ESTIMATING SOURCES OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL MARKET: AN APPLICATION OF VAR METHODS

Vector autoregression (VAR) methods are used to analyse the contribution of supply, demand and policy shocks to unpredictable fluctuations in the market for Australian wool. VAR procedures are compared with conventional structural econometric models as methods for decomposing sources of instability. While each has advantages and disadvantages, VAR procedures might be viewed as preferable when the underlying market structure is complex and uncertain, as it is in the case of wool. Based on the results obtained, demand shocks are the dominant source of uncertainty in the wool market in the absence of Australian Wool Corporation intervention, but intervention has blunted their effects, reducing market uncertainty and increasing the average level of prices and revenues.     

Friend or Foe?— Farmer Perceptions of Biotechnologh1

This paper is the result of survey investigation the attitudes of Western Canadian farmers toward two biotechonological products, ENFIX-L and PB-50. Farmers were asked to rate both the importance and the performance of 21 attributes of the products. Soil depletion was found to be an important concern to many farmers. personal and environmental risks were less of a concern. Overall, it was found that the non-biotech-nological aspects of a product would prevail in purchasing decisions.     

Investing in Health: A Macroeconomic Exploration of Short-Run and Long-Run Trade-Offs

This paper aims to unravel the competing effects of health investment. It explores, both analytically and numerically, the equilibrium shift and transitional dynamics after a one-time policy of health investment. We find that such a policy improves health status in the long run, but harms economic growth in both the short- and long-term. The relative sizes of these competing effects depend on the specific health parameters. Within the plausible range for the value of health relative to consumption, households gain welfare in the long run as long as the effectiveness of labor in health production is large. The expanded health sector policy makes households worse off only if labor is rather unproductive in producing health and if households value health relatively little. Nevertheless, the findings challenge the policy recommendations of the World Bank (1993) and World Health Organization (2001) in that good health does not necessarily increase the productivity of workers and the economic growth rate. We hope that the relative simplicity of our model, compared to the existing theoretical literature, can help close the gap between formal academic work on this topic and actual debates among policy makers in both developed and developing countries.     

Evolutionary Stability in the Investment-Opportunism-Retaliation Game

Can economically efficient outcomes be obtained and sustained in the absence of externally enforced property rights? We study the evolutionary properties of a game that exhibits two well-defined Nash equilibria: one generates an inefficient outcome while the other set generates an efficient outcome supported by the potential for retaliation. Although standard forward-looking refinements eliminate the efficient equilibrium, neither equilibrium type satisfies strict evolutionary stability criteria. However, both types of equilibrium define strategies that are neutrally stable, which makes them vulnerable to drift in dynamic environments. We conduct computer simulation experiments in which players learn adaptively via a tournament selection mechanism called sophisticated experimentation. Our simulations demonstrate that while the system spends a disproportionately high proportion of time in the inefficient equilibrium set, the efficient equilibrium is pervasive as the system drifts back and forth between the equilibrium sets, never settling on one or the other.     

Salesperson stereotypes,consumer emotions,and their impact on information processing

This study examines salesperson stereotypes and their effect on the selling environment. After reviewing relevant literature, the authors advance a hierarchical structure of salesperson stereotype categories. Experimental results suggest that stereotypes influence consumer emotions, and these emotions then mediate the relationship between stereotype activation and subsequent consumer cognitions. He received his Ph.D. from Louisiana State University in 1991. His expertise is in the area of consumer behavior and research methods. Current research topics center on consumption-related emotions, their measurement, and their impact on decision making. His research appears in theJournal of Consumer Research, Journal of Business Research, Journal of Consumer Affairs, Advances in Consumer Research, as well as in numerous other national and regional publications. He received his Ph.D. from Louisiana State University. His research centers on sales management and the conflicting roles of salespeople. His work appears in prestigious outlets such as theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Journal of Personal Selling and Sales Management, Journal of Marketing Education, as well as in various conference proceedings. He received his Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina. He was named Outstanding Marketing Educator by the Academy of Marketing Science in 1990. He has published more than 400 scholarly articles in prestigious outlets such as theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Marketing Research, andJournal of Marketing.     

Transaction utility effects when quality is uncertain

The existing literature finds that price discrepancy, which represents the difference between expected and observed price, helps explain brand choice and purchase intention. This effect is often attributed to transaction utility, that is, the incremental utility associated with the surprise of observing a price lower or higher than expected. This research considers the possibility, however, that transaction utility is a less important determinant of choice when quality is uncertain. We propose and find that acquisition utility (perceived value for the money) tends to dominate the explanation of purchase intention, but transaction utility is significant only when consumers are more certain about quality. Our discussion considers the relative role of transaction utility in explaining consumer decision making and how the informative and allocative roles of price might be distinguished. He received his Ph.D. in marketing from Ohio State University and his B.S. from Ohio State University. His research interests include information economics and pricing. Previously, he taught at the University of South Carolina. He has published in theJournal of Consumer Research, Journal of Marketing, andJournal of Retailing, among others. He received his Ph.D. at the University of South Carolina, his M.B.A. from the University of Georgia, and a B.S. degree from Clemson University. Previously, he taught at the University of Alabama. His research interests include consumer perceptions of value and interpersonal influences. He has published in theJournal of Consumer Research and theJournal of Marketing Research, among others. He received his Ph.D. in marketing from the University of South Carolina and has a Bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Delhi. His research interests include price bundling, price effects on perceived quality perceptions, and segmentation of business-to-business markets. He has published in theJournal of Business Research and theAdvances in Consumer Research series, published by the Association of Consumer Research. He previously taught on the faculty of Valdosta State University. She received a B.S. in statistics, a Ph.D. in marketing from the University of South Carolina, and a M.S. in statistics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute. She previously taught at Lehigh University. Her research interests include market segmentation, discrete data analysis, and pricing. She has published in theJournal of Marketing Research, as well as in theProceedings of the American Marketing Association and theAssociation for Consumer Research.     

Consumer information cues in television advertising: A cross country analysis

This paper compares the number of consumer information cues found in television advertisements in three countries: Australia, Ecuador, and the United States. Earlier studies conducted by Resnick and Stern in the United States and Dowling in Australia were replicated in Ecuador. Content analysis of 108 Ecuadorian television advertisements evaluated the number and types of information cues in each commercial. Results indicate that a much greater proportion of Ecuadorian television commercials contain consumer information cues than those broadcast in the other two countries. The explanation suggested for this observation is that Ecuador, due to its level of economic development, has many more products in the introductory stages of the product life cycle. This situation, in turn, requires more extensive communication of consumer information to market the products effectively. This finding implies an additional dimension, information content level, which must be considered when adapting international campaigns to conditions in developing countries.