ERP与CRM双管齐下共筑企业竞争优势

分析了ERP系统和CRM系统各自的优势、局限性及其差别，说明了只有两个系统相互支持，在企业内部形成一个闭合系统，才能内外兼顾，为企业筑造新的竞争优势。     

Detections of changes in return by a wavelet smoother with conditional heteroscedastic volatility

In this paper, we propose two estimators, an integral estimator and a discretized estimator, for the wavelet coefficient of regression functions in nonparametric regression models with heteroscedastic variance. These estimators can be used to test the jumps of the regression function. The model allows for lagged-dependent variables and other mixing regressors. The asymptotic distributions of the statistics are established, and the asymptotic critical values are analytically obtained from the asymptotic distribution. We also use the test to determine consistent estimators for the locations of change points. The jump sizes and locations of change points can be consistently estimated using wavelet coefficients, and the convergency rates of these estimators are derived. We perform some Monte Carlo simulations to check the powers and sizes of the test statistics. Finally, we give practical examples in finance and economics to detect changes in stock returns and short-term interest rates using the empirical wavelet method.     

人力资源管理强度的研究回顾及在中国情境下的理论框架建构

人力资源管理强度能够从整体上反映企业人力资源管理的效果,在组织管理实践中具有重要的指导作用.但以往关于人力资源管理强度的探讨主要集中于西方情境,这极大地限制了其在中国情境下的发展.因此,本文立足于中国情境,在对现有人力资源管理强度进行理论回顾的基础上,构建了中国情境下人力资源管理强度的研究框架,并从维度、测量与实证研究三个方面进行了未来展望.     

An intelligent service matching method for mechanical equipment condition monitoring using the fibre Bragg grating sensor network

Due to the advantages of being able to function under harsh environmental conditions and serving as a distributed condition information source in a networked monitoring system, the fibre Bragg grating (FBG) sensor network has attracted considerable attention for equipment online condition monitoring. To provide an overall conditional view of the mechanical equipment operation, a networked service-oriented condition monitoring framework based on FBG sensing is proposed, together with an intelligent matching method for supporting monitoring service management. In the novel framework, three classes of progressive service matching approaches, including service-chain knowledge database service matching, multi-objective constrained service matching and workflow-driven human-interactive service matching, are developed and integrated with an enhanced particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm as well as a workflow-driven mechanism. Moreover, the manufacturing domain ontology, FBG sensor network structure and monitoring object are considered to facilitate the automatic matching of condition monitoring services to overcome the limitations of traditional service processing methods. The experimental results demonstrate that FBG monitoring services can be selected intelligently, and the developed condition monitoring system can be re-built rapidly as new equipment joins the framework. The effectiveness of the service matching method is also verified by implementing a prototype system together with its performance analysis.     

One-sided hyperbolic simultaneous confidence bands for multiple and polynomial regression models

A simultaneous confidence band is a useful statistical tool in a simultaneous inference procedure. In recent years several papers were published that consider various applications of simultaneous confidence bands, see for example Al-Saidy et al. (Biometrika 59:1056–1062, 2003), Liu et al. (J Am Stat Assoc 99:395–403, 2004), Piegorsch et al. (J R Stat Soc 54:245–258, 2005) and Liu et al. (Aust N Z J Stat 55(4):421–434, 2014). In this article, we provide methods for constructing one-sided hyperbolic imultaneous confidence bands for both the multiple regression model over a rectangular region and the polynomial regression model over an interval. These methods use numerical quadrature. Examples are included to illustrate the methods. These approaches can be applied to more general regression models such as fixed-effect or random-effect generalized linear regression models to construct large sample approximate one-sided hyperbolic simultaneous confidence bands.     

20世纪20至30年代的中德贸易条件及价格变动趋势分析

中德贸易在中国近代对外贸易中占有十分重要的地位,本文通过对民国中期中德贸易中主要进出口商品的价格指数及其变动的系统量化分析,对中德贸易的综合贸易条件,出口个别贸易条件和进口个别贸易条件分别进行细致的统计和计算。大量的统计数据证明,中德贸易个别贸易条件中出口贸易条件有利于中国的成份居多,而进口贸易条件却在朝着不利于中国的方面发展。两相比较,出口贸易条件指数上升的速度要快于进口贸易条件指数下降的速度,就综合贸易条件而言,还是对中国有利的因素要多一些。     

社会保障的新理念与中国农民扶持性社会保障体制

中国的市场化改革使广大的中国农民直接暴露在现代市场经济风险下,而家庭联产承包制的实施又使改革开放前与计划经济体制相适应的保障体制无法运转,这样,中国广大农民成为了现代市场经济中最没有保障的弱势群体。因此,建立农民社会保障体系的意义重大。中国农民社会保障体制迟迟没有建立的原因有二:其一,传统社会保障理念仅考虑到其工具价值,忽视了其目的价值;其二,农民的组织化程度低,导致他们在社会利益分割过程中没有谈判地位。从建立农民社会保障体制的双重价值出发,建立保障农民生存权和基本发展权的农民扶持性社会保障体制具有重要意义。     

不同所有制企业创新主体地位评价 ——规模与效率双重视角的研究

推动企业成为创新决策、研发投入、科研组织和成果应用的主体,是实施创新驱动发展战略的关键。针对企业创新主体地位较难衡量且缺乏考虑企业创新效率的问题,从规模视角入手,基于创新价值链分析,通过区分企业所有制性质,研究企业创新主体地位评价指标体系和评价方法。同时,结合BCC-DEA模型和DEA-Malmquist指数,从创新效率角度系统探讨企业创新主体地位。以上海为例的实证结果表明,上海企业在研发投入端的创新主体地位相对突出,但呈不断弱化趋势,尤其是R&D经费增长显著落后于科研机构和高等院校;在以发明专利为代表的产出端,企业创新主体地位尚不明显,且同样存在比重下滑迹象。外资企业年度创新效率表现最优,内资企业处于明显劣势,但得益于技术效率增长,科技创新全要素生产率保持年均微幅增长,而港澳台商投资企业创新效率存在递减态势。最后提出加强科技资源配置、挖掘科技产出、加大科技成果转化力度等建议。     

“中国模式”的蜕变

1840年以前,中国用自身原创的理论治理和发展国家,创造了一套古老的‘‘中国模式”。1840年,古老的“中国模式”被打破,中国开始不断向外部世界学习治国之道。中国共产党以马克思主义为指导,以中国特色社会主义理论为框架,将这种向外部世界的学习推进到最高阶段,取得了巨大成就。但中国特色社会主义,其理论核心是外来的马克思主义和古代中国传统文化,从本质上讲仍然是一种通过向别人和古人的“学习”而推动的发展模式。未来,中国共产党应该逐渐创造出原生的,先进的,具有吸引力的智力财富,以此解决自身问题,突破自身瓶颈,完成从“学习”到“自身创造”的蜕变。     

欧盟在巴以和平进程中的作用分析

欧盟积极参与巴以谈判和巴以冲突危机处理,以经济和财政支持为主要手段、构建区域合作机制,为缓和巴以关系创造条件,提供多层次平台,积极帮助解决巴以冲突问题。然而,由于巴以矛盾的复杂性、欧盟成员国缺乏采取共同行动的政治意愿、加之美国对巴以和平进程的掌控,欧盟的影响力受到限制。在中东变局下,欧盟有必要联合中国和俄罗斯组成平衡美以关系的国际力量,提出新的巴以和平计划,为推动巴以和平进程发挥独特作用。