The Influence of General Strikes against Government on Stock Market Behavior

Using a sample of 76 countries, this paper examines the impact of major strikes against government and its policies on stock market behavior. An occurrence of a general strike is detrimental to the value of equities, as documented by the ceteris paribus 6.11% fall in dollar-denominated stock market indices of the affected countries. This event is also accompanied by a statistically significant increase in risk, as measured by the standard deviation of returns and Value-at-Risk metrics. Taken together, these results imply that general strikes have serious ramifications for stock market investors.     

The international transmission of bank capital requirements: Evidence from the UK

We use data on UK banks? minimum capital requirements to study the impact of changes to bank-specific capital requirements on cross-border bank loan supply from 1999Q1 to 2006Q4. By examining a sample in which each recipient country has multiple relationships with UK-resident banks, we are able to control for demand effects. We find a negative and statistically significant effect of changes to banks? capital requirements on cross-border lending: a 100 basis point increase in the requirement is associated with a reduction in the growth rate of cross-border credit of 5.5 percentage points. We also find that banks tend to favor their most important country relationships, so that the negative cross-border credit supply response in “core” countries is significantly less than in others. Banks tend to cut back cross-border credit to other banks (including foreign affiliates) more than to firms and households, consistent with shorter maturity, wholesale lending which is easier to roll off and may be associated with weaker borrowing relationships.     

Mixed systems with minimal and maximal lifetime variances

We consider the mixed systems composed of a fixed number of components whose lifetimes are i.i.d. with a known distribution which has a positive and finite variance. We show that a certain of the k-out-of-n systems has the minimal lifetime variance, and the maximal one is attained by a mixture of series and parallel systems. The number of the k-out-of-n system, and the probability weights of the mixture depend on the first two moments of order statistics of the parent distribution of the component lifetimes. We also show methods of calculating extreme system lifetime variances under various restrictions on the system lifetime expectations, and vice versa.     

Eastern economies towards european union: Statistical measures of perspective evaluation

The main goal of presented taxonomy methods is to make the integration criteria of countries which are candidates for the European Union (EU) more objective. One of the basic issues in the process of their program construction is to perform suitable numbers and types of measures and coefficients. In this paper, similarity and distance measures between countries are proposed. Some of them are able to estimate the integration program realization, while others could signal possible current corrections to the program being realized. The methods described in this paper could also be useful for countries' program evaluations based on the experiences of the EU members, especially such countries whose processes of integration with the EU are characterized by similar processes and indices of economic development.     

Firms’ innovation performance and the role of the metropolitan location. Evidence from the European periphery

ABSTRACT

This paper assesses the role of metropolitan location in explaining firms’ innovation performance while accounting for other internal and external determinants of innovation. Using micro-level dataset and controlling for firm-specific, sector-specific and region-specific features, we identify a nuanced effect of location within metropolitan areas on the innovative performance of companies The results prove to vary for the different measures of innovation output of firms and in particular there is no metropolitan advantage detected for binary self-declared measures of innovations. The advantage is detected for the count-based quantity of innovation measures which is shown to critically depend on the higher performance of metropolitan-based firms in patenting and licencing. The interlinkages between location and firm-size matter and the results are asymmetric with particular benefits arising for micro-firms in their patenting and licencing.     

How the UK economy weathered the financial storm

Prior to the global financial crisis of 2008, the UK had the largest banking sector asset to GDP ratio among large countries, and had experienced rapid real property price increases as well as a persistent current account deficit in the preceding decade. These factors, together with its role as an international financial centre, made the UK economy particularly vulnerable to the onset of the global financial crisis. Although the initial drop in real GDP was steep, we provide evidence that the economy has weathered the financial storm better than many feared, and has fared no worse than its peer group of major economies. In this paper we assess the reasons underlying this outcome, including the possibility of exaggerated vulnerabilities, global economic recovery, the flexible supply side of the UK economy, as well as fiscal, financial and monetary policy interventions. Our analysis suggests that all of these factors played a role in cushioning the impact on the UK real economy, leading to a more benign outcome than most observers expected.     

Reconstruction of previous failure times and records

For the sequences of independent identically distributed random variables with continuous distributions, we provide the optimal upper bounds for the increments of order and record statistics under condition that the values of future order statistics and records are known. The bounds are expressed in terms of quantiles and absolute moments centered about the quantiles of the parent distribution. We also describe the distributions which approach the bounds with arbitrary desired accuracy.The second author was supported by the Polish State Committee for Scientific Research (KBN) under Grant 5 P03A 012 20Received November 2003