Eliciting the core of a supermodular capacity

Summary. The paper utilizes duality theory to derive an exact representation of the core of a supermodular capacity for finite-state-space Choquet expected utility preferences. Using the dual representation we develop an algorithm that uses information on willingness to pay and willingness to sell to elicit a supermodular capacity in a finite number of iterations.Received: 21 February 2003, Revised: 26 May 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D81. Correspondence to: Robert G. ChambersThe authors thank J. Quiggin and an anonymous referee for comments that improved the paper.     

Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members

We address the issue of foreign exchange risk and its macroeconomic determinants in several new EU members. We derive the observable macroeconomic factors—consumption and inflation—using the stochastic discount factor (SDF) approach. The joint distribution of excess returns in the foreign exchange market and the factors are modeled using a multivariate GARCH-in-mean specification. Our findings show that both real and nominal factors play important roles in explaining the variability of the foreign exchange risk premium. Both types of factors should be included in monetary general equilibrium models employed to study excess returns. To contribute to the further stability of domestic currencies, the new EU members should strive to implement stabilization policies aimed at achieving nominal as well as real convergence with the core EU members.     

Quality Measurement and Contract Design: Lessons from the North American Sugarbeet Industry

This paper examines contracts used in the North American sugarbeet industry. Though quite similar in many respects, the contracts we study vary across processing firms in the set of quality measures used to condition contract payments to growers. This is somewhat surprising, given the homogeneous nature of the processors' finished product (refined sugar). It seems unlikely that processors differ significantly in how they value the various attributes of a sugarbeet, and such a difference is perhaps the most natural reason to expect variation in the structure of quality incentives across processors. Previous attempts to explain the observed variation in sugarbeet contracts have focused on differences in organizational form across firms. In this paper, we provide an alternative explanation that relies on variation across production regions in growers' ability to control the relevant measures of sugarbeet quality.     

Spatial spillovers in emerging market spreads

We use novel spatial econometrics techniques to explore spillovers in the sovereign bond market for 24 emerging economies during 1995–2010. The article extends the previous literature focusing on spillover effects from advanced to emerging economies by analyzing transmission of shocks across emerging markets. After controlling for the impact of global factors, we find strong evidence of spillovers from both sovereign spreads and macroeconomic fundamentals in neighboring emerging economies. In addition to the geographical proximity, the channels of spatial transmission include trade and financial linkages. The results of the article highlight the importance of accounting not only for spillovers from advanced economies to emerging markets but also across emerging markets when analyzing sovereign spreads.     

Buy low,sell high: Price gaps and neoclassical theory

This paper considers the simple neoclassical economics of price gaps in the absence of income effects. Our guiding principle is that price gaps reflect a fundamental economic principle: buy low and sell high. It is demonstrated that neoclassical theory makes clear and economically testable predictions about these price gaps.     

Destined to Receive: The Impact of Remittances on Household Decisions in Armenia

The paper uses data from Armenia to test the implications of remittance flows on behavior of receiving households. We find that remittance‐receiving households work fewer hours and spend less on the education of their children. While saving more, these households are not leveraging their savings to borrow from the banking system to expand their business activities. This evidence suggests that the benefits of remittances might be overstated and emphasizes the importance of measuring their impact in a general‐ rather than a partial‐equilibrium context.     

The identification of technology regimes in banking: Implications for the market power-fragility nexus

Neglecting the existence of different technologies in banking can contaminate efficiency, market power, and other performance measures. By simultaneously estimating (i) technology regimes conditional on exogenous factors, (ii) efficiency conditional on risk management, and (iii) Lerner indices of German banks, we identify three distinct technology regimes: Public & Retail, Small & Specialized, and Universal & Relationship. System estimation at the regional level reveals that greater bank market power increases bank profitability but also fosters corporate defaults. Corporate defaults, in turn, lead to higher probabilities of bank distress, which supports the market power-fragility hypothesis.     

The South Caucasus Conflicts in the Context of Struggle for the Eurasian Heartland

The article examines the geopolitical developments in the South Caucasus after the collapse of the USSR in the context of the Russian-American geopolitical struggle. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, three recognised states of this region, should not only solve a set of complex problems such as to pass effectively through the difficult path of state-building, to respond adequately to the developments of the Russian-American struggle, but they should also take into consideration the impact of that struggle on the resolution of the conflicts in the region. The article aims to disclose the patterns and the peculiarities of geopolitical struggle in the South Caucasus, its impact on the process of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, that recently gained more significance, and also the obstacles and perspectives of the resolution of this conflict.     

Determinants of bank interest margins in Russia: Does bank ownership matter?

This paper analyzes interest margin determinants in the Russian banking sector with a particular emphasis on the bank ownership structure. Using unique bank-level data covering Russia's entire banking sector for the 1999–2007 period, we find that the impact of a number of commonly used determinants such as market structure, credit risk, liquidity risk and size of operations differs across state-controlled, domestic-private and foreign-owned banks. At the same time, the influence of operational costs and risk aversion is homogeneous across ownership groups. The results overall suggest that the form of bank ownership needs to be considered when analyzing interest margin determinants.