Optimal use of forecasts in economic policy decisions: An empirical test

A criterion for optimal use of forecasts of exogenous variables in a linear policy model with quadratic preferences is given, based on Johansen (1972). By calculating regressions of observed values with respect to raw forecast values used in the observation period, equations are established which can be used to transform raw forecasts into ‘certainty equivalents’. The method is applied to data from national budgeting and corresponding national accounts in Norway 1948–-1971. Especially the forecasts for the volume of exports, but also for import prices, could be considerably improved, for policy purposes in the context of the model of the type mentioned, by the transformation described. Some of the forecasts, when optimally transformed, should be permitted to fluctuate more strongly and thereby influence policy more strongly. Some tentative results for Sweden and the Netherlands are briefly mentioned and compared with the evidence for Norway.     

Credit Risk Versus Capital Requirements under Basel II: Are SME Loans and Retail Credit Really Different?

Under Basel II, retail and SME credit (R&SME) receive special treatment because of a supposedly smaller exposure to systemic risk. Most research on this issue has been based on parameterized credit risk models. We present new evidence by applying Carey's (Carey, Mark. “Credit Risk in Private Debt Portfolios.” Journal of Finance 53, no. 4 (1998), 1363–1387.) nonparametric Monte-Carlo resampling method to two banks' complete loan portfolios. By exploiting that a sub-sample of all borrowers has been assigned an internal rating by both banks, we can compare the credit loss distributions for the three credit types, and compute both economic and regulatory capital under Basel II. We also test if our conclusions are sensitive to the definitions of R&SME credit. Our findings show that R&SME portfolios are usually riskier than corporate credit. Special treatment under Basel II is thus not justified. JEL classification: C14, C15, G21, G28, G33.     

Examining world-wide purchasing power parity

We examine long-run PPP between Germany, Great Britain, Japan and the United States over the period 1930–1996 using multivariate cointegration techniques. Bilateral PPP between the four countries is examined in one system (as opposed to e.g. series of trivariate systems). In all of the statistical analysis, asymptotic tests are augmented by parametric bootstrap analogues, whereby we reduce, if not eliminate, the size distortion typically present in small-sample studies. The cointegration analysis provides support for the necessary conditions for PPP (i.e. cointegrating relations are found) but not for the sufficient conditions (i.e., the coefficients in the cointegrating relations are far from what PPP predicts). These results are at odds with results from other studies that also analyze long-horizon data sets.First version received: November 2000/Final version received: February 2003Comments by Stefan Norrbin, Lee Ohanian, Anders Vredin, seminar-participants at Sveriges Riksbank (the central bank of Sweden) and at the Econometric Society European Meeting in Santiago de Compostela are gratefully acknowledged.     

Up for Review: Unravelling the Link between Formal Evaluations and Performance‐Based Rewards

We study whether organizations that reward individual performance should give autonomy or should control how managers evaluate their subordinates. The normal way to establish control is to formalize the evaluations, so that managers cannot choose when and how to evaluate. We argue that organizations face a trade‐off because formalization helps reduce biases but also introduces rigidities. Using linked employer–employee data, we study the link between formal performance appraisals and firm financial performance.     

Identifying factors affecting consumers purchase incidence at retail trade shows

The purpose of this article is to examine variables influencing purchase incidences at retail trade shows. To this end, retailer and consumer related antecedent variables are proposed. The retailer related variables are represented by store environmental cues of sales staff services, store atmosphere and product assortment. The consumer related variables are represented by impulse buying tendency and perceived time pressure. Drawing on relevant literature, hypotheses are developed to link each of these variables to purchase incidence. Data were collected using questionnaire from shoppers (N=95) at a large retail trade show. The hypotheses were tested using partial least square path modeling. The findings indicate that consumers’ favorable evaluation of retailers’ sales staff services, store atmosphere and product assortment led to more purchase incidences. The findings about the consumer related variables indicate that impulse buying tendency led to more purchase incidences whereas perceived time pressure led to fewer purchase incidences. Drawing on these results, several implications for practice and research are suggested.     

R&D and productivity in Danish firms: some empirical evidence

The aim of the paper is to examine the relationship between R&D capital and productivity using microdata for Danish manufacturing firms. The influence of factors such as ownership, innovative characteristics and source of funding accounted for. The return to accumulated R&D capital is estimated to be in the neighbourhood of 9–12%, whereas the short-run effect of R&D is insignificant. Furthermore, the direct influence from foreign ownership, source of funding accounted for, innovative characteristics and ownership dispersion on productivity are analysed. However, none of the factors seem to have an impact on firm productivity. The same is the case for the indirect influence coming from interaction with accumulated R&D capital.     

Export Market Participation,Investments in R&D and Worker Training,and the Evolution of Firm Productivity

This paper uses micro panel data for firms in the Taiwanese electronics industry in 1986, 1991 and 1996 to investigate a firm's decision to invest in two sources of knowledge – participation in the export market and investments in R&D and/or worker training – and assess their effect on the firm's future productivity. The firm's decisions to export and invest in R&D and/or worker training are modelled with a bivariate probit model that recognises the interdependence of the decisions. The effect of these investments on the firm's future productivity trajectory is then modelled while controlling for the selection bias introduced by endo‐genous firm exit. The findings indicate a significant interaction effect between exporting and R&D investments and future productivity, after controlling for size, age and current productivity. Firms that undertake both investment activities have significantly higher future productivity than firms that do one or neither. In addition, these firms are more likely to continue investing in these activities leading to further productivity gains. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that export experience is an important source of productivity growth for Taiwanese firms and that firm investments in R&D and worker training facilitate their ability to benefit from their exposure to the export market.     

The Effects of Cultural Distance,Free Trade Agreements,and Protectionism on Perceived Export Barriers

ABSTRACT

This article addresses the questions as to whether cultural distance and a free trade agreement with a trade bloc, as well as protectionism, have an impact on perceived external export barriers. The evaluation of a mail survey of chief executive officers from 459 Norwegian companies shows that protectionism has a strong significant effect on the level of perceived external export barriers. The cultural distance to the export markets has only a small effect, while the free trade agreement with the European Union has no effect.     

High‐Performance Management Practices and Employee Outcomes in Denmark

High‐performance work practices are frequently considered to have positive effects on corporate performance, but what do they do for employees? After assessing the correlation between organizational innovation and firm performance, this article investigates whether high‐involvement work practices affect workers in terms of wages, wage inequality and workforce composition. The analysis is based on a survey directed at Danish firms matched with linked employer–employee data and also examines whether the relationship between high‐involvement work practices and employee outcomes is affected by the industrial relations context.     

Determinants of capital budgeting methods and hurdle rates in Nordic firms

We study the determinants for the choice of capital budgeting methods and the setting of hurdle rates (WACCs) in five Nordic countries. Combining survey data with a rich set of determinants, including ownership data, CFO characteristics, and financial data, we find that the use of the Net Present Value method and the sophistication of the capital budgeting are related to firm characteristics, variables proxying for real option features in investments and CFO characteristics (age and education). We also find support for significantly higher hurdle rates than motivated by economic theory. The premium is weakly positively related to managerial short‐term pressure and strongly negatively related to the sophistication level of the firm’s capital budgeting.