Optimal model averaging forecasting in high-dimensional survival analysis

This article considers ultrahigh-dimensional forecasting problems with survival response variables. We propose a two-step model averaging procedure for improving the forecasting accuracy of the true conditional mean of a survival response variable. The first step is to construct a class of candidate models, each with low-dimensional covariates. For this, a feature screening procedure is developed to separate the active and inactive predictors through a marginal Buckley–James index, and to group covariates with a similar index size together to form regression models with survival response variables. The proposed screening method can select active predictors under covariate-dependent censoring, and enjoys sure screening consistency under mild regularity conditions. The second step is to find the optimal model weights for averaging by adapting a delete-one cross-validation criterion, without the standard constraint that the weights sum to one. The theoretical results show that the delete-one cross-validation criterion achieves the lowest possible forecasting loss asymptotically. Numerical studies demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed variable screening and model averaging procedures over existing methods.     

Influence analysis for Poisson inverse Gaussian regression models based on the EM algorithm

For Poisson inverse Gaussian regression models, it is very complicated to obtain the influence measures based on the traditional method, because the associated likelihood function involves intractable expressions, such as the modified Bessel function. In this paper, the EM algorithm is employed as a basis to derive diagnostic measures for the models by treating them as a mixed Poisson regression with the weights from the inverse Gaussian distributions. Several diagnostic measures are obtained in both case-deletion model and local influence analysis, based on the conditional expectation of the complete-data log-likelihood function in the EM algorithm. Two numerical examples are given to illustrate the results.     

Social norms, information, and trust among strangers: theory and evidence

Can a social norm of trust and reciprocity emerge among strangers? We investigate this question by examining behavior in an experiment where subjects repeatedly play a two-player binary “trust” game. Players are randomly and anonymously paired with one another in each period. The main questions addressed are whether a social norm of trust and reciprocity emerges under the most extreme information restriction (anonymous community-wide enforcement) or whether trust and reciprocity require additional, individual-specific information about a player’s past history of play and whether that information must be provided freely or at some cost. In the absence of such reputational information, we find that a social norm of trust and reciprocity is difficult to sustain. The provision of reputational information on past individual decisions significantly increases trust and reciprocity, with longer histories yielding the best outcomes. Importantly, we find that making reputational information available at a small cost may also lead to a significant improvement in trust and reciprocity, despite the fact that most subjects do not choose to purchase this information.     

地区竞争与中国的经济增长

以土地为核心的招商引资是中国县际竞争的主要表现之一。层层承包责任合约的施行将中国的土地权利向个人进行了事实上的界定,但这种界定又是不完全界定,因此必然导致"过度投资"。不过,后者在潜在人口红利以及欧美高工资、高福利导致超强国外吸收存在的条件下,反而催生了中国长期的高速增长。文章分析指出了土地招商县际竞争促进中国经济增长的约束条件,以及随着约束条件的转变,中国经济需要进行的结构调整及其相应的政策措施。     

中美利率与汇率之间的联动关系研究

在归纳利率与汇率的联动机理和理论关系的基础上,文章采用计量经济方法对中美利率和汇率关系进行实证研究,结果发现:中美利率与汇率之间的关系呈现出多样化的态势;美国利率对汇率的传导效果要高于中国利率;中美利率对汇率的影响要大于汇率对中美利率的影响,指出中国的利率市场化的改革、人民币汇率形成机制的完善以及金融市场间的传导建设仍需深入。     

福建民营制造业高质量发展现状、问题及发展对策

制造业的高质量发展是实现经济高质量发展的关键和基石,2019年中央经济工作会议将推进制造业高质量发展作为七项重点工作任务之首,成为我国建设制造强国新的战略定位。本文力求通过了解福建民营制造业发展现状、发展过程中存在的不足和难点,有针对性地提出促进福建民营制造业高质量发展的对策建议,为福建民营制造业发展提供参考。     

软开关技术及其应用

软开关技术是近年来国际、国内电力电子领域的研究热点，本介绍了软开关的结构和工作原理，详细分析了软开关技术在DC-DC变换器和变频器逆变电路中的应用。     

国有企业集团内部资本市场运行效率:基于双重代理关系的分析

本文选取深沪两地140家国有集团附属上市公司与100家非集团国有上市公司2003-2007年的平衡面板数据作为样本,从双重代理关系的视角实证分析了内部资本市场的运行效率。理论分析与经验证据均显示:(1)国有企业集团内部资本市场上的主导代理关系为管理层代理关系,而非控股股东代理关系,即影响国有企业集团内部资本市场效率的代理问题为管理层代理问题,国有控股股东由于缺位并没有将内部资本市场异化为其进行利益侵占的隐蔽渠道;(2)从集团总部层面来讲,内部资本市场能够有效配置资金,但从成员公司的层面来讲,总部与成员公司经理的代理问题使内部资本市场的功能受损。     

创业者经验对创业机会识别影响模型构建

基于现有创业经验学习研究文献,清晰地界定了创业机会识别、创业者经验、创业学习和创业自我效能的概念,划分其维度,深入探讨了创业者经验对创业机会识别的作用机制,提出相关理论命题,构建了创业者经验-创业学习、创业自我效能-创业机会识别理论模型,为创业者经验实证研究奠定了必要的理论基础。在此基础上,指出研究局限,并对未来创业者经验研究方向进行了展望。     

什么都涨,工资不涨?——价格刚性下通货膨胀对劳动收入比重的影响

什么都在涨,就是工资没有涨.工资的刚性,意味着通货膨胀的提高可以带来短期内实际工资下降、就业增加和产出水平的增加.如果就业效应占据支配地位,那么适度通货膨胀将有利于改善劳动收入比重.文章借鉴Calvo(1983)的随机定价模型,利用"从一般到特殊"的动态计量方法,实证研究了通货膨胀短期内对劳动收入比重的影响.研究显示:短期内,通货膨胀率每增长1%,可以推动劳动份额平均上升0.05%;长期中这一估计效应下降至0.03%.文章研究表明,劳动力市场工资调整的刚性可能是中国劳动收入比重下降的重要短期因素之一.