The Dynamics of Industry Concentration for U.S. Micro and Macro Brewers

In this update we document the changes in industry concentration of macro and micro brewers in the U.S. brewing industry since 1970. Technological change and the continued success of Anheuser–Busch forced the macro brewers into a war-of-attrition game and contributed to rising concentration in the macro sector of the industry. Homogenization of the beer produced by macro brewers, changes in local demand conditions, and a more favorable regulatory environment created profitable niches in many local markets for micro brewery beer, and entry into this sector occurred at a phenomenal rate from 1977 to 1998. Consistent with several models of industry dynamics, over-exuberance led to a shakeout as the number of micro breweries fell by over 16% from 1998 to 2002.     

MODELING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH A FOCUS ON AMENITIES

While the literature is clear that areas endowed with scenic beauty, lakes, forests, and wildlife among other natural and built amenities are experiencing robust economic growth, the theoretical foundations for this work are weak. In this study, we employ a Bayesian Modeling Average (BMA) approach to address the problem of model specification. Using data for US counties, we estimate a neoclassical growth model while looking at growth over the 1990s. We look at three separate ways of measuring amenities and recreational opportunities that build on those amenities. While the results suggest that higher amenity areas experience faster growth, still some level of value-added development may be required to realize that growth.     

Survey Estimates by Calibration on Complex Auxiliary Information

In the last decade, calibration estimation has developed into an important field of research in survey sampling. Calibration is now an important methodological instrument in the production of statistics. Several national statistical agencies have developed software designed to compute calibrated weights based on auxiliary information available in population registers and other sources. This paper reviews some recent progress and offers some new perspectives. Calibration estimation can be used to advantage in a range of different survey conditions. This paper examines several situations, including estimation for domains in one‐phase sampling, estimation for two‐phase sampling, and estimation for two‐stage sampling with integrated weighting. Typical of those situations is complex auxiliary information, a term that we use for information made up of several components. An example occurs when a two‐stage sample survey has information both for units and for clusters of units, or when estimation for domains relies on information from different parts of the population. Complex auxiliary information opens up more than one way of computing the final calibrated weights to be used in estimation. They may be computed in a single step or in two or more successive steps. Depending on the approach, the resulting estimates do differ to some degree. All significant parts of the total information should be reflected in the final weights. The effectiveness of the complex information is mirrored by the variance of the resulting calibration estimator. Its exact variance is not presentable in simple form. Close approximation is possible via the corresponding linearized statistic. We define and use automated linearization as a shortcut in finding the linearized statistic. Its variance is easy to state, to interpret and to estimate. The variance components are expressed in terms of residuals, similar to those of standard regression theory. Visual inspection of the residuals reveals how the different components of the complex auxiliary information interact and work together toward reducing the variance.     

Instrumental variable estimation of nonseparable models

There are many environments where knowledge of a structural relationship is required to answer questions of interest. Also, nonseparability of a structural disturbance is a key feature of many models. Here, we consider nonparametric identification and estimation of a model that is monotonic in a nonseparable scalar disturbance, which disturbance is independent of instruments. This model leads to conditional quantile restrictions. We give local identification conditions for the structural equations from those quantile restrictions. We find that a modified completeness condition is sufficient for local identification. We also consider estimation via a nonparametric minimum distance estimator. The estimator minimizes the sum of squares of predicted values from a nonparametric regression of the quantile residual on the instruments. We show consistency of this estimator.     

HOUSEHOLD RESPONSES TO PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES: COST AND QUALITY TRADEOFFS

The effectiveness of government investments in health care dependson the public's response to price and quality as well as onwhether these expenditures actually improve health outcomes.Consumers, even those in low-income households, are willingto pay fees for better health care if the fees translate intoimproved access and reliability. But when prices rise withouta concomitant improvement in services, malnutrition and childmortality rates increase. The availability of basic health carehas a relatively greater impact on households with low incomesor low education, or both, than does the provision of more specializedservices. This article describes the types of services for whichhouseholds indicate they are willing to pay increased fees.It also indicates the potential gains from improving these services,as well as the consequences of moving faster on cost recoverythan on providing improved or better-targeted services.      

Changes in the Distribution of Air Pollution Exposure in the Los Angeles Basin from 1990 to 1999

This research assesses changes in the patterns of ozone and particulate concentrations and the associations of these pollutants with socioeconomic factors from 1990 to 1999 in the South Coast Air Basin of California. The results are somewhat different in 1999 than in 1990 and suggest that demographic changes, in concert with changes in emissions and resulting air pollution patterns, determine the pattern of air pollution exposure and how exposure changes over time. (JEL)     

Non-core liabilities and interest rate pass-through: bank-level evidence from Indonesia

The policy importance of non-core liabilities (bank liabilities other than equity and retail deposits) has risen to prominence in recent years with a number of studies highlighting it as a useful indicator of financial procyclicality and vulnerability. In this paper, we look at non-core liabilities in relation to its role in the transmission of monetary policy, particularly by examining how the interest rate channel of monetary policy is affected by non-deposit liabilities. We analyse this issue in the context of an emerging economy experience of Indonesia, which in recent years, has seen an increased reliance of its banking sector on non-core funding. Our investigation employs available bank-level data on non-core liabilities and lending rates in Indonesia over the period October 2011 to July 2016. We find that including non-core liabilities in the estimation has an effect, relative to the baseline, of stronger overall and immediate pass-through, albeit with a more sluggish adjustment towards the correction of disequilibrium in the next period. The overall effect is that non-core liabilities make the duration longer for the monetary policy rate to transmit to bank lending rates in Indonesia.     

Allocating a 'Scarce' Resource, Water in the West: More Market-like Incentives Can Extend Supply, But Constraints Demand Equitable Policies

A bstract . The issue of water marketing in the western United States has generated much discussion in recent years. This is due, in part, to the commonly accepted notion that western water has become "dangerously" scarce. The nature and extent of this scarcity are examined in detail. While water may not be scarce in the West, cheap water certainly is. The optimality of water marketing is also dependent upon various ceteris paribus assumptions. These assumptions are questioned due to certain bydrologic uncertainties and external costs associated with the use and development of western water. Considerable benefit, particularly in expanding residential supply , can be achieved from more market-like incentives to conserve in use. But the resource's social value about rights argues for policies based on equitable sharing.     

Diversification of geographic risk in retail bank networks: evidence from bank expansion after the Riegle‐Neal Act

The 1994 Riegle‐Neal Act (RN) removed restrictions on branch‐network expansion for banks in the United States. An important motivation was to facilitate geographic risk diversification (GRD). Using a factor model to measure banks' geographic risk, we show that RN expanded GRD possibilities in small states, but only some large banks took advantage. Using our measure of geographic risk and an empirical model of branch‐network choice, we identify preferences toward GRD separately from other factors possibly limiting network expansion. Counterfactuals show that risk negatively affected bank value but was counterbalanced by economies of density/scale, reallocation/merging costs, and local market power concerns.