the official discount rate of the Central Bank of Austria–Hungary from 1876 to 1913. The discount rate is assumed to depend on the liquidity ratio of the Bank, defined as the ratio of its stock of metals to banknotes issued, and on changes in foreign discount rates. The paper also presents an equation explaining the liquidity ratio. We use “not equally spaced chronologically ordered data” referring to the 50 discount rate changes enacted. The regressions confirm that the liquidity ratio was the main determinant of the discount rate and that Germany (and not Great Britain) played a significant role in determining the Austro–Hungarian discount rate and the liquidity ratios, supporting the view that the classical gold standard was a decentralized multipolar system rather than a system fully dominated by London as suggested by Keynes. The regressions also suggest that, although Austria–Hungary had an inconvertible paper currency (1879–1892) and fluctuating exchange rates (1876–1895) and formally joined the gold standard only in 1902, it “shadowed” the behaviour of gold standard Central Banks with such consistency that the stability of the estimated regressions was relatively unaffected by the frequent institutional changes.

Employee and management rights and responsibilities under the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA): An overview

The Americans With Disabilities Act (ADA) significantly expands the rights of disabled individuals in their access to employment opportunities, services, telecommunications, public accommodations, and transportation. This article provides an overview of the ADA with a particular emphasis on employment issues under Title I of the Act affecting the rights and responsibilities of disabled employees and employers. Permitted and prohibited actions by employers are discussed, as well as factors used to determine the definition and application of key terms under the Act. Some potential impacts of the ADA on the interests of disabled individuals and employers are discussed. Recommendations for effective management policies to comply with the employment provisions of the ADA are also included.     

Environmental strategies in the paint and coatings industry

In general, a proactive strategy entails an anticipatory approach to problems. It is also associated with taking the initiative and doing more than is strictly needed. The nature of proactivity that businesses may display with respect to the environment is considered and also its meaning in terms of strategic behaviour and technological development. A conceptual framework is developed that differentiates between types of proactive strategies. This framework is based on a study of the paint and coatings industry in Great Britain and the Netherlands and is applicable to both countries. Even though the big international paint companies play a decisive role in the development and introduction of cleaner technologies, it is argued that the small- and medium-sized paint companies deserve special attention. Not only is proactive behaviour by the big companies important, but also proactive strategies by the small- and medium-sized companies, even if they are limited in scope, because the latter determine at national and local levels the pace and nature of the transformation that has to take place to produce a sustainable economy. This process is crucial to ecological modernization if it is intended not only to get rid of old-fashioned ways, but also to create new opportunities for economic upgrading and rejuvenation.     

Currency substitution and the stability of the Italian demand for money before the entry into the monetary union, 1972–1998

A money demand function for M2 is estimated for Italy for the period 1972–1998 within an error correction framework. This period has been characterized by major structural changes in the Italian financial system and by major changes in monetary policy. This study takes these changes into account. Moreover, currency substitution, especially between Italy and Germany is incorporated into the model. By accounting for structural breaks and currency substitution a stable money demand function can be found.Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 373, is gratefully acknowledged. We thank Uwe Hassler, Goethe Universität, Frankfurt, and Carsten Trenkler, SFB 373, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, for helpful comments. An earlier version has been presented at the ESEM 2001, Lausanne.     

Risk and Policy Shocks on the US Term Structure

We document two stylized facts of US short‐term and long‐term interest rate data seemingly incompatible with the expectations hypothesis: low contemporaneous cross‐correlation and relatively slow adjustment to long‐run relationships. We explain these features in a small structural model with three types of randomness: While a persistent monetary policy shock implies immediate identical reactions through the term structure, both a transitory policy shock and an autocorrelated risk premium allow for sustained deviations. Indeed, we find important impacts and persistence of risk premia and considerable contribution of transitory policy shocks to short rates. Results of standard expectations hypothesis tests can be rationalized.     

Interest rate linkages in Europe before and after the introduction of the European Monetary System

In this paper, possible interest rate linkages between the U.S. and Europe and within Europe are investigated with special reference to the EMS. We use three-month domestic money market rates from 1974 to 1979, from 1983 to 1989, and from 1990 to 1994 for Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the U.K., and the U.S. For all periods, we find a strong German influence on the development in the other European countries and, for the first two periods, at best a very weak direct influence from the U.S. However, Germany does not dominate the other countries totally. There are significant relations between the EMS member countries which are not influenced by Germany, and there are relations to other EMS members than Germany from outside this system. Revised Version, March 1995. — Earlier versions of this paper wer presented at seminars at the Universities of Zürich, Bielefeld and Leuven, and at the Konstanzer Seminar on Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy. We thank the participants of these seminars as well as two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. — We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft by Grant No. 322 147. We thank Wilhelm-Johannes Jaenicke for performing the computations and Anna Rushing-Jungeilges for editing the paper in English.