Investment and saving in Angola and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle

This article analyses the relationship between investment and savings for Angola using the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle, with monthly data from January 2000 to December 2013. Integer and fractional integration and cointegration techniques are employed to investigate the relationship between investment and savings. Several regression specifications are employed, concluding that the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle is not validated for the Angolan economy. Policy implications are derived.     

Patents,R&;D and lag effects: evidence from flexible methods for count panel data on manufacturing firms

This paper investigates the relationship between patents and research and development expenditures using new longitudinal patent data at the firm level for the U.S. manufacturing sector from 1982 to 1992. The paper also develops a new class of count panel data models based on series expansion of the distribution of individual effects. Estimation results from various distributed lag and dynamic multiplicative panel count data models show that the contemporaneous relationship between patenting and R&D expenditures continues to be strong, accounting for over 60% of the total R&D elasticity. The lag effects are higher than have previously been found for the 1970s data. We would like to thank Chris Bollinger, Bronwyn Hall and Paula Stephan for useful comments on the previous version of the paper. Earlier versions were presented at the 11th International Conference on Panel Data, Texas A&M University, the Midwest Econometrics Group Meeting, and the Annual Conference of the Southern Economic Association.     

Counterfactual analysis of bank mergers

We introduce a counterfactual analysis of banks mergers, combining the pre-merger equilibrium setting with post-merger environmental characteristics, while accounting for endogenously propagated changes in market structure. Using this procedure we are able to estimate the effects on loan flows and interest rates that would have been observed if the pre-merger equilibrium was not altered. Results are obtained for firms, households, and banks inside and outside the merging circles separately. We find that mergers increased firms’ access to credit, but had an opposite effect on households and led to a widespread decrease in interest rates.     

Country Differences in Material Deprivation in Europe

This paper assesses to what extent differences in the characteristics of individuals (micro‐level perspective) and country‐specific factors (macro‐level perspective) can explain country differences with respect to material deprivation levels. Thus, our work aims to simultaneously consider the macro dimension and the predominantly individually‐oriented study field of material deprivation using multilevel techniques. We make use of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions. Our results show that country‐specific factors seem to be much more relevant than individual effects in explaining country differences in material deprivation. We estimate that the introduction of country‐specific factors reduces the proportion of total variance due to between‐country differences in deprivation by 72.7 percent, while individual‐level variables reduce this proportion by only 9.4 percent. We also show, through interaction variables, that the effect of sociodemographic characteristics can be shaped by institutional and structural factors, especially by the level of GDP.     

Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES

We report here spatially explicit scenario interpretations for population and economic activity (GDP) for the time period 1990 to 2100 based on three scenarios (A2, B1, and B2) from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). At the highest degree of spatial detail, the scenario indicators are calculated at a 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution. All three scenarios follow the qualitative scenario characteristics, as outlined in the original SRES scenarios. Two scenarios (B1 and B2) also follow (with minor adjustments due to scenario improvements) the original SRES quantifications at the level of 4 and 11 world regions respectively. The quantification of the original SRES A2 scenario has been revised to reflect recent changing perceptions on the demographic outlook of world population growth. In this revised “high population growth” scenario, A2r world population reaches some 12 billion by 2100 (as opposed to some 15 billion in the original SRES A2 scenario) and is characterized by a “delayed fertility transition” that is also mirrored in a delayed (economic) development catch-up, resulting in an initially stagnating and subsequently only very slow reduction in income disparities. The spatially explicit scenario interpretation proceeds via two steps. Through a combination of decomposition and optimization methods, world regional scenario results are first disaggregated to the level of 185 countries. In a subsequent second step, national results are further disaggregated to a grid cell level, taking urbanization and regional (rural–urban) income disparities explicitly into account. A distinguishing feature of the spatially explicit scenario results reported here is that both methodologies, as well as numerical assumptions underlying the “downscaling” exercise, are scenario-dependent, leading to distinctly different spatial patterns of population and economic activities across the three scenarios examined.     

The efficiency of the Scandinavian banking sector – a wavelet quantile regression analysis

In this article, the Scandinavian housing financing market is analysed in order to determine whether the interest rate price-discovery processes of Denmark, Norway and Sweden are efficient. Based on wavelet quantile regression analysis, we find systematic positive asymmetric price transmission (APT) inefficiencies. We conclude that there is a very high propensity for mortgage lenders to directly increase its customers’ mortgage interest rates subsequently to an increase in its borrowing costs. However, after a corresponding borrowing cost decrease, the same mortgage lenders are very slow to decrease its customers’ mortgage rates. These positive coefficients for so-called APT effects are found in all Scandinavian countries, even if the coefficients for Norway were not statistically significant. Wavelet quantile regression analysis, with a focus on the relevant higher percentiles, is easily motivated since the mortgage rates are adjusted very infrequently. Moreover, wavelet decomposition allows a robust analysis at different time frequency scales, while simultaneously controlling for nonstationary trends, autocorrelation and structural breaks. Except for the still positive but yet insignificant and inconclusive coefficients for Norway, the result is very clear-cut. Regardless of which wavelet scaling decomposition or quantile coefficient that is studied – positive APT effects are clearly identified and confirmed on the Scandinavian mortgage market.     

SCREENING FOR A CHRONIC DISEASE: A MULTIPLE STAGE DURATION MODEL WITH PARTIAL OBSERVABILITY

We estimate a dynamic multistage duration model to investigate how early detection of diabetes can delay the onset of lower extremity complications and death. We allow for partial observability of the disease stage, unmeasured heterogeneity, and endogenous timing of diabetes screening. Timely diagnosis appears important. We evaluate the effectiveness of two potential policies to reduce the monetary costs of frequent screening in terms of lost longevity. Compared to the status quo, the more restrictive policy yields an implicit value for an additional year of life of about $50,000, whereas the less restrictive policy implies a value of about $120,000.     

Collaboration, peer review and open source software

Open source software development may be superior to proprietary development because the open source organizational form naturally minimizes transactions costs associated with privately distributed information. This manifests itself in the ability of open source communities to encourage critical peer review and the sharing of ideas. When these activities are important, the open source organizational form may do better than a proprietary organizational form. My results suggest why open source is particularly powerful when maintainability of software is critical, and also suggest that the founder of a software project may be more likely to choose open source if there is an existing dominant proprietary software project.     

Time,congestion, and public goods

This paper considers intermediate and final public goods as stocks from which consumers obtain a flow of services by expending scarce time. The services so obtained depend on the time other individuals spend utilizing these same goods. Optimality conditions are derived for both stock levels and flow usage where tolls are required to cover costs. The elasticities in the resulting formulae are endogenous in the sense that only certain values are permissible. In the intermediate good case, at the optimum, the public good will always be locally optimally supplied and locally underutilized to a degree which depends on the congestion parameter.     

Measurement of patient-reported outcomes. 1: The search for the Holy Grail

Abstract

Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are used to collect information directly from patients. They may cover several different types of outcomes ranging from symptoms, functioning, utility, satisfaction, through to quality-of-life (QoL). They generally consist of self-completed questionnaires that can be administered by means of hard copies or in a range of electronic formats. PROMs vary considerably in terms of the constructs they assess, the care with which they are developed, and their scientific quality. However, none of the PROMs available approach the quality of measurement achieved by measures/instruments used in physics. PROs are examples of latent variables. These are not directly observable, but can be inferred from, for example, responses to a questionnaire. The only measure of a latent variable that approaches the quality of measurement achieved by the physical sciences is the Lexile Framework for Reading. This framework is based on a construct theory that grew out of an analysis of several available reading measures. A specification equation was generated that was able to link the construct theory to scores obtained with the Lexile measure. A fundamental requirement of this quality of measurement is that the data collected with the model fit Rasch Measurement Theory (RMT). It is argued that PROM developers should aspire to match this level of measurement sophistication if their instruments are to provide valid insights into the impacts of disease and its treatment.