Imaginable surprise in global change science

Decisionmakers at all scales (individuals, firms, and local, national, and international governmental organizations) are concerned about reducing their vulnerability to (or the likelihood of) unexpected events, 'surprises.' After briefly and selectively reviewing the literature on uncertainty and surprise, we adopt a definition of 'surprise' that does not include the strict requirement that it apply to a wholly unexpected outcome, but rather recognizes that many events are often anticipated by some, even if not most observers. Thus, we define 'imaginable surprise' as events or processes that depart from the expectations of some definable community. Therefore, what gets labelled as 'surprise' depends on the extent to which what happens departs from community expectations and on the salience of the problem. We offer a typology of surprise that distinguishes imaginable surprises from risk and uncertainty, and develops several kinds of impediments to overcoming ignorances. These range from the need for more 'normal science' to phenomenological impediments (e.g., inherentunpredictability in some chaotic systems) to epistemological ignorance (e.g., ideological blocks to reducing ignorance). Based on the input of some two dozen scholars at an Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Workshop in 1994 *, we construct two tables in which participants offer many possible 'imaginable surprises' in the global change context, as well as their potential salience for creating unexpectedly high or low carbon dioxide emissions. Improving the anticipation of surprises is an interdisciplinary enterprise that should offer a sceptical welcoming of outlier ideas and methods.     

Context sensitive multimodal road planning: a case study in Cape Town, South Africa

Road planning practice relies almost exclusively on parameters related to traffic factors, such as private vehicle speeds and volumes. In many developing countries the requirements for public transport and non-motorised transport are not explicitly integrated into the planning process, despite the fact that these form the primary mode of transport for the majority of the population. This affects the mobility opportunities for these sectors of the population and contributes to poor road safety, especially with regards to pedestrians. The research outlined in the paper posits that, in order to assess the usage and needs of the road holistically, other factors related to the adjacent land uses, socio-economic characteristics of the population the road serves, and the environmental context within which the road is located, factors heavily in how the road is used and should, therefore, be considered within the planning process. The paper describes a methodology to include these factors in the planning of roads. The method attempts to prioritise amongst the five primary road based modes (public transport, car, freight, walking and cycling) based upon a combination of traffic and non-traffic factors. The method employed uses a geographic information system (GIS) based spatial multiple criteria evaluation (SMCE) model with inputs from widely available data sources such as census, household travel surveys, land use and environmental data to arrive at solutions for modal priorities. A case study is conducted along an arterial route in Cape Town, South Africa, providing infrastructure planning recommendations and audit possibilities for the future. Since weighting is an important driver in the SMCE process, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the effect of alternative weighting schemes on the outputs from the method.     

Situational and trait interactions among goal orientations

Regulatory focus theory has been used to describe and explain a wide range of consumer responses. This goal orientation has been examined both as a chronic difference and a situational variable. Yet, it is unclear how a situational manipulation interacts with the individual??s chronic goal orientation. The present research investigates the potential for interactions and suggests that typical outcomes of regulatory focus are likely to emerge more clearly under circumstances in which promotion focus is manipulated. The studies demonstrate asymmetric effects in the interactions of chronic and situational manipulations of regulatory focus using different manipulations and outcome variables. The implications of these findings are significant for any research involving the manipulation of variables that can also be considered as chronic tendencies.     

The out-of-region bias: Distance estimations based on geographic category membership

This research addresses estimations of distance, an important factor in numerous consumer decisions (e.g., store choice, willingness to pay for travel). Our central hypothesis is that when two places are located in the same geographic category, individuals estimate them to be closer to each other than when they are located in different categories, a bias we term ??the out-of-region bias.?? In study 1, we demonstrate that participants are more willing to visit a store located in the city in which they live rather than a store located in a neighboring city because they mistakenly think that a store in their city is closer to home. In studies 2a and b, we show that the out-of-region bias leads consumers to express higher willingness to pay for an airline ticket that involves travel across versus within regions because they inaccurately estimate greater distance between cities that are located in different regions (vs. the same region). Study 2a also demonstrates that the out-of-region bias is ameliorated in the presence of a map, indicating that the bias is a conceptual (vs. perceptual) bias, and study 2b rules out an alternative explanation for our results based on consumers?? tendency to exaggerate north?Csouth distances.     

OTC MARKET SWITCHING AND STOCK RETURNS: SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

In this study the effect on the common stock returns of 278 firms that switched OTC market segments from 1982 to 1987 is examined. It is hypothesized that abnormally positive returns are associated with news of the move from the NASDAQ to the NASDAQ National Market System (NMS) and that the market responds more favorably during pre-NMS inclusion for stocks with low versus high liquidity before switching. Using event study methodology, results support these hypotheses. Unlike post-listing studies, the evidence reveals no anomalous return behavior during the post-NMS inclusion period studied.     

A Comparative Study of the Benefits of Applying Target Cost Contracts Between South Australia and Hong Kong

This article aims to identify and analyze the key benefits of adopting Guaranteed Maximum Price and Target Cost Contracts (GMP/TCC) over and above the traditional lump‐sum contractual arrangement through an empirical questionnaire survey conducted in South Australia and compared with the findings in Hong Kong. The Mann‐Whitney U Test indicated differences in perception between the two groups of respondents on the majority of the identified benefits. The study has provided an in‐depth understanding of the perceived benefits of the GMP/TCC scheme, hence leading to a wider application of those alternative integrated procurement strategies in both regions for reference by the construction community at large.