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221.
José-María Montero Gema Fernández-Avilés María-Carmen García 《Revue internationale de statistique》2010,78(3):330-347
Energy supply and demand, and as a consequence energy prices, are likely to represent one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. Commodity markets exhibit increased volatility when there is little or no underutilized supply capability to meet natural fluctuations in demand. In the case of energy markets, the large capital requirements and significant lead times associated with energy production and delivery make them more susceptible to the imbalances in supply capability and demand. Energy price volatility has destructive impact on market agents, and this impact is intensified when the prices exhibit asymmetric volatility. This article pursues two aspects of the issue. First we consider general aspects, especially the asymmetric pattern of volatility of daily returns of different types of energy products. Then, we analyze the behaviour of daily returns by using traditional models of volatility that include AGARCH, TGARCH, EGARCH, and ARSV strategies, as well as a threshold asymmetric autoregressive stochastic volatility (TA-ARSV) model that we propose. The energy products considered in this analysis are probably the most relevant energy products for the economic activity of the nations and the economic relations between countries: Crude Oil (OPEC reference basket and London Brent index), Gasoline, Natural Gas, Butane, and Propane. We use spot prices and the time reference ranges from 1986–1993 to 2009 depending on the product. 相似文献
222.
223.
David Matesanz Gómez Guadalupe Fugarolas Álvarez‐Ude Isis Mañalich Gálvez 《Economics of Transition》2011,19(2):287-304
This study examines the impact of trade on Cuban growth during different commercial policy regimes spanning the period from 1960 up to 2004, encompassing two essential economic structural transformations: the Cuban revolution and the fall of the Berlin Wall. For this purpose, the Granger causality is used by means of the modified Wald test for augmented‐level vector autoregressive model with integrated and cointegrated processes introduced by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Dolado and Lutekepohl (1996) . We show an import‐led growth hypothesis during the Soviet‐oriented pattern that is rejected after 1990, when exports are not only responsive to growth expansion but also to imports’ behaviour. 相似文献
224.
225.
Repeated Dichotomous Choice Formats for Elicitation of Willingness to Pay:
Simultaneous Estimation and Anchoring Effect 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Repeated dichotomous choice contingent valuation data are generated from responses to a succession of binary questions regarding
alternative prices for an environmental good. In this paper we propose a simultaneous equation model that allows for endogeneity
and error correlation across the responses at each stage of the bidding process. The model allows us to study the evolution
of anchoring effects after the second dichotomous choice question. Estimation involves the Bayesian techniques of Gibbs sampling
and data augmentation, and the application focuses on the preservation value of a natural area. The results for a data set
involving up to four successive dichotomous choice questions show that restricted multiple-bounded models are rejected by
the data with the general model. In addition, willingness to pay tends to stabilize after the second stage in the elicitation
process for the general unrestricted model. When taking anchoring effects into consideration, it is revealed that individuals’
responses in the latter stages are influenced by the sequence of bid prices offered in earlier questions. Nevertheless, they
do not have a significant effect on welfare estimates.
相似文献
226.
J. M. Muñoz-Pichardo J. L. Moreno-Rebollo A. Enguix-González A. Pascual-Acosta 《Metrika》2008,68(1):111-127
In this paper, from Frèchet’s metric, diagnostic tools are constructed for the detection of influential observations in Profile
Analysis with elliptically distributed random errors . This distributional hypothesis allows the application of the proposed
diagnostics to a wide variety of random experiences, not only for data from a multivariate normal distribution but also from
other symmetric distributions, commonly used in studies of several sciences. The diagnostics are based on Frèchet’s distance
between the distributions of the basic statistics in Profile Analysis, in the postulated model and in the perturbed model
obtained by deleting an observation from the sample data. This metric is highly useful since it enables the analysis of the
influence on the point estimation and the estimation error. Applications on two data sets are provided. 相似文献
227.
对河北省409户农户问卷调查分析显示,虽然大多数农民已经参合,但是农民对合作医疗的知晓度、合作医疗制度的报销比例、参合点的药价水平以及农民本身的健康状况等都会影响农民的参合意愿,进而影响合作医疗制度的可持续发展。 相似文献
228.
229.
Following the predominance of macroeconomic stabilisation policies and passive income support schemes in the first phase of
transition, active labour market policies (ALMPs) have now come to play a more important role in transition economies. This
paper looks at the Polish experience and provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness of ALMPs. We use the Polish Labour
Force Survey of August 1994 in combination with its Supplement on the Evaluation of Labour Market Policies together with data
on ALMP expenditure at the regional (voivodship) level. The macroeconometric analysis of the relationship between labour market
flows and ALMP expenditure shows no significant effects. The microeconometric analysis reveals that ALMPs are not particularly
well targeted at the problem groups in the labour market. That is, women and people with basic vocational education do not
receive enough attention. As to the effectiveness of ALMPs, the paper shows that former participants cannot expect to find
employment more easily than their peers who have been unemployed but have not been in a programme. Subjective evaluations
of former participants also suggest that ALMPs, but especially works programmes, have not improved their chances to find a
job.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
230.
Mireia Valverde Gerard Ryan María Tatiana Gorjup 《International Advances in Economic Research》2007,13(2):146-156
This paper examines jobs in the information society and the new economy, taking as its focus the call center industry. More
specifically, the study analyzes the degree of variability of the quality of call center jobs. In order to achieve this objective,
an index of job quality is generated, and an empirical analysis of the characteristics of jobs in call centers is carried
out. This allows us to determine the level and variability of quality of jobs in this sector and to establish whether the
reality of these jobs is as good as the forecasts for work in the new economy.
相似文献