Response Format Effects in Questions about Norms: Implications for the Reliability and Validity of the Normative Approach

Several studies have demonstrated that altering the format (question wording or presentation format) can alter responses obtained from normative questions. This study extends that research with two experiments. In a study of McKenzie River boaters in Oregon ( n = 225), respondents received either a semiopen (fill in the blank) or closed (scale with anchored points) format of questions about acceptable waiting time at boat launches, percent of time spent in sight of other boaters, and number of groups met per day. In the second study, at Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge, 774 respondents received either the semiopen format or one of two closed formats (anchored with 30 or 60), asking for the acceptable number of motorboats and canoes. In both cases, norm prevalence was significantly higher in the closed format (46 to 78%) than in the semiopen format (27 to 60%), and the average increase from one format to the other was 23%. This suggests either that respondents are more likely to guess at a number when given a closed response frame or that the closed format provides important context that elicits valid responses. Examination of the mean values obtained under the different response formats suggest that both processes may be operating, but the latter is more likely. It appears that closed formats, like photographs, offer a cognitively easier and more meaningful task.     

Understanding the older shopper: A behavioural typology

With regard to the contemporary retail environment, to date, the older shopper has been afforded limited academic attention, which is somewhat surprising given the growth of this population in the UK. Consequently, this study presents an empirically derived typology of older grocery shoppers through the application of salient retail attributes and store image dimensions developed through extensive qualitative research techniques. The findings provide an important contribution towards better understanding differences in shopping behaviour amongst older consumers. The identification of six distinct shopper types, including three new distinct groups, contributes to theory, whilst a number of potential implications for retail managers are explored in light of the findings.     

A characterization of equilibria in the Groves–Ledyard mechanism

In this paper, we characterize all interior and boundary equilibria of the Groves–Ledyard mechanism for a large class of economies and determine their stability properties. We show that the mechanism admits three types of equilibria: a symmetric, efficient, stable interior equilibrium, a large set of asymmetric, efficient, unstable, interior equilibria, and a large set of asymmetric, inefficient, stable boundary equilibria. We further show that asymmetric equilibria fail to exist for large values of the punishment parameter or if the message space is bounded sufficiently. The boundary equilibria previously had not been located nor had the instability of the asymmetric equilibria been known. Interestingly, the stability of the symmetric equilibrium rests on two dynamics that individually produce instability.     

RBCs AND DSGEs: THE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY AND EVIDENCE

Abstract.  Real business cycle (RBC) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) methods have become essential components of the macroeconomist's toolkit. This literature review stresses recently developed techniques for computation and inference, providing a supplement to the Romer textbook, which stresses theoretical issues. Many computational aspects are illustrated with reference to the simple divisible labor RBC model. Code and US data to replicate the computations are provided on the internet, together with a number of appendices providing background details.     

Termination of the WGTA: An Examination of Factor Market Distortions, Input Subsidies anc Compensation

Input subsidies are common in North American agriculture and create production and trade distortions. As the theoretical discussion in this paper shows, the Crow transportation subsidy was no exception. The Crow benefit was eliminated in 1996 with the elimination of the Western Grain Transportation Act. Under the "pay the producer" approach, farmers in western Canada were compensated for the removal of the Crow subsidy, but the compensation was nowhere near that required to make grain and oilseed producers in western Canada at least as well off as before the Crow subsidy was removed. This policy change satisfied the compensation principle but not the Pareto principle. Reasons are given why this was the case, including very divergent views from various farm groups such as the National Farmers Union, the Alberta Cattle Commission, and the Alberta Barley Growers Association.
Les intrants du secteur agricole sont souvent subventionnés en Amérique du Nord, ce qui fausse la production et les échanges. Comme l'illustre la discussion dans cet article, il en a été ainsi pour le tarif du Pas-du-Nid-du-Corbeau, dans les transports. Cette subvention a été abolie en 1996 avec l'abrogation de Loi sur le transport du grain de l'Ouest. Les producteurs de céréales et d'oléagineux de l'Ouest canadien ont été indemnisés, mais la somme qui leur a été versée était largement insuffisante pour qu'ils restent aussi bien lotis qu'avant l'abolition de la subvention. La nouvelle politique a satisfait le principe de la compensation, mais pas celui de Pareto. On explique le pourquoi de cette situation, l'une des raisons étant les points de vue tràs divergents de diverses associations agricoles.     

Convergence in Productivity Across Industries: Some Results for New Zealand and Australia

New Zealand shares a wealth of common interests and experiences with Australia. This has tempted some to assume that these economies form an ‘Economic Club’, in which one would expect to identify common aggregate trends and growth experiences. In this paper we present results that test, and generally reject, convergence in labour productivity across Australia and New Zealand, using both aggregate and disaggregate, industry‐level data. We find that only two industries satisfy our definition of Conditional Convergence (Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing and Cultural and Recreational Services), and that the Mining and Wholesale Trade industries have particularly important roles to play in explaining the measured divergence. Cointegration‐based tests reveal more stochastic trends governing Australian productivity than in New Zealand. The evidence suggests, therefore, that the underlying growth processes of the two economies are fundamentally different, thereby questioning the relevance of aggregate comparisons between them. New evidence using industry‐level data does not, therefore, resolve the aggregate‐level ‘non‐convergence puzzle’ identified here, and elsewhere.     

An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: The importance of business opinion surveys

We examine the informational content of New Zealand data releases using a parametric dynamic factor model estimated with unbalanced real-time panels of quarterly data. The data are categorised into 21 different release blocks, allowing us to make 21 different factor model forecasts each quarter. We compare three of these factor model forecasts for real GDP growth, CPI inflation, non-tradable CPI inflation, and tradable CPI inflation with three different real-time forecasts made by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand each quarter. We find that, at some horizons, the factor model produces forecasts of similar accuracy to the Reserve Bank's forecasts. Analysing the marginal value of each of the data releases reveals the importance of the business opinion survey data—the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion and the National Bank's Business Outlook survey—in determining how factor model predictions, and the uncertainty around those predictions, evolve through each quarter.     

The market versus the analyst: Biases and predictive ability

Using the end of the quiet period (QPX) after an IPO as a venue for testing, we examine the long-run predictive ability of analysts and the market. Not only do we find that the analysts are reasonably good at predicting returns for at least a year, we also find that the market in general is at least as good—even after adjusting for the analysts’ recommendations. Separating the QPX market reaction into retail-dominated versus institutional-dominated – based on trade size – we find consistent evidence that only institutional-dominated reactions are positively related to longer-run return. When we examine 5-year survival prediction, we again find that only the institutional-dominated QPX reaction is positively related to survivability. There was no evidence that analysts were able to predict 5 years survival.