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91.
This paper reexamines the explanatory power of Taylor rule fundamentals for real exchange rate determination. We assume the agents know the time-varying parameters in central bank policy rules. The empirical results suggest that a monetary policy rule with regime switching is better able to explain the real Deutschemark/dollar exchange rate from 1976 to 1998 compared with a fixed-regime monetary policy rule. The findings show the importance of accounting for the expectation formation effect in changing policy rules as emphasized by the Lucas critique. Ignoring these effects can undermine the value of the rational expectations models. 相似文献
92.
Industry returns cannot be explained fully by well-known asset pricing models. This study reveals that common factors extracted from industry returns carry significant risk premiums that go beyond the explanatory power of size, book-to-market (BM) ratios, and momentum. In particular, this study shows that (1) the small-firm effect is significant only for firms whose market capitalization is below their industry average; (2) the BM effect is an intra-industry phenomenon; (3) a one-year momentum effect is significant only for firms whose BM ratio is smaller than the industry average and limited to non-January months; and (4) there is seasonality in all effects that cannot be explained by risk-based asset-pricing models. Neither rational nor behavioral theories alone can explain industry returns, and it is perhaps too hasty to attribute asset pricing anomalies to a single driving force. 相似文献
93.
We study the association between weather-related mood factors and stock index returns in an order-driven market, the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) of China. Our results indicate that asset returns are unaffected by changes in mood introduced by factors including the weather and the onset and recovery from SAD. In contrast, many of these variables are strongly correlated with a reduction in market turnover and liquidity, consistent with investor mood driving variations in market activity. Overall, we show that in an order-driven market, environmental impacts on sentiment are likely to affect trading activities, but not returns. 相似文献
94.
Numerous empirical studies, including Abraham and Hendershott (1996) , Muellbauer and Murphy (1997) , Leung (2004) , and Oikarinen (2009) , have identified a significant relationship between housing prices and macroeconomic factors. Using a linear regression on the comovement of macroeconomic factors and housing prices, this article employs an option‐pricing framework to price and hedge the fair premia of mortgage insurance (MI). Our model provides improved performance in terms of MI premium pricing, especially during periods that are characterized by high housing prices. Ignoring the impacts of macroeconomic factors on housing prices will lead to an underestimation of MI premia. 相似文献
95.
Recognizing that firms cannot avoid interacting with others, this research investigates how firms cope with technological change by managing resource interaction in a network setting. The paper is based on a longitudinal case study utilizing a focal net perspective to explore technological change in the optical media recording industry. The findings show that the development of AMI ability (the ability to acquire, mobilize and integrate resources) is a crucial mechanism for managing technological change successfully. Exercising AMI ability is a dynamic relationship management process and involves establishing, developing, ending, and reactivating business relationships, and illustrates the importance of network competence. 相似文献
96.
This paper reports a predictive investigation of first-time customer retention in an emerging service business—online reservation services. We work with an online platform that enables customers to make reservations for various types of restaurants. With numerous first-time users on the platform, the focal company is eager to effectively identify recurring customers. However, the business problem is challenging due to that each first-time customer has one and only one booking record hinders the use of well-established marketing models that demand multiple booking records for a customer. By analyzing more than 100,000 observations, we extract booking-related features that are useful in predicting first-time customer retention. Our feature extraction is potentially applicable to other service sectors (e.g., hotel, travel) with similar booking information fields (e.g., reservation timing, party size). We further conduct a comparative study in which surprisingly, the seemingly simplistic generalized additive model (GAM) for our test cases consistently outperforms computationally intensive ensemble learning methods, even the cutting-edge XGBoost. Our analysis indicates that there is no silver bullet for applied predictive modeling and GAM should definitely be included in the arsenal of business researchers. We conclude by discussing the implications of our study for online service providers and business data analytics. 相似文献
97.
The current study represents an attempt at experiential value, perceived quality and customer satisfaction influence on customer lifetime value. The sampling frame consisted of Star Cruises purchases in Taiwan. The authors have collected yield 268 questionnaires, by screening out 13 questionnaires, including those missing value or incomplete answer, and finally a usable sample of 255 questionnaires were utilized in this study. The results show that experiential value, perceived quality and customer satisfaction have positive effects to customer lifetime value. Especially, experiential value has the strongest direct effect. Therefore, if resources are limited, the manager should focus on shaping the experiential value to increase customer lifetime value. Implications for marketing theory and practitioners are discussed, and possible directions for future research are sketched. 相似文献
98.
全球油气上游产能与成本展望 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
剑桥能源预计,2020年全球原油产能为9500万桶/日?1亿桶/日,天然气产能为100万亿?125万亿立方英尺。未来中东仍保持全球石油供应增长的领先地位,全球产能增长将主要集中在少数几个国家;非常规资源将是非欧佩克国家油气产能增长的主要领域;大型油田将在未来全球产能增长中起非常重要的作用。世界各个地区的勘探开发成本和操作费用不尽相同,想要达到预期的投资回报,需要充分考虑油气项目类型、地区分布、项目开发阶段、地质技术条件、项目成本、财税政策和公司策略等多方面的因素。单纯从新开发油田项目的勘探开发成本和操作费用来说,俄罗斯为11美元/桶左右,中国为15美元/桶左右,委内瑞拉重油项目为24.79美元/桶。预计北美2018年每百万英热单位常规天然气的勘探开发成本和操作费用为12美元,煤层气为6美元,页岩气为6美元,致密气接近6美元,伴生气为4美元。 相似文献
99.
Meng-Lei Hu Jeou-Shyan Horng Chih-Ching Teng Sheng-Fang Chou 《Journal of Sustainable Tourism》2013,21(5):765-779
This study investigates the indicators of – and creates a model for – energy conservation and carbon reduction (ECCR) in restaurants, with the aim of promoting sustainable food tourism development in Taiwan. Based on research, food and drinks can account for up to 30% of total tourism expenditure. However, this topic receives little attention in terms of energy use and its effects on climate change. The current researchers adopt multi-dimensional, qualitative and quantitative research methods, including in-depth interviews and an analytic network process (ANP), to collect research data. In-depth interviews with 16 experts are conducted, whereby 35 ECCR criteria are obtained. The ANP results for the restaurant ECCR model reveal 30 ECCR criteria with relative weights in the following five dimensions: ECCR buildings (40.82%), waste (26.03%), sustainable food use (15.89%), energy consumption (10.05%) and water (7.21%). Management implications are discussed, emphasizing both operational changes and staff training and incentives. The new ANP results demonstrate an interdependent relationship among the criteria, which can enhance the accuracy of the results and provide a reference for the restaurant industry in making decisions toward achieving eco-friendly developments and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This study focuses predominantly on Asian cuisine; other cuisines require further research. 相似文献
100.
Chung‐Hui Chou 《Managerial and Decision Economics》2014,35(8):580-586
This paper proposes a game‐theoretic model to analyze owners' vertical integration choices if they delegate pricing decisions to their managers. We find that all three vertical structures are possible Nash equilibrium outcomes. If the products are weak substitutes, then the outcome is that both owners adopt vertical integration. When the products are close substitutes, both owners adopt vertical separation in equilibrium. When substitution between the products is medium, the coexistence of vertical integration and vertical separation is the equilibrium outcome, and the owner corresponding to vertical separation offers exactly a profit‐maximization contract to his or her manager under this situation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献