Time varying country risk: an assessment of alternative modelling techniques

Three different techniques for the estimation of a time-varying beta are investigated: a bivariate GARCH model, the Schwert and Seguin approach, and the Kalman filter method. These approaches are applied to a set of monthly Morgan Stanley country index data over the period 1970 to 1995 and their relative performances compared. In-sample forecast tests of the performance of each of these methods for generating conditional beta suggest that the GARCH-based estimates of risk generate the lowest forecast error although these are not necessarily significantly less than those generated by the other techniques considered.     

Trading Volume-Induced Spatial Autocorrelation in Real Estate Prices

Spatial dependence is often seen as a problem in econometrics rather than in economics. This study seeks to find an economic explanation for spatially correlated real estate prices. We posit spatial dependence as a process to discover price information from neighboring property transactions. Weaker spatial dependence is expected when price information in the immediate vicinity of a subject property is abundant. In the context of apartment buildings, in addition to the more commonly known horizontal dependence, there is also spatial dependence in the vertical dimension within the same building. Based on more than 18,000 transactions of highly homogeneous apartment units in Hong Kong, we found that the trading volume of a building depresses horizontal spatial dependence, but raises vertical spatial dependence. This not only confirmed the role of trading volume in the real estate price discovery process, but also questioned the validity of constant spatial autocorrelation assumption adopted in many studies.     

The potential benefits of herbicide-resistant transgenic rice in Uruguay: Lessons for small developing countries

In many developing countries, the potential benefits from adopting a transgenic variety developed by a multinational corporation are limited by the crop’s small production base. This paper presents an ex-ante evaluation of the economic impact of herbicide resistant transgenic rice in a small developing country, Uruguay. To fully account for the multinational’s market power, the firm’s seed markup is assumed to affect the adoption rate for the variety. Stochastic simulation techniques are employed to understand how potential benefits may vary with changes in technology, yield, costs, and adoption parameters. The results indicate a $1.82 million mean net present value for producers from the development and utilization of transgenic rice in Uruguay and $0.55 million for the multinational. These relatively small multinational firm benefits suggest that a firm will not undertake significant efforts to develop transgenic varieties adapted to local conditions without either strategic partnerships with local institutions or access to wider regional markets.     

Relation‐specific capabilities and barriers to knowledge transfers: creating advantage through network relationships

This study examines the role of network knowledge resources in influencing firm performance. More specifically: Can a firm that uses the identical supplier network as competitors and purchases similar inputs from the same plants achieve a competitive advantage through that network? In a sample of U.S. automotive suppliers selling to both Toyota and U.S. automakers, we found that greater knowledge sharing on the part of Toyota resulted in a faster rate of learning within the suppliers' manufacturing operations devoted to Toyota. Indeed, from 1990 to 1996 suppliers reduced defects by 50 percent for Toyota vs. only 26 percent for their largest U.S. customer. The quality differences were found to persist within suppliers because the inter‐organizational routines and policies at GM, Ford, and Chrysler acted as barriers to knowledge transfers within suppliers' plants. These findings empirically demonstrate that network resources have a significant influence on firm performance. We also show that some firm resources and capabilities are relation‐specific and are not easily transferable (redeployable) to other buyers or networks. This result implies that a firm may be on its production possibility frontier for each customer but the productivity frontier will be different for each customer owing to constraints associated with the customer's network. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Behavioral assumptions and theory development: the case of transaction cost economics

From a critical realist perspective, I discuss the role played by behavioral assumptions in organization theories, and use transaction cost economics as an illustrative example. Core behavioral assumptions often constitute the foundation of the mechanismic explanations of a theory, and thus should play a pivotal role in theory development. I distinguish between assumption‐based and assumption‐omitted theory testing, and show that empirical research in transaction cost economics has been dominated by assumption‐omitted testing. To establish a solid foundation for a new theory, management researchers should pay more attention to assumption‐based testing. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

All work intensity is not created equal: Effort motives,job satisfaction and quit intentions at a grocery chain

Prior research has shown that the well-being of employees engaged in intensive work can vary with the discretion their jobs afford regarding how and when to carry out the work. This article explores a different avenue. It argues that well-being also varies with employees’ individual motives for working intensively. The article introduces self-determination theory to the domain of work intensity and focuses on two hypotheses. The first is whether intensive work driven by explicit or implicit incentives is more positively associated with an employee's job satisfaction than intensive work driven by job demands. The second is whether intensive work driven by intrinsic motives is more positively associated with job satisfaction than that driven by explicit or implicit incentives. In both these cases, the article also examines whether equivalent effects exist on (reduced) quit intentions. Original data from a major Greek grocery chain provide corroborative evidence that is robust to a rich set of covariates, including increasingly demanding adjustments for job discretion. The findings contribute to a more complete understanding of why differences in well-being exist among employees performing intensive work, with implications for workers and employers.     

The effect of a potential borrower's reporting reputation and financial condition on commercial loan officers' estimates of forecast bias and subsequent loan recommendations

This paper investigates whether a potential borrower's reporting reputation and financial condition affect commercial loan officers' loan judgments and recommendations after receiving an earnings forecast that predicts improved financial performance. The results suggest that the earnings forecast is perceived as more credible in the presence of (1) a reputation for objective reporting, and (2) strong financial condition. Also, a reputation for objective reporting allowed the borrower to more credibly convey the expected improvement in performance when financial condition was weak. However, while financial condition predictably affects loan recommendations (likelihood of granting the loan, interest rate), reporting reputation does not. While we find that commercial loan officers discount forecasts under similar circumstances as stock analysts, results suggest that the consequences of developing a reputation for aggressive reporting (e.g., aggressive selection of accounting methods and estimates within GAAP) may be greater in a stock valuation setting (prior research documents lower stock prices) than in a loan setting.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of model specifications and estimation approaches for empirical accounting-based valuation models

This study considers the effectiveness of different model specifications and estimation approaches for empirical accounting-based valuation models in the UK. Primarily, we are interested in the accounting determinants of market value and, in particular, whether accounting-based valuation models can be estimated that not only have in-sample explanatory power but also potentially can be used as a tool of financial statement analysis in developing useful estimates of value out-of-sample. This requires models to be estimated on one sample, and tested for effectiveness on a different sample. Then, issues of model specification arise, together with choosing between methods of estimating the empirical models, in identifying the effectiveness of each combination. Using the criteria of bias and accuracy to capture effectiveness, we suggest estimation methods and models that, overall, provide the most effective models in this context.