A reduced form framework for modeling volatility of speculative prices based on realized variation measures

Building on realized variance and bipower variation measures constructed from high-frequency financial prices, we propose a simple reduced form framework for effectively incorporating intraday data into the modeling of daily return volatility. We decompose the total daily return variability into the continuous sample path variance, the variation arising from discontinuous jumps that occur during the trading day, as well as the overnight return variance. Our empirical results, based on long samples of high-frequency equity and bond futures returns, suggest that the dynamic dependencies in the daily continuous sample path variability are well described by an approximate long-memory HAR–GARCH model, while the overnight returns may be modeled by an augmented GARCH type structure. The dynamic dependencies in the non-parametrically identified significant jumps appear to be well described by the combination of an ACH model for the time-varying jump intensities coupled with a relatively simple log-linear structure for the jump sizes. Finally, we discuss how the resulting reduced form model structure for each of the three components may be used in the construction of out-of-sample forecasts for the total return volatility.     

UK UNCUT UNRAVELLED

This paper examines four major tax cases that have been the focus of campaigns by the group UK Uncut. The criticisms of the tax affairs of the companies concerned are shown to be unfounded and ill‐conceived. Furthermore, there would be major economic benefits from reducing corporate taxation.     

Jump tails,extreme dependencies,and the distribution of stock returns

We provide a new framework for estimating the systematic and idiosyncratic jump tail risks in financial asset prices. Our estimates are based on in-fill asymptotics for directly identifying the jumps, together with Extreme Value Theory (EVT) approximations and methods-of-moments for assessing the tail decay parameters and tail dependencies. On implementing the procedures with a panel of intraday prices for a large cross-section of individual stocks and the S&P 500 market portfolio, we find that the distributions of the systematic and idiosyncratic jumps are both generally heavy-tailed and close to symmetric, and show how the jump tail dependencies deduced from the high-frequency data together with the day-to-day variation in the diffusive volatility account for the “extreme” joint dependencies observed at the daily level.     

Escalating penalties for repeat offenders: a note on the role of information

The severity of the sanction for a given offense is often determined by the offense history of the offender. We establish that this policy can be welfare-maximizing if individuals are imperfectly informed about the magnitude of the sanction. Imperfect information distorts individuals’ perception of the expected sanction of the first offense. Once detected, individuals learn about the sanction applicable to their act, making this argument less relevant for consecutive offenses.      

Technology Management in a Mature Firm: Structuration Theory and the Innovation Process

Most innovation studies focus on the activities or characteristics of individuals (agency) or on organizational attributes such as size and formalization (structure). In attempting to reconcile this agency-structure dichotomy we draw on structuration theory to examine the innovation process in detail. Structural properties (signification, domination and legitimation) are constantly reproduced from social interaction (communication, power and sanctions) by means of the modalities (interpretative schemes, facilities and norms) drawn on by knowledgeable, reflexive actors. This framework is utilized to examine the case of a mature manufacturing company in which managers and engineers were attempting to access new technologies. The data were acquired by means of a 6-year, on-going study which began in 1992 and which we suggest is essential for a thorough understanding of the innovation process.     

The Moderating Effect of Individuals' Perceptions of Ethical Work Climate on Ethical Judgments and Behavioral Intentions

Dimensions of the ethical work climate, as conceptualized by Victor and Cullen (1988), are potentially important influences on individual ethical decision-making in the organizational context. The present study examined the direct and indirect effects of individuals' perceptions of work climate on their ethical judgments and behavioral intentions regarding an ethical dilemma. A national sample of marketers was surveyed in a scenario-based research study. The results indicated that, although perceived climate dimensions did not have a direct effect on behavioral intentions, there were significant moderating effects. Climates perceived as emphasizing social responsibility and rules/codes moderated the individual ethical judgment-behavioral intentions relationship such that individuals were less likely to say that they would engage in a questionable selling practice even when they themselves did not believe the practice to be unethical. Respondents were somewhat more likely to form intentions consistent with their judgment that the questionable practice was morally acceptable when the ethical climate was characterized by an emphasis on team/friendship.     

Are Environmental Social Movements Socially Exclusive? An Historical Study from Thailand

Environmental social movements in developing countries are often portrayed as democratizing but may contain important social divisions. This paper presents a new methodology to analyze the social composition and underlying political messages of movements. Nearly 5 000 newspaper reports during 1968–2000 in Thailand are analyzed to indicate the participation of middle and lower classes, and their association with “green” (conservationist) and “red-green” (livelihoods-oriented) environmental values. Results show middle-class “green” activism has dominated forests activism, but lower-class “red-green” activism has grown for forests and pollution. Newspapers, however, portray all environmentalism as “democratization,” suggesting that the possible exclusiveness of some environmental norms is unacknowledged.     

Formative versus reflective measurement models: Two applications of formative measurement

This paper presents a framework that helps researchers to design and validate both formative and reflective measurement models. The framework draws from the existing literature and includes both theoretical and empirical considerations. Two important examples, one from international business and one from marketing, illustrate the use of the framework. Both examples concern constructs that are fundamental to theory-building in these disciplines, and constructs that most scholars measure reflectively. In contrast, applying the framework suggests that a formative measurement model may be more appropriate. These results reinforce the need for all researchers to justify, both theoretically and empirically, their choice of measurement model. Use of an incorrect measurement model undermines the content validity of constructs, misrepresents the structural relationships between them, and ultimately lowers the usefulness of management theories for business researchers and practitioners. The main contribution of this paper is to question the unthinking assumption of reflective measurement seen in much of the business literature.