The relative efficiency of commodity futures markets

The ability of futures markets to predict subsequent spot prices has been a controversial topic for a number of years. Empirical evidence to date is mixed; for any given market, some studies find evidence of efficiency, others of inefficiency. In part, these apparently conflicting findings reflect differences in the time periods analyzed and the methods chosen for testing. A limitation of existing tests is the classification of markets as either efficient or inefficient with no assessment of the degree to which efficiency is present. This article presents tests for unbiasedness and efficiency across a range of commodity and financial futures markets, using a cointegration methodology, and develops a measure of relative efficiency. In general, the findings suggest that spot and futures prices are cointegrated with a slope coefficient that is close to unity, so that the postulated long-run relationship is accepted. However, there is evidence that the long-run relationship does not hold in the short run; specifically, changes in the spot price are explained by lagged differences in spot and futures prices as well as by the basis. This suggests that market inefficiencies exist in the sense that past information can be used by agents to predict spot price movements. A measure of the relative degree of inefficiency (based on forecast error variances) is then used to compare the performance of different markets. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 413–432, 1999     

Last Call: decreasing drunk driving among 21-34-year-old bar patrons

Any effort to decrease the toll of drunk driving must include efforts directed at people who drink in bars, particularly young adults who use motor vehicles after drinking. We designed a multifaceted social marketing campaign, Last Call, to increase the use of designated drivers and safe rides homes among 21-34-year olds. There were three components to the intervention: (1) use of taxi stands to promote taxi use; (2) point-of-sale information to patrons at partner bars and (3) a mass media campaign to support the designated driver/safe ride home message. Among the heaviest drinkers, the programme significantly increased the use of designated drivers and increased the use of taxis by 63%.     

Another look at the relationship between socioeconomic factors and the black-white health benefit inequality

This paper illustrates the black-white disparity in health benefit coverage and the socioeconomic variables-unemployment, income, and education. The health benefit disparity is strongly related to the disparity in underlying socioeconomic variables. Moreover, the time-series examination reveals that the change in white workers' health insurance coverage is largely determined by its year-to-year persistence and the labor market tightness (or the business cycle), while that of black workers is largely determined by the change in their earnings with a slight persistence. The effect of the change in annual earnings seems to dominate the effect of the labor market condition (unemployment rate) and other variables. Finally, although marginally significant, an increase in the attainment of higher education (college) has a positive effect on the black-white health benefit disparity.     

Perceptions of Accountants’ Ethics: Evidence from Their Portrayal in Cinema

This article examines popular representations of accountants’ ethics by studying their depiction in cinema. As a medium that both reflects and shapes public opinion, films provide a useful resource for exploring the portrayal of the profession’s ethics. We employ a values theoretical framework to analyze 110 movie accountants on their basic ethical character, ethical behavior, and values. We use factor analysis to reduce 22 personal characteristics to five factors encompassing two terminal and three instrumental value sets, which we relate to ethical behavior. Findings indicate that in popular cinema, the ethical behavior of accountants is positively associated with intrinsic terminal values, but negatively related to competency (instrumental) values.     

Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and Their Effect on Growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa. We choose nine Sub‐Saharan African countries that are heavily dependent on a single agricultural commodity for a significant portion of their income. This paper quantifies the impact of agricultural commodity price shocks using a structural non‐linear dynamic model. The novel aspect of this study is that we determine whether the response of per capita GDP for the selected Sub‐Saharan African countries is different to unexpected increases in agricultural commodity prices as opposed to decreases in prices. We conclude that there is very little evidence that an unanticipated price increase (decrease) will lead to a significantly different response in per capita incomes.     

Human Resourcing in Practice: Managing Employment Issues in the University

Participant observation in two universities is used to throw light on processes of sensemaking engaged in by managers concerned with human resourcing issues. Analysis of managerial sensemaking in the case study organizations is carried out using concepts from earlier sociological theorizing about human resource or personnel management, treating these theoretical ideas as resources for use in the researchers' own sensemaking. It is shown that theoretical 'sense' can be made of the managerial or 'lay' sensemaking in the universities in terms of a need to handle various tensions which are inherent in all employment management work in industrial capitalist societies. And it is argued that there is clear continuity between what is currently occurring and has occurred in the past. This interpretation is shown to differ from that of an alternative approach in social science sensemaking, that which uses the notion of a new paradigm of 'HRM'.     

The possibilities and limits of telework in a bureaucratic environment: lessons from the public sector

By modifying the spatial and temporal framework of work, telework involves a reorganisation of the conduct of work that affects the employment relationship in different ways. In this paper, we focus on control issues. Based on the empirical study of two experiences led in the public sector, we illustrate the necessity to redefine the rules of control and to recast managerial practices and role.     

Report: Performance Management—The Key to Higher Standards in Schools?

The object of this article is to make a critical review of a series of official documents which have emanated from the Department for Education and Employment (DfEE), since the Labour Government came to office in 1997, on performance management in schools. This technique is seen by the Government as crucial in improving standards in schools. The key documents are shown in the list of references at the end of the article, and our review is divided into two parts: the first considers the defining features of performance management in schools and the role which the Government sees it playing in improving standards; the second part explores some key tensions in the performance management framework.