Nonlinear duration dependence in stock market cycles

We reexamine duration dependence in stock market cycles using a generalized Weibull model. Recent empirical work by Cochran and DeFina [Cochran, S. J., & DeFina, R. H. (1995). Duration dependence in the U.S. stock market cycle: A parametric approach. Applied Financial Economics, 5, 309-318.], who use a chronology of stock market cycles to estimate a Weibull hazard model, shows duration dependence in stock prices. They find evidence of duration dependence in prewar market expansions and postwar market contractions. We update their postwar sample, then use a more flexible model that finds evidence of duration dependence for all prewar and postwar samples. The generalized Weibull model is shown to be statistically superior to the conventional Weibull model for all samples except prewar expansions.     

Supplier involvement in new product development in the food industry

Purchasing and supplier involvement as one possible explanatory factor of product development success has been gathering growing attention from both managers and researchers. This paper presents the results of a Dutch benchmark study into supplier involvement in product development, and discusses the topic more specifically in the context of the food industry. Regarding supplier involvement, this industry has not been studied intensively, although its specific characteristics make continuous development of new products imperative and the amount of outsourcing of production and development has increased substantially. The benchmark was conducted by means of an existing framework which has not yet been applied to the food industry. The food company in the benchmark study performs consistently better than companies from other industries. At the same time, the results of a similar case study carried out at a Scandinavian food company show contradictory results. By comparing the Dutch and the Scandinavian case, we illustrate that our analytical framework can explain these different results in terms of the underlying processes and pre-conditions, thereby validating its application to the food industry.     

A conceptual model of how people adopt recreation activities

This paper reports an investigation of the process which mediates between preoccupations and interests and the point at which a specific recreational activity is adopted. In conceptualizing this process, a phenomenological approach is utilized with three series of interviews. The practical application of the model was also explored, using a written questionnaire. Four necessary and sufficient conditions: opportunity, knowledge, favourable social milieu and receptiveness, are identified. The concept of a key event is used to explain how these are integrated, often being modified in the process, so as to result in adoption when a satisfying experience is anticipated.     

Motives behind willingness to pay for improving biodiversity in a water ecosystem: Economics, ethics and social psychology

This paper reports on empirical work extending the standard economic approach to valuation by including psychological and philosophical factors. More specifically a contingent valuation method survey was applied to biodiversity improvement while simultaneously assessing rights based beliefs, consequentialism and the theory of planned behaviour. The latter was assessed using measures of attitudes, subjective norms and perceptions of control over willingness to pay. The results show that standard socio-economic explanatory variables are far inferior to those of social psychology and philosophy, and that these factors offer a better understanding of the motives behind responses to contingent valuation. The implication is that alternative means of measuring an individual's pluralistic values should be taken into account in order to assess the validity and meaning of willingness to pay.     

Income inequality as an indicator of discrimination in housing markets

In this article we develop an alternative empirical method for identifying discrimination in the housing market, and test it using 1980 census data for the city of Philadelphia and four counties that are in close proximity to Philadelphia. A variety of models are estimated, and the results of the analysis appear to support the view that discrimination was an important factor in both the central city county of Philadelphia, and the suburban counties.     

The Distribution of Income Shocks during Crises: An Application of Quantile Analysis to Mexico, 1992-95

Moving beyond the simple comparisons of averages typical ofmost analyses of household income shocks, this article employsquantile analysis to generate a complete distribution of suchshocks by type of household during the 1995 crisis in Mexico.It compares the distributions across normal and crisis periodsto see whether observed differences were due to the crisis orare intrinsic to the household types. Alternatively, it askswhether the distribution of shocks during normal periods wasa reasonable predictor of vulnerability to income shocks duringcrises. It finds large differences in the distribution of shocksby household types both before and during the crisis but littlechange in their relative positions during the crisis. The impactappears to have been spread fairly evenly. Households headedby people with less education (poor), single mothers, or peopleworking in the informal sector do not appear to experience disproportionateincome drops either in normal times or during crises.     

The Expectation Gap: the Next Step

The financial reporting and auditing phenomenon known as the "expectation gap" has been the subject of extensive inquiries and research. In Australia, the professional accounting bodies undertook an analysis of this work and in 1994 produced a comprehensive report including recommendations for "bridging the expectation gap". Following public discussion of this study, the professional bodies commissioned a taskforce to make a further report on the recommendations. That report, completed early in 1996, appears to have failed to meet its objective.     

Race,job training,and economic development: Barriers to racial equity in program planning

This article examines barriers to implementing government programs designed to redress racial economic exclusion. The authors review the current urban employment environment, and the need for more extensive job training and education programs targeting young African Americans. A case study is presented of the implementation of one such program in Ohio, the High Unemployment Population Program. It demonstrates that the most well designed program can fail if staff charged with implementation are not committed to its goals. In the current racially charged environment of the country, this barrier to implementation is likely to affect many new government programs throughout the 1990s. The article concludes with several recommendations for successful program implementation.