Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies

Various theories have been proposed to explain momentum in stock returns. We test the gradual-information-diffusion model of Hong and Stein (1999) and establish three key results. First, once one moves past the very smallest stocks, the profitability of momentum strategies declines sharply with firm size. Second, holding size fixed, momentum strategies work better among stocks with low analyst coverage. Finally, the effect of analyst coverage is greater for stocks that are past losers than for past winners. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that firm-specific information, especially negative information, diffuses only gradually across the investing public.     

Customer relationship management and company performance—the mediating role of new product performance

Customer Relationship Management (CRM) is widely accepted as an effective approach for collecting, analyzing, and translating valuable customer information into managerial action. However, the potential of CRM has been investigated only in the context of existing products. CRM’s potential to aid in future new product development (NPD) has been neglected. We develop a conceptual framework in which multiple facets of CRM are linked to new product and company performance. We test this model based on a cross-functional sample consisting of 115 R&D and 122 Marketing managers from firms spanning multiple industries. The results provide evidence that CRM has a positive effect on new product performance and further, that this effect is moderated by CRM reward systems but not CRM technology. We also show that new product performance mediates the relationship between CRM and company performance. These findings have important implications for research and practice in both the CRM and NPD areas.     

A diffusion approximation for the ruin function of a risk process with compounding assets

Abstract

The traditional theory of collective risk is concerned with fluctuations in the capital reserve {Y(t): t ?O} of an insurance company. The classical model represents {Y(t)} as a positive constant x (initial capital) plus a deterministic linear function (cumulative income) minus a compound Poisson process (cumulative claims). The central problem is to determine the ruin probability ψ(x) that capital ever falls to zero. It is known that, under reasonable assumptions, one can approximate {Y(t)} by an appropriate Wiener process and hence ψ(.) by the corresponding exponential function of (Brownian) first passage probabilities. This paper considers the classical model modified by the assumption that interest is earned continuously on current capital at rate β > O. It is argued that Y(t) can in this case be approximated by a diffusion process Y*(t) which is closely related to the classical Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The diffusion {Y*(t)}, which we call compounding Brownian motion, reduces to the ordinary Wiener process when β = O. The first passage probabilities for Y*(t) are found to form a truncated normal distribution, which approximates the ruin function ψ(.) for the model with compounding assets. The approximate expression for ψ(.) is compared against the exact expression for a special case in which the latter is known. Assuming parameter values for which one would anticipate a good approximation, the two expressions are found to agree extremely well over a wide range of initial asset levels.     

Direct observation of search behavior in the purchase of two nondurable products

This study examines external information search for nondurable products using a relatively unobtrusive measurement technique in an effort to minimize the demand bias inherent in many previous search studies. An attempt is made to explain differences in search behavior using five groups of predictive variables: decision task, shopping lifestyles, general shopping behavior, personality, and demographics. The findings support the notion of very limited search in the purchase of common, inexpensive, low involvement goods. Variables related to the decision task appear to be the best predictors of external information search behavior.     

Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?

Even though stock returns are not highly autocorrelated, there is a spurious regression bias in predictive regressions for stock returns related to the classic studies of Yule (1926) and Granger and Newbold (1974) . Data mining for predictor variables interacts with spurious regression bias. The two effects reinforce each other, because more highly persistent series are more likely to be found significant in the search for predictor variables. Our simulations suggest that many of the regressions in the literature, based on individual predictor variables, may be spurious.