Citizens’ adaptive or avoiding behavioral response to an emergency message on their mobile phone

Abstract

Since November 2012, Dutch civil defense organizations employ NL-Alert, a cellular broadcast-based warning system to inform the public. Individuals receive a message on their mobile phone about the actual threat, as well as some advice how to deal with the situation at hand. This study reports on the behavioral effects of NL-Alert (n = 643). The current risk communication literature suggested underlying mechanisms as perceived threat, efficacy beliefs, social norms, information sufficiency, and perceived message quality. Results indicate that adaptive behavior and behavioral avoidance can be predicted by subsets of these determinants. Affective and social predictors appear to be more important in this context that socio-cognitive predictors. Implications for the use of cellular broadcast systems like NL-Alert as a warning tool in emergency situations are discussed.     

Comparative analysis of government forecasts for the Lisbon Airport

The study examines the official forecasts for airline passenger numbers for the Lisbon metropolitan area. Auto-regressive and exponential smoothing models are used to develop independent forecasts for passenger numbers. The forecasts show that the government forecasts are at the top end of estimates and should be considered overly optimistic.     

Interest Rate Linkages Between the US and the UK During the Classical Gold Standard

One of the most critical and debated issues about the functioning of the classical gold standard is the issue of asymmetries in balance of payments adjustment. London is believed to be by several authors the 'conductor of the international orchestra' (Keynes, 1913, p.  19). This view implies a highly asymmetrically working system which tended to shift the burden of adjustment from the UK onto other countries. The alternative view is that the classical gold standard was a 'decentralised multipolar system', at least with reference to the balance of payments adjustment among industrial countries. In this paper we analyse causal relationships, impulse response functions and coherence between weekly US and UK 6-month interest rates using data from the National Monetary Commission (1910) covering the period 1890–1907. The main conclusion is that London was more vulnerable particularly in the medium run to changes in US interest rates than vice versa, contradicting the 'conductor of the orchestra view'. Comparing the result of the present study with those of Tullio and Wolters (1996), it seems that London was even more vulnerable to interest rate changes in New York than to changes in Paris and Berlin.     

“Every person in an organization is involved in some elements of management accounting.”

Praxis / ArtikelTitelthema

“Every person in an organization is involved in some elements of management accounting.” Interview with AN Raman, Central Council Member of the Institute of Cost and Work Accountants of India     

WAS LONDON THE CONDUCTOR OF THE INTERNATIONAL ORCHESTRA OR JUST THE TRIANGLE PLAYER? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ASYMMETRIES IN INTEREST RATE BEHA VIOUR DURING THE CLASSICAL GOLD STANDARD, 1876–1913

This paper analyses the interrelationships of official and private discount rates between seven European financial centres and in particular between London, Berlin, and Paris. Looking at the days and directions of all official discount rate changes in the seven centres, pairwise leads and lags are analysed. As to private discount rates, which seem to be stationary, correlations and coherencies are measured, multivariate Granger-causality tests are performed and impulse response functions are calculated. The paper shows that there are strong mutual feedbacks between interest rates in London, Paris, and Berlin, suggesting that the classical gold standard was a decentralized, multipolar system.