Incentives for input foreclosure

We analyze the incentives of a vertically integrated firm to foreclose downstream rivals in a model of upstream price competition between suppliers of only imperfectly substitutable inputs. Our main motivation is a critical assessment of common assertions that draw inferences from pre-merger observable variables to post-merger incentives to foreclose. In particular, we find that, contrary to some commonly expressed views, high margins on the downstream and low margins on the upstream market are not good predictors for the incentives of a newly integrated firm to foreclose rivals. Besides this contribution to policy, our model also extends existing results in the literature on vertical foreclosure through allowing for the interaction of product differentiation on the upstream and on the downstream market.     

Elasticity of substitution and the stagnation of Italian productivity

The aim of this paper is to investigate the roots of the stagnation in the Italian total factor productivity (TFP). The analysis focuses on the specific pattern of technical progress in determining the dynamics of the TFP. This analysis cannot be done with Cobb-Douglas technology, but requires the employment of a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function that allows distinguishing between the direction and the bias of technical progress. We employ a CES specification embodying both labor- and capital-augmenting technical change, with a σ less than 1. We obtain three main results. (1) There seems to have been a structural break around the mid-1990s in the direction and bias of technological change; (2) The first half of the sample features a labor-augmenting technical change and a capital bias; and (3) In the second part of the sample, both these characteristics seem to disappear, and the evolution of factor endowments assumes a key role. This fact may be seen as one of the potential causes of the stagnation in Italian productivity.     

Estimation of Common Factors under Cross‐Sectional and Temporal Aggregation Constraints

The paper estimates a large‐scale mixed‐frequency dynamic factor model for the euro area, using monthly series along with gross domestic product (GDP) and its main components, obtained from the quarterly national accounts (NA). The latter define broad measures of real economic activity (such as GDP and its decomposition by expenditure type and by branch of activity) that we are willing to include in the factor model, in order to improve its coverage of the economy and thus the representativeness of the factors. The main problem with their inclusion is not one of model consistency, but rather of data availability and timeliness, as the NA series are quarterly and are available with a large publication lag. Our model is a traditional dynamic factor model formulated at the monthly frequency in terms of the stationary representation of the variables, which however becomes nonlinear when the observational constraints are taken into account. These are of two kinds: nonlinear temporal aggregation constraints, due to the fact that the model is formulated in terms of the unobserved monthly logarithmic changes, but we observe only the sum of the monthly levels within a quarter, and nonlinear cross‐sectional constraints, since GDP and its main components are linked by the NA identities, but the series are expressed in chained volumes. The paper provides an exact treatment of the observational constraints and proposes iterative algorithms for estimating the parameters of the factor model and for signal extraction, thereby producing nowcasts of monthly GDP and its main components, as well as measures of their reliability.     

Universal Service and Entry: The Role of Uniform Pricing and Coverage Constraints

Universal service objectives are pervasive in telecommunications, and have gained new relevance after the introduction of competition in many markets. Despite their policy relevance, little work has been done allowing for a thorough discussion of instruments designed to achieve universal service objectives under competition. We intend to fill this gap, and disaggregate the problem into interacting forms of regulatory intervention such as uniform pricing and coverage constraints. It is shown that these are not competitively neutral and may have far-reaching strategic effects. Under uniform pricing, equilibrium coverage of both incumbent and entrant may be lower than without regulation. These effects depend on which measures are imposed at the same time, thus no single measure can be evaluated in isolation. We also point out that different groups of consumers are affected in different ways, making welfare comparisons difficult.     

A two-country NATREX model for the euro/dollar

This paper develops a NATREX (NATural Real EXchange rate) model for two large economies, the Eurozone and the United States, which are fully specified and allowed to interact. The theoretical framework, grounded on dynamic disequilibrium modelling approach in continuous time, provides the basis for empirical estimation. The model is estimated in its structural form as a simultaneous nonlinear differential equations system for the 1975–2003 period. The estimated parameters are then used to derive the simulated Euro/USD NATREX series in- and out-of-sample that offers the benchmark against which the misalignements of the actual real exchange rate are measured.     

Is Mobile Telephony a Natural Oligopoly?

This paper presents a model of competitive interaction among mobile telecommunications operators. Operators can offer services in twoseparate markets, urban and rural areas, and customers commute between them. Market coverage of an operator can then be interpreted as a parameter of vertical productdifferentiation. The main implication is that the industry has strong features of a``natural oligopoly': Only a limited number of operators with possibly different coverage cansurvive in equilibrium. It is also shown that competing operators do not have an incentiveto reach roaming agreements over non-overlapping areas. On the contrary, roamingcan be easily agreed upon by colluding operators.     

Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area

This paper proposes a dating algorithm based on an appropriately defined Markov chain that enforces alternation of peaks and troughs, and duration constraints concerning the phases and the full cycle. The algorithm, which implements Harding and Pagan's non‐parametric dating methodology, allows an assessment of the uncertainty of the estimated turning points caused by filtering and can be used to construct indices of business cycle diffusion, aiming at assessing how widespread are cyclical movements throughout the economy. Its adaptation to the notion of a deviation cycle and the imposition of depth constraints are also discussed. We illustrate the algorithm with reference to the issue of dating the euro‐area business cycle and analysing its characteristics, both from the classical and the growth cycle perspectives.     

Who's going to provide the funding for high tech start‐ups? A model for the analysis of determinants with a fuzzy approach

The aim of this paper is to understand which factors influence the financial structure of Italian young, high‐tech, innovative firms, and to attempt to formulate a predictive model to determine the ideal financial strategy for a given entrepreneurial project. Venture capital is the most relevant form of financing for high‐technology start‐ups in the United States and is frequently cited as crucial in the technological leadership of the US economy. However, banks are also moving toward establishing a role in capital provision, making innovative offers to meet the financial needs of start‐ups, especially in bank‐centric countries such as Italy. Is it possible to build a robust and ordered set of determinants of the financial strategy of new technology‐based firms? Is it possible to gather them in a model that allows a rigorous analysis? Is it possible to summarize the analysis in a synthetic value of orientation to one or other form of financing? Through a systematic review of the literature and comparison between investors, we have taken the first step toward answering these questions. This work develops a methodology to solve the problem and builds a provisional fuzzy‐set based tool to permit the rationalization of the relevant information and effectively support the reduction of qualitative evaluation of complex phenomena into simple and measurable dimensions. The structure of the model is hierarchical but simple. We consider, as the first level of main determinants (sub‐dimensions), the figure of the entrepreneur, the nature of the project, the financial scenario, and the market characteristics. For each of these, we provide deep insights about their relation with finance. We have verified the value of this approach in the context of ten business cases, by matching the financial strategies undertaken by entrepreneurs and the obtainable conclusions with the fuzzy tool. However, the definition of a robust, predictive model requires more consistent empirical validation, which we intend to develop from this work.     

Content and advertising in the media: Pay-tv versus free-to-air

We compare the advertising intensity and content of programming in a market with competing media platforms. With pay-tv, media platforms have two sources of revenues, advertising revenues and revenues from viewers. With free-to-air, media platforms receive all revenues from advertising. We show that if viewers strongly dislike advertising, the advertising intensity is greater under free-to-air television. We also show that free-to-air television tends to provide less differentiated content whereas pay-tv stations always maximally differentiate their content. In addition, we compare the welfare properties of the two different schemes.