Characteristics of Risk and Return in Risk Arbitrage

This paper analyzes 4,750 mergers from 1963 to 1998 to characterize the risk and return in risk arbitrage. Results indicate that risk arbitrage returns are positively correlated with market returns in severely depreciating markets but uncorrelated with market returns in flat and appreciating markets. This suggests that returns to risk arbitrage are similar to those obtained from selling uncovered index put options. Using a contingent claims analysis that controls for the nonlinear relationship with market returns, and after controlling for transaction costs, we find that risk arbitrage generates excess returns of four percent per year.     

CREATING VALUE WITH MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS

This report addresses two key questions for today's top executives: Do acquisitions create value for acquirers? And under what circumstances have acquisitions created the most value for acquiring shareholders?
The authors' analysis of over 1,500 completed deals by non-financial companies in the United States over the past 12 years shows that, at announcement, acquirers' shareholders suffer small losses, on average, in the short term around the initial deal announcement. Over longer intervals, such as one or two years following the announcement of the transaction, acquirers tend to slightly outperform industry peers.
The average or median market response hides tremendous variability in how the market has reacted to individual deals, however. This article provides evidence that the "right" M&A transaction can create substantial value for acquirers. One-quarter of the transactions lead to market-adjusted gains in excess of 5% for the acquirer and oneeighth of the transactions lead to gains in excess of 10% in the short term. However, some deals have also destroyed substantial shareholder value.
Financing structure is a key driver of the stock market reaction. Stock-financed transactions, on average, have a negative stock market reaction, while cash-financed transactions have benefited acquirers in both the short term as well as the long term.
Acquisitions of private companies or assets and units of public companies have consistently generated higher returns for acquirers than purchases of public companies.
Moreover, EPS dilution is not a major driver of how the stock market reacts to a deal. Although "accretive" deals perform slightly better than "dilutive" ones in the short and long run, the difference is small and not statistically significant. Over the long run, acquiring shareholders have benefited the most from deals within the same industry and that avoid targets with relatively optimistic earnings growth projections.     

Student Perceptions of the Insurance Profession

To attract students to the risk management and insurance profession, strategies need to be developed to overcome biases in their perceptions of the profession. This study attempts to determine some of those perceptions of students—specifically a group of business career high school students and a group of college students enrolled in an introduction to business course—about the personality traits of insurance professionals. A Personality Factor Questionnaire previously used extensively in other research was used to measure differences in student perceptions of personality profiles of different professions. We also measured how student characteristics such as age, sex, and expected college major influence student perceptions of these traits. The overall general conclusion was that perceptions of the profession are not as negative as many imagine, but do require some substantive work to improve, even among students seeking business careers.     

Heterogeneous Beliefs and Learning about the Expected Return in a Market for a Short-Lived Asset

This paper examines the properties of asset prices in an economy in which the true expected return on an asset is unknown and investors have heterogeneous assessments of the expected return. The principal innovation of the analysis is that the formation and evolution of investors' beliefs are modeled in a Bayesian framework. Among other things, this allows one to operationalize the notion of investor confidence. The dispersion of beliefs is, in contrast to the findings of many existing studies, not vacuous for asset prices and, in fact, can have virtually any qualitative effect on asset prices depending on the parameterization. The model has implications for the volatility of asset prices and shows that learning can give rise to some unconventional relationships, such as an inverse relationship between asset prices and risk.     

Wage inequality and firm performance: Professional basketball's natural experiment

The purpose of this inquiry is to utilize a natural experiment from professional basketball to examine how wage inequality impacts the productivity of the firm. The literature suggests that wage inequality may promote firm productivity if higher wages are necessary to limit the damage potential of certain workers. In contrast, other writers have trumpeted the productivity gains from worker cooperation and thus, argued that wage disparity lowers firm output. During the 1990s, the National Basketball Association experienced dramatic increases in the level of wage inequality. The empirical evidence reported here supports a third possibility. Specifically, wage inequality and firm productivity are not related.     

Personality and ad-evoked feelings: The case for extraversion and neuroticism

Feeling responses to advertisements have been identified as important advertising effects. Considerable intersubject variance has been noted across those ad-evoked feelings. Conceptual models have proposed individual differences, including personality, as antecedents of adevoked feelings. In the psychology literature,extraversion andneuroticism have been shown to predict positive and negative affect, respectively. The current research proposes and tests relationships between extraversion and neuroticism and specific, transient feeling responses to ads. Additionally, the single traitaffect intensity, an alternative construal of individual differences in affective predispositions, is measured and compared with extraversion and neuroticism. Extraversion and neuroticism appear to be preferable, theoretically grounded predictors of adevoked feelings and consequent consumer attitudes. These findings should advance advertising managers’ understandings of differences across consumers in fundamental patterns of feeling responses to advertising. He received his Ph.D. in marketing from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst in 1994. His research has been published inPsychological Reports andAdvances in Consumer Research.     

Simulating non‐normal distributions with specified L‐moments and L‐correlations

This paper derives a procedure for simulating continuous non‐normal distributions with specified L‐moments and L‐correlations in the context of power method polynomials of order three. It is demonstrated that the proposed procedure has computational advantages over the traditional product‐moment procedure in terms of solving for intermediate correlations. Simulation results also demonstrate that the proposed L‐moment‐based procedure is an attractive alternative to the traditional procedure when distributions with more severe departures from normality are considered. Specifically, estimates of L‐skew and L‐kurtosis are superior to the conventional estimates of skew and kurtosis in terms of both relative bias and relative standard error. Further, the L‐correlation also demonstrated to be less biased and more stable than the Pearson correlation. It is also shown how the proposed L‐moment‐based procedure can be extended to the larger class of power method distributions associated with polynomials of order five.     

Ecological and economic sustainability in fishery management: A multi-agent model for understanding competition and cooperation

Recent studies have shown that many marine ecosystems are experiencing an accelerating loss of population and biodiversity. It is apparent that there is a growing disparity between the available supply of fish and the desire of the growing world population to catch them. Although studies have begun to question the ecological sustainability of managed fishery systems, they often omit the corresponding effects on the economic sustainability of fishery industries. This is particularly important in rural coastal areas where the fishing industry is often a dominant employer. In this article, we analyze the interactions between economic and ecological dynamic systems using a multi-agent dynamic model of fishery management. Multiple agents (fishers) harvest multiple fish species and adapt the amount and allocation of their effort to their value functions, which are given as net profits of the fish harvest sold for a market price. This is largely unique in fishery models, since many econometric studies view fishers as represented by homogenous ‘average’ agents. We introduce and compare two different decision rules governing the behavior of fishers engaged in a competitive market. We demonstrate a situation where both behaviors lead to a decline of all fish stocks, as well as profits for most fishers. As an alternative, we introduce a cooperative approach in which fisheries jointly set sustainable limits for total harvest and effort that are then distributed to the fishers according to distribution rules. The simulation reveals that fish stocks and profits can stabilize at significantly higher levels in the cooperative case, leading to a continuous accumulation of capital for all fishers. This model demonstrates key aspects of overfishing conflicts that can be overcome through planned fishing quotas and cooperative market mechanisms. It also demonstrates a novel approach for simulating the dynamic behavior of heterogeneous fishers.     

Lifestyle segmentation and museum/gallery visiting behaviour

A number of variables have been used in the quest to understand better who visits museums and art galleries. This paper proposes the use of lifestyle segmentation in an attempt to understand how museum and art gallery visits fit in with other aspects of the visitors' life. Research to date has tended to focus on those who actually visit, but little has been done to enhance an understanding of non‐visitors. Lifestyle studies, undertaken across a representative sample of a population, offer the potential to understand not only those who visit, but also those who do not. Seven segments result from this lifestyle analysis of New Zealanders, with a significant relationship evident between lifestyle grouping and frequency of visits to museums and art galleries. As each of these lifestyle segments also demonstrates significantly different media characteristics, there are important implications for the placement and tone of promotional messages. Copyright © 2001 Henry Stewart Publications