Conditioning as disintegration

Conditional probability distributions seem to have a bad reputation when it comes to rigorous treatment of conditioning. Technical arguments are published as manipulations of Radon–Nikodym derivatives, although we all secretly perform heuristic calculations using elementary definitions of conditional probabilities. In print, measurability and averaging properties substitute for intuitive ideas about random variables behaving like constants given particular conditioning information.
One way to engage in rigorous, guilt-free manipulation of conditional distributions is to treat them as disintegrating measures—families of probability measures concentrating on the level sets of a conditioning statistic. In this paper we present a little theory and a range of examples—from EM algorithms and the Neyman factorization, through Bayes theory and marginalization paradoxes—to suggest that disintegrations have both intuitive appeal and the rigor needed for many problems in mathematical statistics.     

Sustainable tourism development in islands: a case study of Gran Canaria

While sustainable development is recognized as an essential requirement for achieving economic goals without degrading the environment, major problems arise in defining methods for formulating and implementing sustainable strategic actions at the macro‐level, including islands. Bearing in mind this limitation, this research paper will attempt to present a strategic planning methodology for drawing up strategic issues for tourism development from the point of view of sustainability, which is particularly appropriate to islands. The authors first review existing literature on sustainable development with a view to defining a conceptual approach to sustainability and identifying particular areas for sustainable tourism development in the island context. A methodology for formulating strategic issues for sustainable tourism development in Gran Canaria is then drawn up. Sociocultural aspects, the environment and the economy, with particular emphasis on tourism, are examined in order to identify major strategic issues for sustainable development in Gran Canaria. Copyright Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Possibilities for remote participation in trade unions: mobilising women activists

This paper argues that trade union activism within the new era of information and communication technologies (ICTs) offers the potential for unions to become more inclusive of under‐represented groups. Traditional conceptions of activism, participation and democracy within trade unions require physical presence at meetings at times and in spaces incompatible with caring responsibilities and atypical hours of work. This restricts the participation of women and other ‘atypical’ workers in trade unions. The paper explores the complexities of electronic forms of union activism in practice, indicating that while some positive features are experienced, there are also a range of obstacles, barriers and possible negative consequences.     

美国《复苏与再投资法案》关于铁路投资监管的规定对我国的启示

研究了美国《复苏与再投资法案》关于铁路投资监管的规定中,在铁路投资监管的主体、监管的形式和内容等方面值得借鉴之处,分析总结出中国经济刺激政策实施过程中对铁路投资监管的相应不足之处,结合我国的有关法律和实际情况,提出完善我国铁路投资监管的法律建议,即:在主体方面,应该进一步明确新增中央投资协调小组的职能、权力和运行机制,增加全国人大及其常委会作为铁路投资日常监管的主体,完善媒体和公众监督;在形式和内容方面,在事前监管和事中监管方面予以完善,并且增加新增中央投资协调小组的建议权。     

The effects of technology shocks on hours and output: a robustness analysis

We analyze the effects of neutral and investment‐specific technology shocks on hours and output. Long cycles in hours are removed in a variety of ways. Hours robustly fall in response to neutral shocks and robustly increase in response to investment‐specific shocks. The percentage of the variance of hours (output) explained by neutral shocks is small (large); the opposite is true for investment‐specific shocks. ‘News shocks’ are uncorrelated with the estimated technology shocks. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于跨境社交平台的产品推广模式研究

论文调查分析了近年来热度较高的跨境社交媒体平台以及相关使用数据,利用相关性分析方法分析了多个平台的数据,在此过程中发现了各平台间具有相当高的互惠性,并运用互惠比例和推广方式适配度模型完成了对跨境社交平台的运行模式以及推广方式的对比分析,最终研究得出跨境社交媒体平台的产品推广模式。     

论旅游地空间层次与管理

本文从空间层次的角度出发,将旅游地划分为感知、过渡、核心三个空间区域,并对三个区域下的管理进行简要阐述,目的在于使旅游地通过实施与之相符的管理措施,进而更好地发挥自身优势,实现自我的协调、持续发展。     

Robust influence diagnostics for generalized linear models with continuous responses

This article introduces two parametric robust diagnostic methods for detecting influential observations in the setting of generalized linear models with continuous responses. The legitimacy of the two proposed methods requires no knowledge of the true underlying distributions so long as their second moments exist. The performance of the two proposed influence diagnostic tools is investigated through limited simulation studies and the analyses of an illustration.     

Taking a Second Look in a Warped Crystal Ball: Explaining the Accuracy of Revised Forecasts

The fundamental questions we address are whether firms with a higher initial forecasting ability are able to accurately revise the exit forecasts of their investments; and how co‐investment partners and value‐adding commitment with their investment influence the main effect. We explore these questions with novel and unique data collected via mixed research methods on venture capital firms’ forecasts of 114 portfolio companies. We find that venture capital firms that are better at making initial forecasts are less effective in revising their forecasts. In addition, while the number of co‐investment partners positively moderate this relationship, venture capital firms’ value‐adding commitment moderates it negatively. Our findings contribute to the literature on organizational forecasting as well as inter‐organizational knowledge transfer and knowledge creation. They also provide novel insights into venture capital literature and practice.