Occupational Choice and Dynamic Incentives

We study an overlapping generations version of the principal-agent problem, where incentive contracts are determined in general equilibrium. All individuals are workers when young, but have a choice between becoming entrepreneurs or remaining workers when old. Imperfections in the credit market give rise to rents in entrepreneurial activities involving capital. These rents motivate poor young agents to work hard and save to overcome the borrowing constraints. With a labour market that is subject to moral hazard, the increased effort raises social welfare. Policies that reduce credit market imperfections, or redistribute income, may reduce welfare by dampening this effect.     

An Analysis of the Performance of Commercially Oriented Farms in Hungary

As a result of the economic restructuring and political reforms undertaken during the 1990s, Hungary has a varied set of farm types that encompass a wide array of different sizes, degrees of capital intensity and forms of ownership. This article explores the performance of Hungarian farms and concludes that, in contrast to other Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, the majority of commercially oriented farms are profitable. However, estimates are sensitive to the valuation of own land and labour inputs. From the application of factor and cluster analysis, eight clusters of farms are profiled and the most competitive group identified. While the most profitable cluster also has the highest mean farm size, farm consolidation should not be treated as a panacea for dealing with low agricultural returns in the region.     

AgriStability with Catastrophic Price Risk for Cow-Calf Producers

AgriStability is the primary Canadian agricultural risk management program. Recent experience with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the cattle sector demonstrated that output prices are susceptible to both “normal” risk and sudden, “catastrophic” declines. This paper evaluates the AgriStability program for cow-calf producers when there is potential for catastrophic price risk. A simulation model is developed. Under a base case scenario, when there is no catastrophic price risk, AgriStability behaves more like an income support program than a risk management tool. Risk-neutral producers see a 12.1% increase in certainty equivalent wealth compared to 12.5% for moderately risk-averse producers. Introducing catastrophic price risk increases risk-averse producers’ expected benefits to 21.8%. Actuarially fair program premiums and implied subsidies are also estimated. These results demonstrate that AgriStability is highly subsidized. Finally, benefits from supplementary catastrophic revenue insurance are calculated and discussed, along with several additional structural features of the program. Agri-stabilité constitue le principal programme canadien de gestion des risques en agriculture. L'encéphalopathie spongiforme bovine qui a frappé le secteur de l’élevage bovin a démontré que les prix des extrants sont exposés à des risques « normaux » et à des chutes soudaines et « catastrophiques ». Le présent article évalue le programme Agri-stabilité dans le cas des producteurs vache-veau (veaux d’embouche) lorsqu’un potentiel de risque de prix catastrophique existe. Nous avons élaboré un modèle de simulation. Dans le cadre d’un scénario de référence, lorsqu’il n’existe pas de risque de prix catastrophique, le programme Agri-stabilité ressemble davantage à un programme de soutien du revenu qu’à un outil de gestion des risques. Dans le cas des producteurs indifférents aux risques, l’équivalent certain de la richesse aléatoire est supérieur de 12,1 % comparativement à 12,5 % dans le cas des producteurs modérément risquophobes. L'introduction de risque de prix catastrophique augmente les bénéfices espérés des producteurs risquophobes de 21,8 %. Nous avons également estimé ce que représentent les indemnités actuariellement justes ainsi que les subventions implicites. Les résultats ont montré que le programme Agri-stabilité est très subventionné. Finalement, nous avons examiné et calculé les indemnités tirées d’une assurance-revenu supplémentaire en cas de risque catastrophique et nous avons aussi analysé plusieurs autres caractéristiques structurelles du programme.     

Recognition of Debt Restructuring and Resolution Measures under the European Union Regulatory Framework

Under the proposed Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), member states will be required to provide for bail‐in powers to restructure failing financial institutions. At this moment, the Dutch, French, UK and German legislator already provide public authorities with resolution powers. In order to be effective in debt restructuring of failing (non‐)financial institutions, the measures taken by the resolution authorities need to be enforceable (before all courts) and effective in the entire European Union. Given the fact that not all the firm's debt is issued in the home jurisdiction, the question of recognition is critically important. In regard of non‐financial firms, the Dutch, UK, French and German jurisdictions provide for court proceedings to impose a collective settlement reached by the debtor and the majority of its creditors binding on the opposing minority. Out‐of‐insolvency plans approved by the court are recognised under the Brussels I Regulation. If the EU Insolvency Regulation reform proposal is adopted, these court‐approved debt restructuring plans in insolvency situations will be subject to the recognition regime of this regulation. Credit institutions, insurance undertakings, investment undertakings holding funds or securities for third parties and collective investment undertakings are excluded from the scope of the Insolvency Regulation whereas the scope of application of the Reorganisation and Winding Up Directive is limited to credit institutions. The regime under the future BRRD and the Single Resolution Mechanism is limited to credit institutions. National (private international) law determines the recognition of resolution measures taken by the authorities of another member state. Copyright © 2014 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

Strategic supply chain management: Improving performance through a culture of competitiveness and knowledge development

For many firms, using their supply chains as competitive weapons has become a central element of the strategic management process in recent years. Drawing on the resource‐based view and theory from the organizational learning and information‐processing literatures, this study uses a sample of 201 firms to examine the influence of a culture of competitiveness and knowledge development on supply chain performance in varied market turbulence conditions. We found that synergies exist between a culture of competitiveness and knowledge development: their interaction has a positive association with performance. In addition, based on behavioral and contingency theories, we found that market turbulence moderates these relationships, having a positive influence on the knowledge development–performance link and a negative influence on the culture of competitiveness–performance link. Managers who are confident about the level of market turbulence they will face can use this sense to decide whether to emphasize developing either a culture of competitiveness or knowledge development in their supply chains. For those firms whose managers are unlikely to be able to predict the degree of turbulence they will face over time, a focus on both a culture of competitiveness and knowledge development is critical to ensuring success. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of the alliance on the partners: A look at cause–brand alliances

Partnering charitable causes with brands has become a common practice for many marketing programs; it is referred to strategically as cause‐related marketing. Although there is the perception that both partners benefit from the alliance, research has focused primarily on the benefits to the brand. Using Attitude Accessibility, Congruity, and Information Integration Theories, this study empirically tests a model to evaluate the impact of cause–brand alliances on subsequent attitudes toward both partners. The results of the study (n = 463) support the assumption that attitudes toward both the cause and the brand can be enhanced as a consequence of an alliance if perceptions of the alliance are favorable. Furthermore, the cause appears to benefit from the alliance to a greater extent than the brand. The study supports the notions that the fit between partners plays a pivotal role in consumer acceptance of the alliance as plausible and that familiarity with the cause moderates the effectiveness of the alliance. These results represent a necessary step in developing a theoretical model to explain the effects of a cause–brand alliance on both partners. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Deep learning volatility: a deep neural network perspective on pricing and calibration in (rough) volatility models

We present a neural network-based calibration method that performs the calibration task within a few milliseconds for the full implied volatility surface. The framework is consistently applicable throughout a range of volatility models—including second-generation stochastic volatility models and the rough volatility family—and a range of derivative contracts. Neural networks in this work are used in an off-line approximation of complex pricing functions, which are difficult to represent or time-consuming to evaluate by other means. The form in which information from available data is extracted and used influences network performance: The grid-based algorithm used for calibration is inspired by representing the implied volatility and option prices as a collection of pixels. We highlight how this perspective opens new horizons for quantitative modelling. The calibration bottleneck posed by a slow pricing of derivative contracts is lifted, and stochastic volatility models (classical and rough) can be handled in great generality as the framework also allows taking the forward variance curve as an input. We demonstrate the calibration performance both on simulated and historical data, on different derivative contracts and on a number of example models of increasing complexity, and also showcase some of the potentials of this approach towards model recognition. The algorithm and examples are provided in the Github repository GitHub: NN-StochVol-Calibrations.     

Agent-based modeling of systemic risk in the European banking sector

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - In this paper, we use an agent-based simulation combined with innovative calibration techniques to model the European banking system as accurately...     

Do Client Bankruptcies Preceded by Clean Audit Opinions Damage Auditor Reputation?*

There is a maintained assumption within the accounting literature that client bankruptcies preceded by clean audit opinions (Type II going concern opinion (GCO) errors) damage an auditor's reputation. Consistent with this view, the PCAOB proposes that stakeholders may use Type II GCO errors as indicators of low audit quality. This study examines audit committee and investor responses to Type II GCO errors. I find no evidence that audit offices with Type II GCOs are more likely to be dismissed, have lower subsequent audit fees, or have a lower likelihood of being selected for new audit engagements. These findings are consistent with audit committees not using Type II GCO errors as indicators of low auditor quality. Using event study analysis, I find evidence of modest incremental negative investor responses for clients of audit offices with Type II GCO errors. However, these negative investor responses are found only during the financial crisis period of 2008–2010 and are observed only within windows of 30 days or less. Given this limited evidence that stakeholders do respond to Type II GCO errors, I examine whether stakeholders should respond to Type II GCO errors. I find that audit office Type II GCO errors are positively associated with subsequent restatements, an established measure of low audit quality. Taking the results as a whole, I do not find that audit offices incur substantial reputational costs for Type II GCO errors. However, the negative investor response and the positive association with restatements provide some evidence that Type II GCO errors may serve as indicators of low audit quality.