Relevance weighted likelihood for dependent data

The relevance-weighted likelihood function weights individual contributions to the likelihood according to their relevance for the inferential problem of interest. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the weighted maximum likelihood estimator were previously proved for independent sequences of random variables. We extend these results to apply to dependent sequences, and, in so doing, provide a unified approach to a number of diverse problems in dependent data. In particular, we provide a heretofore unknown approach for dealing with heterogeneity in adaptive designs, and unify the smoothing approach that appears in many foundational papers for independent data. Applications are given in clinical trials, psychophysics experiments, time series models, transition models, and nonparametric regression. Received: April 2000     

Herding in analyst earnings forecasts: evidence from the United Kingdom

We present an empirical analysis of herding behavior in analyst forecasts of earnings-per-share. Herding is defined as 'excessive agreement' among analyst predictions, i.e., a surprising degree of consensus relative to the predictability of corporate earnings. The data are for U.K. companies between 1986 and 1997. We examine the effects of forecast horizon and analyst coverage on forecast accuracy and dispersion. The evidence supports overoptimism, overreaction, and herding in analyst forecasts.
G1, G14     

Should you set up your own sales force or should you outsource it? Pitfalls in the standard analysis

Should you set up your own sales force or should you outsource it? The standard analysis is cost based and assumes that the direct sales force is a fixed cost and that the outsourced sales force's cost varies with sales. The standard analysis then calculates the sales volume at which the direct sales force's costs equal the outsourced sales force's costs and suggests that for sales volume above that quantity, firms should use a direct sales force. This analysis has two problems. First, several other cost factors are not considered in the standard analysis. Second, the standard analysis considers only cost, ignoring coverage efficiency and selling effectiveness differences between the two sales forces. Both problems will be detailed and developed in this paper.     

Economic impacts of highway infrastructure improvements part 2. The operational model and its application to Ontario communities

The environmental assessment process in Ontario requires an assessment of the economic impacts of highway infrastructure improvements. This paper describes an operational model that is based on the analytical framework introduced in Kanaroglou et al (1997). The model makes use of widely available data and can be used as a planning tool for fast and efficient assessment of short term direct and indirect local economic impacts in terms of a community's sectoral employment levels. The accuracy of the assessment can be improved by modifying the model parameters using information collected locally. The model can presently be applied to communities in Ontario.     

The Industrialization of the Southeast Since 1950: Some Causes of Manufacturing Relocation, With Speculation About Its Effects

A bstract . Although wide recognition has been given to the recent industrialization of the Southeast, little attention has been directed toward specific causes and the societal effects of this economic change. A concentration in manufacturing has occurred frequently in low-wage, low-growth industries as a result of labor surpluses and certain external economies in the region and also as a result of deglomerative forces acting in the older established manufacturing areas. It would appear that these compositional changes in the region's economy would lead to societal changes in an urbanistic direction.     

Franchising and Trademark Protection in China

With the downturn in the US economy well into its fourth year,American and Canadian franchisors are increasingly looking to international markets to secure new franchisees.As the worlds' second largest economy and with the largest middleclass anywhere,China is generating an increasing amount of attention.     

The Effect of the Tipped Minimum Wage on Employees in the U.S. Restaurant Industry

According to federal law in 2013, employers can take a credit of up to $5.12 for tips received by workers in satisfying the minimum‐wage requirement of $7.25. This article uses interstate variation in laws regarding tip credits and minimum wages to identify the effects of reducing or eliminating the tip credit on employment, hours, and earnings in the U.S. restaurant industry. Using data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and the Current Population Survey, we find that a reduction in the tip credit increases weekly earnings but reduces employment in the full‐service restaurant industry and for tipped workers. The results are robust to controls for spatial heterogeneity in employment trends and are supported by a series of falsification tests.     

Pro forma accounting disclosures: The effect of reconciliations and financial reporting knowledge on nonprofessional investors' judgments

Regulation G requires companies that report non-GAAP or “pro forma” earnings provide a reconciliation. While nonprofessional investors are a large, heterogeneous population with varying degrees of financial reporting knowledge, previous research treats them as a homogenous group. The study examines how differences in financial reporting knowledge and information viewing behavior affect the influence of reconciled pro forma earnings disclosures on nonprofessional investors' judgments. Lower-knowledge investors appear to incorporate information on differences between GAAP and pro forma earnings in their judgments as long as they view this information in the reconciliation. However, higher-knowledge investors appear to consistently incorporate information on differences between GAAP and pro forma earnings in their judgments regardless of the relative amount of time they spend viewing the reconciliation relative to other disclosures. Our results suggest that knowledge differences influence how nonprofessional investors acquire and use information on differences between GAAP and pro forma earnings.     

An Unconventional Conglomerateur: Henry Singleton and Teledyne

Capital allocation involves decisions about raising and returning capital, and about acquiring and selling companies—all of which can have major effects on shareholder value. Rather than judging CEOs by growth in revenues or earnings, the author argues that they should be judged by increases in the per share value of the companies they manage and also in comparison with the returns generated by peer firms and the broader market. Successful CEOs have been able to overcome the “institutional imperative”—the tendency of managers to focus on the sheer size of their enterprises and to avoid doing things that might be seen as unconventional. In this chapter from his recent book, The Outsiders, which provides accounts of eight remarkably successful and long‐tenured CEOs, the author describes the successful management by Henry Singleton of the conglomerate Teledyne from 1963 to 1990, a period during which the company's shareholders enjoyed annualized returns of over 20%. During the 1960s, the company produced high returns mainly by making large acquisitions funded by new equity issues. During the 1970s and '80s, by contrast, Teledyne used massive share repurchases to return excess capital to shareholders. Thus, Singleton adjusted his capital allocation strategy in response to changes in product and financial markets—and to changes in the perceived difference between market and intrinsic values. When investors provided capital with relatively low required rates of return, as in the 1960s, Singleton was an aggressive buyer investor in a wide range of businesses. But when interest rates were high and equity valuations were low, as in the 1970s and early 1980s, Singleton used share repurchases to create value by reducing investment and limiting growth. The company's shareholders were well rewarded in both environments.