Aufschwung verliert an Fahrt – Weltwirtschaftliches Klima wird rauer

The economic upturn in Germany is entering its sixth year but is losing momentum due to both demand and supply side factors. On the one hand, Germany’s key sales markets have weakened in line with the slowdown in world trade. On the other hand, a growing number of firms face production side bottlenecks, especially in terms of labour and sourcing intermediate goods. This coincides with problems in the automotive industry related to the introduction of the new World Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP), which has affected gross domestic product (GDP) growth due to the branch’s economic weight. These adjustment problems, however, should be overcome over the course of the winter. Fiscal stimuli will also take effect as of the beginning of 2019. After 1.7 % growth this year, GDP will increase at rates of 1.9 % in 2019 and 1.8 % in 2020.     

Determinants of Chinese direct investments in the European Union

This article analyses the determinants of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) activities in the European Union (EU). Evidence is based on panel Poisson models drawing on two investment monitors at the individual project level. Greenfield investments (GI) and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are distinguished. The findings indicate that market size and bilateral trade are the main factors for Chinese investment in the EU. In contrast, business-friendly institutions do not foster FDI. Probably, Chinese investors are risk averse, and prefer regions with less competitive markets. The striking difference between GIs and M&As is related to unit labour costs. Higher costs make the host country less attractive for the establishment of new firms, but do not affect the involvement in existing firms. The sectoral dispersion of Chinese FDI in the EU did not change much since the global financial crisis. Most relevant shifts have occurred in research and development (R&D), where low-income EU countries have become increasingly attractive.     

The debt brake of the German states: a faulty design?

The debt brake for German states, which demands that they are forbidden from taking up new net debt from 2020 onwards, has two major shortcomings. First, states do not have tax autonomy. In fiscal crises, they can only make adjustments to expenditure but not on the revenue side. Given the fact that most expenditure is—at least in the short term—predetermined by law, in such a crisis a balanced budget without new debt is hardly feasible. Second, the measure does not take into account that large investments, in particular in small regional units, can scarcely be financed by current expenditure. Thus, there is a high probability that at least some states will take up new net debt even after 2020 and, therefore, violate the rules of the debt brake.     

The effect of acute pain on risky and intertemporal choice

Pain is a highly salient and attention-demanding experience that motivates people to act. We investigated the effect of pain on decision making by delivering acute thermal pain to participants’ forearm while they made risky and intertemporal choices involving money. Participants (n = 107) were more risk seeking under pain than in a no-pain control condition when decisions involved gains but not when they involved equivalent losses. Pain also resulted in greater preference for immediate (smaller) over future (larger) monetary rewards. We interpret these results as a motivation to offset the aversive, pain-induced state, where monetary rewards become more appealing under pain than under no pain and when delivered sooner rather than later. Our findings add to the long-standing debate regarding the role of intuition and reflection in decision making.     

Learning in international new ventures: A systematic review

The present paper reports the findings of a systematic review on learning among International New Ventures (INVs). Learning has been studied fairly extensively by scholars in the field of organization theory. Learning is a prerequisite for internationalization, and the behavior of individuals working in INVs seems to indicate a strong predisposition or aptness to learning. In spite of this, research on learning among INVs has been limited and fragmented up to the present time. In seeking to advance the research niche of INV learning, we conducted a systematic review of articles published on learning within INVs. Our contributions are related to: (i) providing a review of current knowledge of learning among INVs; (ii) relating the findings of our review to the organizational learning theory proposed by March (1991); and (iii) a future research agenda.     

Towards sound environmental behaviour: Exploring household participation in waste management

The article reports a study of household participation in waste management. The empirical material stems from a long-term experiment with local composting carried out in a suburb of the city of Göteborg, Sweden. Fifty-two households of a population of 180 voluntarily participated in the field experiment where three makes of compostors were tested. The aim of the paper is to shed light on some critical factors that are of importance when introducing and evaluating new waste management systems that rely on active participation by households. The motives behind the initial decision to participate, as well as factors influencing continuation or discontinuation, are identified and analysed. Data were collected through three interviews carried out in the homes of participating families during the experimental period of one year. Amongst the results reported it can be seen that a general environmental concern was a common factor behind the decision to participate in the project. The positive attitude towards composting was strong throughout the experiment, although composting behaviour in the implementation phase declined in such a way that less material was composted due to lack of knowledge, technical misfits, and problems related to internal household dynamics. Another important result found was that the obstacles perceived by prospective participants prior to the commencement of the composting were not those that in fact proved to be decisive.

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In Richtung auf umweltverträgliches Verhalten: Die Untersuchung der Beteiligung von Haushalten an Abfalltrennung und Müllvermeidung

Zusammenfassung Das empirische Material der Studie, über die der Beitrag berichtet, stammt aus einer Langzeituntersuchung in einem Stadtteil von Göteborg in Schweden, bei der es um lokale Kompostierung von Müll ging. 52 Haushalte aus einer Population von 180 Haushalten nahmen freiwillig an einem Feldexperiment teil, bei dem drei verschiedene Fabrikate von Kompostieren verglichen wurden.Der Beitrag möchte einige kritische Faktoren beleuchten, die bei der Einführung und Evaluierung solcher Müllsysteme von Bedeutung sind, die die aktive Teilnahme der Haushalte voraussetzen. Analysiert werden die Motive zu einer solchen Teilnahme ebenso wie die Faktoren, die gegebenenfalls einen Abbruch der Teilnahme bewirken. Die Datenerhebung erfolgte durch drei Interviews, die in den Haushalten der teilnehmenden Familien während der Untersuchungsdauer von einem Jahr durchgeführt wurden.Zu den Ergebnissen gehört der Befund, daß ein allgemeines Umweltbewußtsein ein allgemeiner Faktor ist, der hinter der Entscheidung, am Projekt teilzunehmen, seht. Von Bedeutung ist ebenfalls eine positive Einstellung gegenüber dem Kompostieren, obwohl das Kompostierungsverhalten während der Untersuchungsphase aus mehreren Gründen nachließ, unter anderem wegen Wissensmängeln, wegen technischer Pannen oder interner Haushaltsprobleme. Ein anderes wesentliches Ergebnis war, daß die Hindernisse, die die prospektiven Teilnehmer vor dem Beginn der Kompostierung zu erkennen glaubten, nicht die waren, die sich als entscheidend herausstellten.

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Helena Åberg is doctoral candidate and Helena Shanahan is associate professor at the Department of Hand Craft and Home Economics at the University of Göteborg, Box 12204, S-402 42 Göteborg, Sweden. Sven Dahlman is associate professor at the Department of Consumer Technology at Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg. Roger Säjö is professor at the Department of Communication Studies, Linköping University, S. 581 85, Linköping, Sweden.The research reported here was financed by the Swedish Council for Building Research, the REFORSK Foundation, the Swedish Association of Housing Companies, and the National Board for Consumer Policies.     

On forecasting of innovations

The forecasting of basic technological innovations is focused. Clarification of the involved key concepts and an analytical framework are given. The forest industry serves as a background and illustration to the discussion. Considerable uncertainty prevails with respect to strategic investments in production in this industry. Industries, technological products, etc. have empirically been shown to pass similar phases of development over time. This life cycle starts with a basic innovation following on a previous invention. Due to competetion from more recent basic innovations the final phase is one of decline. Basic innovations are suggested to be exogenously determined and to cause structural change. The choice of forecasting strategy is suggested to be made dependent on the type of innovation, knowledge base, and life cycle position.     

Distribution theory and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis of saving

Using some general properties of ensembles of systems the size distribution of scarce resources in society is derived.Using Keynsian distribution theory and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis of saving the size distribution of income in society is determined.Specifically the distributive shares going to labor and capital are derived.It is shown that the results are consistent with empirical data.     

Sweden in the world: Some alternatives for a small state

This article summarises some studies of Sweden in the long-term international context, undertaken by the Swedish Secretariat for Future Studies. Four broad scenarios are presented; they contain international and domestic issues. They are then related to three images of Sweden that bring in solidarity with other countries, material wellbeing, and national and personal security. All these issues require public debate. The extent to which Sweden counts as a small state, and the implications of being one, are not clear-cut.