Additive and Multiplicative Uncertainty Revisited: What Explains the Contrasting Biases?

above the certainty level while for additive uncertainty the price should be lower than the certainty level. This note gives an intuitive explanation for the result after first presenting a parsimonious review of the two models. We also discuss which, if either, of the two models is more realistic. Received December 14, 2001; revised version received July 16, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003 We thank referees for helpful comments. Ciaran Driver would like to acknowledge the research facilities from ANU, Canberra for their help in writing this paper.     

4800HP平台供应船钢材利用情况跟踪调查

在船舶产品建造过程中,造船成本一般占船价的90％左右,其中材料设备成本占全部造船成本的70％左右,而在材料设备中,船体钢材是重头戏,提高钢材利用率是降低造船成本的重要因素,它直接影响到产品实际成本。为进一步提高我厂市场竞争力,提高钢材的利用水平,必须摸清目前钢材在我厂船舶产品建造过程中的利用率。根据工厂生产经营情况,确定以4800HP平台供应船为跟踪调查对象,查清此型船从设计该船的所需钢材的净重、工艺定额、钢材领用、材料代用、非工艺性损     

统计循环波动分析在资产评估收益法中的应用

循环波动是社会经济现象带有规律性的周期波动。资产评估收益法中分段法前段期限的确定目前缺乏定量分析，应用循环波动分析解决这一问题，可以提高分段法评估的准确程度。     

我国反国际避税的措施

一、我国存在的国际避税的常见形式1.利用国际投资避税由于各国的税收制度和税收优惠政策不同,一些企业就利用不同的投资方式和各国税收政策的差异进行避税。一是利用非常设机构避税。绝大多数国家利用“常设机构”的概念,作为对非居民个人或非居住地公司征税的依据。在经合组织和联合国分别起草的《经合组织范本》和《联合国范本》中,对常设机构规定了以下判别标准:企业有进行全部或部分营业的固定场所,或者非居民在一国内利用代理人从事活动,而该代理人(不论是否具有独立地位)有代表该非居民经常签订合同、接受订单的权利。各国之间签订的…     

iTV: A major opportunity for financial services,or not?

Interactive television has arrived, thanks to substantial technology investments that have been made by Sky and others. It is growing in importance as innovative interactive applications are developed for broadcast programmes (eg the BBCi service and Big Brother), and for advertising — and will develop further when broadband deployment gets to critical mass. Readers should not expect a television-variant of the world wide web, however. This was tried during 2000–2002 in the form of web look-alike, interactive ‘walled garden’ sites, and failed to attract critical mass footfall. The model has evolved and now revolves around interactive content synchronised with broadcast, which offers financial services companies an interesting new way to increase awareness and to differentiate the service presentation. Furthermore, over the next ten years, broadband is expected to usher in a new era of personalised television — in which specialised broadcasts (such as personal pensions advice programmes) can be made available on demand. The observations in this paper are mainly drawn from the UK, where digital television penetration is high; the lessons can be applied more broadly, however, and are relevant to any organisation thinking of promoting its service through entertainment channels.     

惊艳惟美酥油花——大隐于青藏高原的艺术探奇

随心结缘派的酥油花塑制品 郭沫若先生生前在北京曾闻听藏族学者更登曲培提及在青藏高原上有一种油塑艺术，说它的塑制品精美绝伦、奇艳无比，名曰——酥油花，观之能疗疾、食之能益寿！     

公共真实中的社会和谐

公共真实是社会和谐必不可少的条件。只有在享有公共真实的社会中,人们才能有效地一起辨认当前生活中的不和谐因素,并一起克服这些因素。这样一个允许自由讨论和共同行动的社会空间就是公民社会。公民社会是就它做什么,而不是就它是什么而言的。公民社会不单单是一个拥有形式公民身份者构成的社会,而是一个让普通人能通过说真话和积极参与起到公民作用的社会。公民社会的和谐是由每一个公民的宪法权利来保障的。在公民社会中,生活在和谐之中,也就是生活在公共真实之中。公共真实是社会和谐的基础,社会和谐则是公共真实的结果。