Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: a suggestion with an application to Austrian data

The information contained in a large panel dataset is used to date historical turning points and to forecast future ones. We estimate groups of series with similar time series dynamics and link the groups with a dynamic structure. The dynamic structure identifies a group of leading and a group of coincident series. Robust results across data vintages are obtained when series‐specific information is incorporated in the design of the prior group probability distribution. The forecast evaluation confirms that the Markov switching panel with dynamic structure performs well when compared to other specifications. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Policy Reform in the European Union Dairy Sector: Effects on Markets and Welfare

This paper analyzes the impacts of policy reforms in the EU dairy sector. It is shown that the imple-mentation of GATT agreements leads to a 4% decrease in the milk price. Prices of SMP and WMP decrease more than butter and cheese prices. EU welfare increases marginally, but distributive effects are large. The increase in quotas decided by the Berlin Agreement will cause a dramatic cut in the milk price (?10% to ?15% depending on how EU demand will increase in the future). Moreover, because of the constraints on subsidized exports, the implicit price of protein will decrease much more than the price of fat. Finally, if demand expands sufficiently, then compensatory payments (including national envelopes) will cover about 90% of the loss in producer surplus due to the milk price cut. We also inves-tigate the impact of a two-tiered quota system and show that its impacts are similar to those generated by the implementation of GATT agreements. On étudie les effets de différents scénarios de réforme de la politique laitiére européenne. La mise en oeuvre des accords du GATT implique une réduction du prix du lait de 4%. De plus, les baisses de prix des produits transformés sont plus importantes pour les poudres de lait que pour le beurre ou le fro-mage. L'impact des accords sur le bien-ětre est positif mais faible. Par contre les effets redistributifs sont importants. L'augmentation des quotas décidée lors de l'accord de Berlin entra?nera une baisse importante du prix du lait européen, de l'ordre de 10 %à 15 % selon l'évolution de la consommation intérieure. En raison des contraintes d'exportations qui portent principalement sur les produits pro-téiques, le prix implicite de la protéine de lait diminue beaucoup plus que le prix implicite de la matiére grasse laitiére. Par ailleurs, on montre que si la demande européenne s'accro?t suffisamment, les paiements compensatoires prévus couvriront environ 90 % des pertes de revenus des producteurs liées à la baisse du prix du lait. Enfin, on montre que les effets d'un scénario de double prix double quota sont proches de ceux provoqués par la mise en application des accords du GATT.     

Cost comparisons of reduced-impact and conventional logging in the tropics

Comparisons of the costs of reduced-impact (RIL) and conventional logging (CL) based on new data from Gabon and 10 previously published studies revealed that some tropical forest operators should adopt RIL out of financial self-interest but many may require other motivation. Among the comparisons in which costs were expressed per cubic meter of harvested timber, three reported lower costs for RIL, one showed identical costs with CL, and six reported RIL to be more costly.     

Transparenz als Erfolgsfaktor der Vertriebssteuerung: das Beispiel Evonik Health &; Nutrition

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Worst-case optimal redistribution of VCG payments in multi-unit auctions

For allocation problems with one or more items, the well-known Vickrey–Clarke–Groves (VCG) mechanism (aka Clarke mechanism, Generalized Vickrey Auction) is efficient, strategy-proof, individually rational, and does not incur a deficit. However, it is not (strongly) budget balanced: generally, the agents' payments will sum to more than 0. We study mechanisms that redistribute some of the VCG payments back to the agents, while maintaining the desirable properties of the VCG mechanism. Our objective is to come as close to budget balance as possible in the worst case. For auctions with multiple indistinguishable units in which marginal values are nonincreasing, we derive a mechanism that is optimal in this sense. We also derive an optimal mechanism for the case where we drop the non-deficit requirement. Finally, we show that if marginal values are not required to be nonincreasing, then the original VCG mechanism is worst-case optimal.     

The relation between forest clearance and household income among native Amazonians: Results from the Tsimane' Amazonian panel study, Bolivia

The Amazon rain forest harbors some of the world's richest biological diversity. During the twentieth century, two types of actors cleared that forest: native Amazonians and outside encroachers. Of the two actors, we know more about what drives outside encroachers to clear forest than about what drives native Amazonians to clear forest. The past research focus has served well because during the twentieth century outside encroachers cleared most of the Amazonian forest. But the past research focus needs to be expanded because native Amazonians are claiming de jure stewardship of the forests they inhabit, and with tighter jurisdiction over those forests will likely come changes in the amount of forest native Amazonians clear. Prior research in rural areas of low-income nations suggests that household income affects household forest clearance. To estimate the effects of household real income on the total forest area (old-growth + fallow) cleared by households we use a panel composed of five annual household surveys (2002-2006, inclusive) from 324 households of a native Amazonian society in Bolivia (Tsimane'). We control for household and village fixed effects and use an instrumental variable for household income. We find positive and significant household real income elasticities of forest clearance of 0.35 and 0.47 and an increase in forest clearance of 5.3%/year. The main finding stood up well to sensitivity analysis. These estimates suggest that in the near future, the forest in the Tsimane' territory will likely face increasing pressure from the Tsimane' themselves, not just from outside encroachers.     

How to Become Central in an Informal Social Network: An Investigation of the Antecedents to Network Centrality in an Environmental SCM Initiative

Environmental supply chain management (SCM) initiatives often evolve as informal, grassroots efforts that are driven by policy entrepreneurs at lower management levels in an organization. These individuals usually are not in positions of power or authority to convince others to support the initiative. They thus rely on central positions in informal networks to gain access to and influence over other employees to be better able to sell these initiatives. This study examines how individuals arrive at positions of centrality within the networks surrounding environmental SCM initiatives. Linking social network theory and social capital theory with findings from the organizational behavior and environmental arena, the study investigates how an individual's proactive personality and commitment profile—affective, normative, and continuance commitment—might affect network centrality through the mediating role of championing behavior. Investigating the implementation of an environmental SCM initiative at a multinational enterprise, the authors identified a 90‐actor social network surrounding the initiative. The results provide evidence that championing behavior fully mediates the relationship between commitment and network centrality and to a lesser extent between proactive personality and network centrality. These findings suggest that championing behavior can enable an actor to become more central in social networks. Further, the results indicate that in an environmental SCM context, engendering the right type of commitment is a much more important driver of championing behavior than the proactive personalities of individual actors. This finding suggests that even employees who do not have proactive personalities can champion environmental initiatives and become central within the informal networks that surround these initiatives, if they strongly desire to support the initiative and believe that the initiative will lead to positive change.