Modelling driver propensity for traffic accidents: a comparison of multiple regression analysis and fuzzy approach

Abstract

This research proposes an assessment and decision support model to use when a driver should be examined about their propensity for traffic accidents, based on an estimation of the driver’s psychological traits. The proposed model was tested on a sample of 305 drivers. Each participant completed four psychological tests: the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11), the Aggressive Driving Behaviour Questionnaire (ADBQ), the Manchester Driver Attitude Questionnaire (DAQ) and the Questionnaire for Self-assessment of Driving Ability. In addition, participants completed an extensive demographic and driving survey. Various fuzzy inference systems were tested and each was defined using the well-known Wang-Mendel method for rule-base definition based on empirical data. For this purpose, a programming code was designed and utilized. Based on the obtained results, it was determined which combination of the considered psychological tests provides the best prediction of a driver’s propensity for traffic accidents. The best of the considered fuzzy inference systems might be used as a decision support tool in various situations, such as in recruitment procedures for professional drivers. The validity of the proposed fuzzy approach was confirmed as its implementation provided better results than from statistics, in this case multiple regression analysis.     

Will AI ever sit at the C-suite table? The future of senior leadership

As the sophistication of artificial intelligence (AI) systems develop and AI becomes a key element of organizational strategy across a wide spectrum of industries, new demands are being placed on senior leaders. To understand the growing challenges leaders will face in the age of AI, we conducted interviews with 33 senior leaders in several countries across a wide range of industries. Our research highlights key capabilities and skills that leaders will require. Underlying these capabilities is a mindset oriented toward continuous learning and self-development, which will enable ongoing and rapid adaptation to change. Our findings identified the following key capabilities: digital know-how, data-driven focus, networking, ethics, and agility. To successfully navigate the coming era, senior leaders will need to focus on reskilling the workforce, recruiting and retaining highly skilled talent, building an intrapreneurial culture, and managing unprecedented changes in technologies and the nature of work.     

Returns of Education in the Czech Republic

Prepared for presentation at the Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance (IIPF) in Seville, Spain, 28–31 August 2000, for the session on the opportunity-equalising effects of fiscal systems.University education is nowadays provided as public goods in the Czech Republic. Due to economic pressure on public finance the trend of the 90s became the internalisation of costs associated with university education.The generally accepted hypothesis is that nowadays the returns from the costs of university education are achieved in a shorter time than before economic transition. Additionally, it is thought that the return on university education is differentiated by professions. We aim to test these hypotheses. That is why the cornerstone of our study is the deeper analysis of the differentiation of selected professions in the current state in comparison to the period before transition.After 1989, due to the economic transition and development of the market economy, wage differentiation accelerated in the Czech Republic. An important factor in differentiation seems to be the level of human capital, represented above all by university education. Education significantly increased the chance of finding a job, as another analysis has proven. However, these positive effects of education have been paid for by considerable monetary and non-monetary costs.The paper provides an economic analysis at the level of an individual and his point of return between costs and revenues from university education. To achieve an exact but still simple analysis we take into account only quantifiable monetary costs and revenues. The calculation of the point of return is done with the use of the construction of a cumulated whole-life income and its interpolation. The analysis uses data for the Czech Republic in 1988 and 1997.     

Determination of the most influential factors for number of patents prediction by adaptive neuro-fuzzy technique

Number of patents may be developed on the basis on different natural and science and technological factors. Number of patents prediction based on the different factors in many countries is analyzed in this investigation. These factors represent natural and science resources. The method of ANFIS (adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) was applied to the data in order to select the most influential factors for the number of patents prediction. Five inputs are considered: research and development (R&D) resources, natural resources, quality of academic institutions, quality of collaboration with the private sector and quality of education. As the ANFIS output, number of patents is considered. The ANFIS process for variable selection is also implemented in order to detect the predominant factors affecting the prediction of number of patents. Results show that the R&D is the most influential factor for the number of patents prediction.     

Analysis of the Nonlinear Option Pricing Model Under Variable Transaction Costs

In this paper we analyze a nonlinear Black–Scholes model for option pricing under variable transaction costs. The diffusion coefficient of the nonlinear parabolic equation for the price V is assumed to be a function of the underlying asset price and the Gamma of the option. We show that the generalizations of the classical Black–Scholes model can be analyzed by means of transformation of the fully nonlinear parabolic equation into a quasilinear parabolic equation for the second derivative of the option price. We show existence of a classical smooth solution and prove useful bounds on the option prices. Furthermore, we construct an effective numerical scheme for approximation of the solution. The solutions are obtained by means of the efficient numerical discretization scheme of the Gamma equation. Several computational examples are presented.     

A study on the competitive strategy of the universal postal service provider

We analysed how the universal postal service providers could employ their specificities to achieve an advantage over the growing competition. The basic input for the model is expert opinions. We interviewed 18 experts in five stages. As a multiple criteria decision support method, we used an analytic hierarchy process. Further, we proposed a geometric method for determining the business area where a company should focus its biggest attention to achieve the best result. By implementing the proposed model, a company should obtain two types of business directions, the first related to the proposed activities and the second to the business areas. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology, we tested and verified it in the case of the Serbian universal postal service provider which is a state-owned company called the Post of Serbia.     

Spatio-temporal determinants of the structural and productive transformation of regions in Central and East European countries

This paper investigates the determinants of the structural (between-sectoral) and productive (within-sectoral) transformation of 56 NUTS2 regions in Central and East European (CEE) countries over the 2008–2014 period. Over the analysed period, a transformation of the analysed regions has taken place towards the tertiary sector and high value-added activities. The results from a spatial panel Durbin analysis reveal the existence of product-space linkages and point to a productive transformation towards high technology-intensive activities as an important driver of industrial development. Equal access to digital infrastructure in urban and rural areas and transfer of skills, knowledge and resources through the inflow of foreign investment and imports of production inputs increase the contribution of manufacturing to regional employment. The effect of profit tax reductions on the share of manufacturing employment is about five times larger than the effect of government subsidies to production.     

Three ethical frames of reference: insights into Millennials' ethical judgements and intentions in the workplace

The paper investigates the ethical decisions of Millennials, who are not only part of an expanding cohort of the workforce, but also represent potential future managers with a growing influence on work practices and employment relationships. In the conceptual model, we propose that three ethical frames of reference, represented by perceived organisational ethics, perceived employee ethics and reflective moral attentiveness, antecede ethical judgements, which further influence the ethical intentions of Millennials. Using structural equation modelling, we test the model for three different business ethics scenarios: paying a consulting fee, dumping hazardous waste, and running an offensive advertising campaign. The findings confirm the link between ethical judgements and intentions across the board, while the influence of the ethical frames of reference varies among the scenarios. We propose that the differences in the predictive ability of the ethical frames of reference depend on the nature of the ethical issue, which holds important implications for today's managers in their attempts to encourage ethical behaviour of Millennial employees.     

Examining macroeconomic models through the lens of asset pricing

We develop new methods for representing the asset-pricing implications of stochastic general equilibrium models. We provide asset-pricing counterparts to impulse response functions and the resulting dynamic value decompositions (DVDs). These methods quantify the exposures of macroeconomic cash flows to shocks over alternative investment horizons and the corresponding prices or investors’ compensations. We extend the continuous-time methods developed in Hansen and Scheinkman (2012) and Borovi?ka et al. (2011) by constructing discrete-time, state-dependent, shock-exposure and shock-price elasticities as functions of the investment horizon. Our methods are applicable to economic models that are nonlinear, including models with stochastic volatility.