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排序方式: 共有178条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
31.
Marius D. Pascariu Adam Lenart Vladimir Canudas-Romo 《Scandinavian actuarial journal》2013,2013(8):661-685
ABSTRACTThe age-at-death distribution is a representation of the mortality experience in a population. Although it proves to be highly informative, it is often neglected when it comes to the practice of past or future mortality assessment. We propose an innovative method to mortality modeling and forecasting by making use of the location and shape measures of a density function, i.e. statistical moments. Time series methods for extrapolating a limited number of moments are used and then the reconstruction of the future age-at-death distribution is performed. The predictive power of the method seems to be net superior when compared to the results obtained using classical approaches to extrapolating age-specific-death rates, and the accuracy of the point forecast (MASE) is improved on average by 33% respective to the state-of-the-art, the Lee–Carter model. The method is tested using data from the Human Mortality Database and implemented in a publicly available R package. 相似文献
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34.
Farida Enikeeva Vladimir Kalashnikov Deimante Rusaityte 《Scandinavian actuarial journal》2013,2013(1):18-39
A method of continuity analysis of ruin probabilities with respect to variation of parameters governing risk processes is proposed. It is based on the representation of the ruin probability as the stationary probability of a reversed process. We apply Kartashov's technique designed for continuity analysis of stationary distributions of general Markov chains in order to obtain desired continuity estimates. The method is illustrated by the Sparre Andersen and Markov modulated risk models. 相似文献
35.
In this paper, we demonstrate that many stochastic volatility models have the undesirable property that moments of order higher
than 1 can become infinite in finite time. As arbitrage-free price computation for a number of important fixed income products
involves forming expectations of functions with super-linear growth, such lack of moment stability is of significant practical
importance. For instance, we demonstrate that reasonably parametrized models can produce infinite prices for Eurodollar futures
and for swaps with floating legs paying either Libor-in-arrears or a constant maturity swap rate. We systematically examine
the moment explosion property across a spectrum of stochastic volatility models. We show that lognormal and displaced-diffusion
type models are easily prone to moment explosions, whereas CEV-type models (including the so-called SABR model) are not. Related
properties such as the failure of the martingale property are also considered.
Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at and is accessible for authorized users. 相似文献
Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at and is accessible for authorized users. 相似文献
36.
Vladimir Bajic 《Applied economics》2013,45(4):597-610
This paper uses a two-step approach to estimate a system of structural demand equations for housing attributes. Estimation of a hedonic price regression, in the first step, yields implicit prices for housing attributes for the Toronto Metropolitan area in 1978, which are then used to estimate the expenditure share equations derived from the indirect translog utility function. Empirical results indicate that the composite housing attributes (used in the second stage model) are own-price elastic, while an examination of cross price relationships reveals that these attributes are reasonably substitutable. 相似文献
37.
The paper examines the distribution of unemployment experience in Britain within the framework of the Han and Hausman semi-parametric estimator, which has the advantage of circumventing problems associated with individual heterogeneity arising from unobserved individual characteristics. The results imply that the unemployment burden is unequally distributed among the working population. Males and females bear an unequal unemployment burden. The study casts light on the characteristics of those individuals who are most likely to experience a high unemployment burden. 相似文献
38.
Vladimir A. Bragin Expert VLADIMIR V. OSAKOVSKY Senior Expert 《Post - Communist Economies》2013,25(1):33-46
To specify the problem of unemployment in Russia, we estimate the natural rate of unemployment by consecutively estimating the optimal size of the labour force and the optimal employment. For estimation of the optimal values we used a modified Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. The results show that the natural rate of unemployment in Russia during 1994–97 was stable around 13–13.5% and decreased to 7.1% by mid-2004. Moreover, before 1998 the actual unemployment was significantly lower than the natural rate and today practically equals it. 相似文献
39.
This study, based on panel data from 189 industrial enterprises in 1992‐96, shows that privatisation 'on average' produces little improvement in performance of Russian enterprises. However, disaggregating the process, we reveal that methods of privatisation do influence performance but the impact is not always positive. The state seems to be a passive shareholder. At the same time, our results suggest that majority state ownership is preferable to a state minority stockholding, possibly because the absence of a monitoring shareholder in the latter case does not permit managers to achieve their own objectives at the expense of other shareholders. 相似文献
40.
Informality is a defining characteristic of labour markets in developing and transition countries. This paper analyzes patterns of mobility across different forms of formal and informal employment in Russia. Using the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey household panel we estimate a dynamic multinomial logit model with individual heterogeneity and correct for the initial conditions problem. Simulations show that structural state dependence is weak and that transition rates from informal to formal employment are not lower than from non-employment. These results lend support to the integrated view of the labour market. 相似文献