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71.
Richard Cebula 《Atlantic Economic Journal》2003,31(3):255-265
Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, the paper empirically examines the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield on high grade long term tax free municipal bonds in the U.S. To clarify this deficit or interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primary budget deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. In a model that includes federal personal income tax rates and net international capital flows, as well as money supply growth, the ECM estimates strongly suggest a bi-directional relationship between the primary budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield. Budget deficits apparently do matter! William Simon's concerns were justified.The author is indebted to P. A. V. B. Swamy for ideas and helpful suggestions and Will Perry for data assembly and processing. 相似文献
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above the certainty level while for additive uncertainty the price should be lower than the certainty level. This note gives an intuitive explanation for the result after first presenting a parsimonious review
of the two models. We also discuss which, if either, of the two models is more realistic.
Received December 14, 2001; revised version received July 16, 2002
Published online: April 30, 2003
We thank referees for helpful comments. Ciaran Driver would like to acknowledge the research facilities from ANU, Canberra
for their help in writing this paper. 相似文献
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Explaining Japan’s recession 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Benjamin Powell 《Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics》2002,5(2):35-50