关于中部六省旅游联动共谋中部崛起的探讨

中部崛起关系我国经济发展的全局，具有重要战略意义。借鉴长三角地区成功发展的启示，中部地区要实现崛起必须在发挥六省各自优势的同时，充分进行区域协作，实行区域联动。在目前六省竞争有余，协作不足的情况下，有必要利用六省旅游资源丰富、互补性强，旅游产业发展态势良好的有利条件，充分发挥旅游业关联带动作用明显、区域协作性强的产业持质，以旅游业为中部六省联动的首选行业，进行六省区的协作，实现六省旅游资源、客源市场共享，域内各级政府与旅游企业间的联动。并以此为范例，带动其他产业的协作与联动，开创六省上下一条心、紧抓机遇共谋崛起的良好局面。     

Television-Induced Tourism: Evidence from Croatia

Atlantic Economic Journal - This paper analyzes the extent to which the filming of the popular television show Game of Thrones affected tourism in the Croatian city of Dubrovnik. Using monthly data...     

Maintaining a Reputation for Consistently Beating Earnings Expectations and the Slippery Slope to Earnings Manipulation

This paper investigates whether maintaining a reputation for consistently beating analysts' earnings expectations can motivate executives to move from “within GAAP” earnings management to “outside of GAAP” earnings manipulation. We analyze firms subject to SEC enforcement actions and find that these firms consistently beat analysts' quarterly earnings forecasts in the three years prior to the manipulation period and continue to do so by smaller “beats” during the manipulation period. We find that manipulating firms beat expectations around 86 percent of the time in the 12 quarters prior to the manipulation period (versus 75 percent for control firms) and that manipulation often ends with a miss in expectations. We document that executives of manipulating firms face strong stock market and CEO pressure to perform. Prior to the manipulation period, these firms have high analyst optimism, growing institutional interest, and high market valuations, along with powerful CEOs. Further, we find that maintaining a reputation for beating expectations is more important than CEO overconfidence and is incremental to CEO equity incentives for explaining manipulation. Our results suggest that pressure to maintain a reputation for beating analysts' expectations can encourage aggressive accounting and, ultimately, earnings manipulation.     

Measuring the Transaction sector in the Australian economy, 1911–1991

Following Wallis and North's pioneering attempt to estimate the size of transaction costs in the United States over the period 1870 to 1970, we seek to augment this seminal study by applying their methodology to the Australian economy for the period 1911 to 1991. Broadly speaking, our results support the Wallis and North finding with comparable magnitudes and growth rates in both the private and public transaction sectors.     

The sexual division of care in mainland China and Hong Kong

The aim of this paper is to explore the extent to which the sexual division of domestic labour in Hong Kong and mainland China is influenced by traditional Chinese values and contemporary political and economic factors. It discovers that women in these two societies assume far more caring responsibilities than men. This is similar to women in traditional Chinese society. An important reason is that the political and economic conditions in Hong Kong and mainland China favour the reproduction of traditional Chinese values. Hence it can be argued that the unequal division of domestic labour between men and women will continue as long as the political and economic conditions are unfavourable to women. Le but de cet article est d’explorer jusqu’à quel point les valeurs chinoises traditionnelles et les facteurs politiques et économiques contemporains influencent la division sexuelle du travail domestique à Hong Kong et en Chine. Cet article a découvert que, dans ces deux sociétés, les femmes ont beaucoup plus de reponsabilités sociales que les hommes. Ceci est similaire à la société chinoise traditionnelle. Une raison importante est que les conditions politiques et économiques à Hong Kong et en Chine favorisent la reproduction des valeurs chinoises traditionnelles. On peut donc dire que la division inégale du travail domestique entre les hommes et les femmes continuera tant que les conditions politiques et économiques seront désavantageuses pour les femmes.     

Design and application of task administration protocols for collaborative production and service systems

This research investigates the design of Task Administration Protocols (TAPs) for effective task allocation and administration in collaborative production/service systems. Customer-focused and concurrent engineering service systems process tasks more effectively as a result of the power of collaboration among multiple participants. In such environments, however, complex situations might arise that require decisions that cannot be handled by simple Coordination Protocols (CPs). To design an effective control mechanism to manage complex situations, this research identifies basic problems in collaborative task administration and proposes the design framework of protocols to solve the problems. In the framework, TAPs consist of three component-protocols: (1) Task Requirement Analysis Protocol, (2) Shared Resource Allocation Protocol, and (3) Synchronization and Time-Out Protocol. Each component protocol is activated to address priority-based allocation, resource-aware allocation, and task re-allocation at a different task administration context, ranging from task initialization, task allocation, to task monitoring, respectively. To analyze feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed design, TAPs are applied to two collaborative production/service systems. Simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance achieved by different TAPs and non-TAP CPs under various load conditions. The results show that there is a significant performance improvement by TAPs over CPs in most cases, e.g., 84% vs. 64% in terms of task completion ratio. The advantage of TAPs can be explained by their design with relatively higher level of collaborative intelligence, addressing more complex control logic than non-TAP CPs.     

The market distortion effects of mortgage tightening and transaction taxes: Evidence from Hong Kong residential resale market

By using transaction-level data, we study if two popular policies intended to cool an overheated housing market would serve their intended purposes. We found both mortgage tightening and Special Stamp Duties (SSD) actually led to higher starter home prices in Hong Kong. Mortgage tightening shifted the demand for bigger homes to that for smaller ones. The SSD that applies to resales within a specified period of the original purchase lowered turnover across the housing market. The decline in turnover is, as expected, sharpest for small flats, implying a dramatic shrinkage in second-hand supply of such homes, driving their prices up. We also found transactions bunching as many homes are held till the SSD is no longer applicable, indicating lock-in effects. Relative to those that are not subject to the SSD, the prices of properties subject to the levy are found to be lower by 6.8%.     

Exchange Rate Predictability in Finite Samples

The goal of the present study is to re‐examine the exchange rate predictability with an approach that accounts for the negative effect of the finite‐sample estimation error on forecast accuracy in the in‐sample test. We consider various exchange rate models and find that despite the presence of significant population‐level predictive content in the exchange rate model, the coefficients of the predictive variables could be small enough that, with the available sample, they are estimated so imprecisely that a random walk model can be expected to forecast at least as well as the exchange rate model.     

Unobservable Contracts as Precommitments

It is well known that signing publicly observable contracts with third parties is a means of credibly committing to certain actions and hence may yield strategic advantages. Previous work on the commitment value of unobservable contracts has been limited to normal form games and extensive form games in which only one party has the option to sign a contract. In this paper, we extend the analysis to extensive form games in which both players can sign contracts, and characterize the set of sequential equilibria. We show that any Nash equilibrium outcome of the original game in which both players receive more than their individually rational payoffs can be supported as a sequential equilibrium outcome. Therefore, delegation acts not only as a commitment device to gain advantage over the opponent, but also as a cooperative device to attain Pareto improvements over the subgame perfect equilibrium outcome. I would like to thank Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Jean-Pierre Benoit, Alberto Bisin, Boyan Jovanovic, Ehud Kalai, Giuseppe Lopomo, George Mailath, Efe Ok, Ariel Rubinstein, Andy Schotter, seminar participants at various universities and conferences, and anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. Support from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and Program for Economic Research at Columbia University is also gratefully acknowledged.     

Preferred shopping destination: Hong Kong versus Singapore

Visitor shopping is an important contributor to the economy of Hong Kong as it accounts for more than half the total visitors' expenditure. Owing to its significance, and strong competition from Singapore, Hong Kong must re‐examine the city's attraction to shoppers. The tourism and retail industries of Hong Kong must formulate effective strategies to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the shopping environment in both cities. This study surveys 309 international visitors about their shopping expectations and perceptions of Hong Kong and Singapore in 15 attributes. Results were analysed by SPSS software (Statistical Package for Social Science) using the techniques of frequencies and paired t‐tests. Singapore outperforms Hong Kong notably in many areas, such as language ability, attitude and efficiency of service staff. The findings indicate an urgency for Hong Kong to strive harder. In conclusion, the article provides some recommendations for the city to re‐establish its reputation as the ‘shopping paradise’ of the Asia Pacific region and to meet the challenge of Singapore as the preferred shopping destination. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.