Robustness of Forecasting Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies with Data Revisions—A Note

Data revisions routinely introduced by the World Bank can lead to significant revisions in empirical results. We show this by re-estimating our aggregate indicator for predicting the 1997 Asian crisis utilizing the 1999 and 2004 updates of the 1996 World Bank data and comparing these results to those we obtained (this Journal, 2000) for predicting the same event using the original, unrevised, 1996 World Bank data. Since most data-gathering organizations routinely revise their data, this may represent a much greater problem for policy makers than might be recognized.     

Marked recovery in the world economy

With expansion accelerating strongly since last summer, the world economy has overcome an extended period of weakness. The USA, driven by highly expansive fiscal policies, is once again proving to be an important locomotive for global economic development. The strong fiscal stimulus will diminish sharply this year, however. Can the recovery continue nonetheless? This is of importance for the euro area in particular, where exports have so far been the primary foundation of economic resurgence. Is the substantial appreciation of the euro jeopardising prospects of catching up with the rest of the world?     

A minimum corporate tax rate would be harmful for both high and low tax countries

Conclusion  The corporate tax policy of the new EU member states does create pressures for some of the old member states to reduce their corporate taxes, in particular statutory corporate tax rates. But reacting to this pressure by enforcing mimimum tax rates in the EU would be counterproductive. It would slow down the economic catching up process in eastern Europe and question the competitiveness of the entire EU as a location for investment compared to other countries and regions in the world economy. There are potential benefits from more coordination in the field of corporate taxation, but this coordination should aim at removing tax obstacles to border-crossing investment and at reducing the compliance costs of the tax system. This requires targeted measures in the area of tax base coordination. Introducing minimum corporate tax rates, in contrast, would be harmful for both high and low tax countries in the EU.     

Global economy gathering strength

Encouraged by a highly expansionary economic policy, the global economy is enjoying a rapid upturn. Utilisation of capacity is high in many sectors, particularly in the growth centres of the USA and East Asia, where China leads the field. With inflationary risks on the increase, most countries are now shifting the focus of economic policy. Fiscal policy in particular can be expected to provide little in the way of further stimulus. In addition, there has been a turnaround in interest rates in many countries. Yet how quickly can the monetary reins be tightened without jeopardising growth or endangering price stability?     

New ways of achieving debt sustainability beyond the enhanced HIPC Initiative

In 1996 the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative was launched by the Bretton Woods institutions to reduce the external debt burden of low-income countries (LICs) to sustainable levels in a reasonably short period of time because debt constitutes an obstacle to sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction. In some HIPCs, however, debt sustainability has been in danger despite debt relief under the HIPC Initiative. Debt relief is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for development. It can do no more than play a catalytic role. The question, then, is how to achieve debt sustainability beyond the HIPC Initiative.     

Management Information System – A Tool for Corporate Sustainability

This paper represents the attempt to define a methodology that can evaluate the degree to which companies' information systems correspond to needs determined by the objectives of sustainability the firm imposes on itself. The result is the creation of a general model which define the correct approach to evaluating information systems – a model which should be adapted to the specificity of each single company which intends to adopt it. In the chart indicated, we obviously have not considered activities connected to the implementation of the survey system, which are particular to each company's situation. The first part of the paper consists of an overall introduction to the approach that has been used to assess the (MIS) of Granarolo, one of the Italian companies involved. The case study contains a profile of the company, the analysis of its MIS referred to the three dimensions of sustainability, and an evaluation of the strong points and issues to be developed. This approach to evaluate the gap between desired requirements of an information system for sustainability and current data available in a firm, has proved its consistency and usefulness. It helps to understand where data are, which dimensions, spheres, stakeholders account for and what is the level of integration between different information systems existing in the firm.     

Dynamic supernetworks for the integration of social networks and supply chains with electronic commerce: modeling and analysis of buyer–seller relationships with computations

In this paper, we develop a dynamic supernetwork framework for the modeling and analysis of supply chains with electronic commerce that also includes the role that relationships play. Manufacturers are assumed to produce a homogeneous product and to sell it either through physical or electronic links to retailers and/or directly to consumers through electronic links. Retailers, in turn, can sell the product through physical links to consumers. Increasing relationship levels in our framework are assumed to reduce transaction costs as well as risk and to have some additional value for both sellers and buyers. Establishing those relationship levels incurs some costs that have to be borne by the decision-makers in the supernetwork, which is multilevel in structure and consists of the supply chain and the social network. The decision-makers, who are located at distinct tiers in the supernetwork, try to optimize their objective functions and are faced with multiple criteria including relationship-related ones and weight them according to their preferences. We establish the optimality conditions for the manufacturers, retailers, and consumers, derive the equilibrium conditions, and provide the variational inequality formulation. We then present the projected dynamical system, which describes the disequilibrium dynamics of the product transactions, relationship levels, and prices on the supernetwork, and whose set of stationary points coincides with the set of solutions of the variational inequality problem. We also illustrate the dynamic supernetwork model through several numerical examples, for which the explicit equilibrium patterns are computed.     

Exports versus FDI: do firms use FDI as a mechanism to smooth demand volatility?

In this paper, we first develop a simple two-period model of oligopoly to show that, under demand uncertainty, whether a firm chooses to serve foreign markets by exports or via foreign direct investment (FDI) may depend on demand volatility along with other well-known determinants such as size of market demand and trade costs. Although fast transport such as air shipment is an option for exporting firms to smooth volatile demand in foreign markets, market volatility may systematically trigger the firms to undertake FDI. We then use a rich panel of US firms’ sales to 56 countries between 1999 and 2004 to confront this theoretical prediction and show strong evidence in support of the prediction